Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Economy: Another Setback For The China-Crash Callers

(Drivebycuriosity) - Today was another setback for the China-crash callers (bloomberg  businessinsider). This morning we learned that China's trade growth accelerated in January: exports grew 10.6% (December plus 4.3%) and imports advanced 10.0% (December plus 8.3%). It seems that the Asian economy is benefitting from the strength of the U.S. economy and the recovery of Europe.

As usual, these numbers were dismissed and denied by a lot of commentators. There is a tradition to call all positive China data "false" and "faked". For years China bears like New York Times correspondent Paul Krugman and Jim Chanos, a hedge fund manager and notorious short seller, have been banging the "China crash drum"  (driveby). The China crash callers claim that China is suffering from huge structural problems like too high debts and too huge investments into real estate which would cause a "hard landing" of the Chinese economy.

But the reality doesn`t confirm the crash scenario. Last year China´s economy grew 7.7%, the same rate as in 2012. Retail sales have been growing around 13%. I think that the solid trade numbers are a sign that China`s economy is getting stronger in the coming months.

I expect that the second largest economy of the world will deliver additional tailwinds for the global economy in the coming months - besides the recovery of Europe. This also could boost China´s stock market which has been flatlined since summer 2012.

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