Economics: Welcome To The Roaring Twenties

(Drivebycuriosity) - A new decade has begun. I think the coming years will be even more prosperous than the benign 2010s. Maybe a new "roaring twenties" started. One hundred years ago, from 1919 till 1929, an economic boom happened which led let to significant changes in lifestyle and culture.  These "roaring twenties" were turbocharged by a technological revolution which changed the whole world. Then sharply falling costs & prices led to explosive sales growth of cars & radios. A lot of other things, including telephones, refrigerators, electric washing-machines, cosmetics, rayon (a synthetic fiber used for stockings & lingery instead of silk & wool) and many more goods also became much cheaper and available for the masses.

Today we are experiencing another industrial revolution driven by a rapid advance of information technology, meaning combinations of computers, smartphones and other digital systems via the Internet. Again many things & services are getting  much cheaper and so available for the masses. Smart phones for instance give everybody access to super computers (via cloud computing) for low & dropping costs. As a result internet-based firms and other technology companies are transforming the way humans work, shop and relax. The internet, which is getting faster, accelerates the spread of knowledge, along with its application, and fosters economic growth. This process is accelerating.

In 1999 Ray Kurzweil, futurist and "director of engineering" @ Google, had already formulated the "law of accelerating returns". Kurzweil, like many before him, described that the development of humanity is accelerating - and so does technology (a brief history ). The pace of technological progress—especially information technology—speeds up exponentially over time because there is a common force driving it forward.  Each new generation of technology stands on the shoulders of its predecessors (kurzweil). Improvements in technology enable the next generation even better technology. Because each generation of technology improves over the last, the rate of progress from version to version speeds up. Since the early 19th century (the first industrial revolution) the technological progress has been enabling companies to produce more & more goods & services with the same amount of employees. In the year 1981 Buckminster Fuller described “the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance" (acceleration). This process translates into falling costs, rising profit margins, climbing earnings & a growing global economy.

Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, recently declared that during the new decade," the defining secular trend will be the increasing rate of digitization of people, places, and things. This malleable power of software will drive productivity growth across all industries, leading to more inclusive economic growth far beyond the domains of consumer tech today" (seekingalpha).

In 2011 Marc Andreessen claimed that "software is eating the world" (a16z.com ). The technological development in the recent years and steeply climbing stock prices of software-focused companies give him right. Andreessen observed that "more and more major businesses and industries are being run on software and delivered as online services — from movies to agriculture to national defense. More than four billion people worldwide own smartphones, giving every owner instant access to the full power of the Internet, every moment of every day".

( source )



The digitization increases the flow of information and reduces the cost of data. Data can be gained, processed and stored faster and cheaper. New ideas can spread faster, encouraging discoveries and inventions and boost the technological progress. Falling information costs are lifting the productivity of the economy, creating more markets and are raising incomes.

In the coming years software will be even more connected with the Internet via cloud computing. New technologies, like 5G, a high-speed wireless network, are making these connections much faster & stronger. Cloud providers like Amazon`s AWS are giving their customers access to giant external data centers - for very low & constantly dropping costs. The cloud works like a yeast for the whole economy. Cloud computing enables startups to launch faster and more cheaply,  Newcomers and established companies can use a massive & cheap computer power to introduce new products quickly without spending much for information technology (IT). Cloud computing supports companies to organize their whole business, to create new products,  to find cheap suppliers, to manage customer relations and so on. This means more choices, better products, and lower prices for consumers.

Via cloud computing everybody will be able to use Artificial Intelligence (AI), meaning software - like Amazon`s Alexa - which is capable to learn and to develop itself. Cloud companies also offer access to quantum computing which speeds up pace and capacity of calculating. These technologies help to manage highly complicated issues like weather prediction, genetic engineering and much more.

In the coming years more & more devices like thermostats,  TVs, refrigerators, household appliances will be connected to the world wide web which will make our life easier and create new markets for a lot of companies (Internet of Things). Smart watches for instance can be used for 24/7 medical observation and health monitoring to prevent heart attacks and to discover other medical problems.

The described digitization process supports radical changes in a lot of industries. The transport sector - which has been almost stagnating since the 1930s - is starting a new revolution. Tesla cars and other electric vehicles, which use a lot computer power, are beginning to replace combustion engines, driven by falling costs and a growing environmental awareness. Electric cars are already more efficient than traditional vehicles because they have fewer mechanical parts and Tesla`s Giga factories are more productive than traditional car producers (worth). Self-driving cars, buses, trucks & trains, all steered by AIs, will reduce the number of accidents and lower the costs of transportation because they are more efficient than human drivers. Drones, controlled by sophisticated software (of course), are reducing the time & costs of deliveries. Tesla CEO Elon Musk started the "Boring Company" which builds tunnel boring machines. He wants to dig a network of cheap tunnels which are optimized for electric vehicles. Musk also plans to implement  Hyperloop - a high-speed transportation system ( reduced-pressure tubes in which pressurized capsules ride on an air cushion driven by linear induction motors and air compressors). All these trends will make transportation much cheaper & environmentally friendly - creating another tailwind for the global economy.

The power of much faster & cheaper calculations will also support progress in engineering, robotics, nanotechnology & biotech. Robots, controlled by more or less intelligent software, will make factories more productive and eventually compensate for a shrinking workforce that will be a result of an ageing population. Software controlled machines will literally "print" parts of other machines and devices by using computational power, lasers and basic powdered metals and plastics (3D printing). In some years companies & persons can produce many things exactly bespoked for individual tastes with low costs. Technological progress will also enable the creation of new material, built at the atomic level (Nanotechnology). These trends could revolutionize everything from chemistry to aeronautics, for example, by creating new medicines, new fabrics and building material. Scientists are already working on a new material which is much stronger & lighter than steel (economist).

The secular shift to digital will also reshape the healthcare sector which could lead to a longer & more healthful life for all of us. Sophisticated machines (health technology ) are improving the quality of healthcare through earlier diagnosis, less invasive treatments and reductions in hospital stays and rehabilitation times. Advancing software, including machine learning (AI),  which is made cheap via cloud computing, will help develop better health systems and assist doctors with the diagnosis and deduction of disease. Digital systems also support  companies and university scientists to develop new vaccines and cures by adapting or exploiting processes found in living organisms (Biotechnology). Altering plants by genetic engineering makes them more resistant against pests and more tolerant of temperature changes and droughts. Food gets more affordable and could be enhanced with vaccines against cancers and other diseases.  

This technological progress will also curb energy prices by increasing energy supply & reducing energy demand. History shows that decades with cheap oil - like the 2010s and the period 1982 through 1999 - are prosperous, decades with expensive & volatile oil (like the 1970s and the 2000s) are not (driveby). Technological progress in the US (fracking) delivers relatively cheap oil & natural gas, reducing the dependency from unreliable sources like Russia & Opec. Therefore the risk of violent oil price spikes -which caused most recessions of the past - are very low. Alternate energies like solar & wind craft will get cheaper and luxury car producer Rolls-Royce and other companies want to develop small nuclear reactors, which would deliver cheaper energy without the emission of green house gases. Energy prices will also be curbed by reduced demand. New technologies, especially electric cars, trucks & buses will reduce the demand for gasoline significantly & curb global warming. 

The subdued costs for energy and falling prices for manufactured goods & food will keep inflation rates low. The Federal Reserve and other central banks don`t need to hike their interest rates sharply to break inflation which often caused a recessions & bear markets in the past. Therefore the low interest rates will continue for years and inspire investments that will add to the economic growth.

And the tailwinds from the emerging markets will get stronger thanks to the ongoing catching up process in China and other emerging markets. People in Asia, Latin America & Africa have a tremendous backlog demand because income & fortune are much lower than in the Western world. There are billions of talented & diligent people who want to reach the US and European standard. Therefore there are billions of people who are working hard and who are investing to be able to expand their consumer expenditures in the decades ahead. The emerging economies don`t need to invent the wheel twice, they benefit from the experience of the Western countries, the digitization and the falling information costs. China is already cutting edge in sectors like artificial intelligence, drones and high-speed train networks. Rapid growth of the economies in China & Co. means that many more people get well educated, becoming scientists, doctors, engineers, innovators, investors & entrepreneurs - a boost for the global economy.

To repeat myself: All these beneficial developments will work together, they will strengthen each other and might merge into a kind of Cambrian explosion, creating a benign snowball effect, which will foster a period of prosperity - the roaring twenties.

Enjoy!

Contemporary Art: Fancy Collages @ Gallery Perrotin New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Contemporary art is often entertainment. At gallery Perrotin on Manhattan´s Lower East Side I spotted the fancy collages by the Icelandic artist Erró (perrotin ). They display his works from the late 1950s through the current decade.

Above you can see his mural “The Last Picassorama” (2015 Alkyd paint on canvas 184 x 450 cm | 72 7/16 x 177 5/32 inch) and detail shots of it.

Above "Good Morning America" (1992 Alkyd paint on canvas 300 x 450 cm | 118 1/8 x 177 5/32 inch)

Above and below some his smaller collages.

To be continued

Economics: Why Fracking Made America Recession-Proof

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It`s now 11 years since the US suffered a recession - and there is no new recession around the corner. The long economic expansion reminds of the period from 1982 through 1999. There was just one short mild recession in the year 1991 - caused by spiking oil prices as a result of the first Iraq war. This is a sharp contrast to the period 2001 through 2009 which was plagued by spiking & volatile oil prices and 2 ugly recessions (charts below).

 (source  )

It appears that periods with cheap oil are prosperous, periods with expensive & volatile oil (like the 1970s and the 2000s) are not.  "Rapid increases in the price of oil have preceded almost all U.S. recessions" ( marginalrevolution  the article has a link to a study by Prof. Hamilton). You can see the relation between oil & recessions in the charts below (the dark columns show the recession years).

The causal relation between oil and recessions can be explained easily. Americans depend on gasoline. Many live in suburbs and in the hinterland and they need to drive a lot to go to work, to shop & to spend leisure time. High gas prices curb their available income. It is not surprising that high gas prices constrain consumer spending, the engine of the US economy. "Oil prices played a role in eventually bursting the US subprime bubble....In 2003, the average suburban household spent $1,422 a year on gasoline, which rose to $3,196 in 2008" (oilprice). "Rising household energy prices constrained household budgets and increased mortgage delinquency rates" (oilprice). Low income suburban homeowners suffered most from the rising gas prices. 
 

(source)

But around the year 2012 happened a fundamental change. In the US fracking took off and raised oil production sharply (chart below). This caused a sharp drop of oil prices and reduced their volatility (charts above). Today oil costs about half the price from 2012.

( source)

Fracking also expanded the supply of natural gas and send natural gas prices tumbling (chart below).

(source )

Relatively cheap energy fosters the economy because consumers spend less for driving & heating and companies have lower costs. Tame energy prices also keep inflation at bay because they are components of the consumer price index and the transportation costs influence the prices of bulky goods like food, furniture, building material and more. Therefore the Federal Reserve does not need to hike interest rates sharply to break an inflation mentality which could cause a recession.

The data make it clear that fracking reduced America´s dependency from unreliable oil producers like Russia, Venezuela, Opec & the Middle East region. Fracking also reduced energy costs and the volatility of gas and oil prices & curbs inflation. This way fracking eliminated the known causes for a recession. Fracking made America (almost) recession-proof.

Economics: Happy New Year China!

(Drivebycuriosity) - Today the Chinese celebrate their lunar New Year and the start of the "Year of Rat". During the now ending "Year of the Pig" China´s economy continued her slow landing and economic growth slowed to 6.1%. But the numbers from the economy front show a slight acceleration (driveby). In December industrial productions grew 6.9% year-on-year in December, accelerating from 6.2% growth in November and 4.7% growth in October. This was the sharpest yearly growth in industrial output since March last year, amid government support to prop up demand. Retail sales advanced in December & November each 8% the best growth since June. The robust numbers suggest that China weathers the trade war - and other problems - much better then her opponents think.

I think that the "Year of the Rat" will be prosperous. The numbers prove that the huge country is continuing her secular catching-up process, trade war or not. China`s growth is inspired by extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation values. Today China has about $9,800  income per capita, the US number is $62,600  (worldbank). China doesn`t have much commodities but it owns a huge amount of human capital: 1.4 billion people who are intelligent, who work hard and save a lot money to achieve a better life. Wikipedia counted in 2014 already "2,236 colleges and universities, with over 20 million students enrolled in mainland China" (wikipedia). The fast expanding knowledge is driving science & innovation, raising productivity and fostering economic growth (washingtonpost). Chinese corporations, think tanks & administrations can employ a large number of highly dedicated & educated people - a strong driver of economic growth (scottsumner).

China`s growth is fueled by a rapid transformation process.  The country is transforming from an industrial & export-focused economy into a modern system like the US, where most of the GNP is fueled by consumer spending. In the US consumer spending is the engine of the economy. China is on the way to became a modern economy. Many peasants are moving to the huge metropolitan centers which are spread all over the huge country to lift their standard of living. This creates a fast rising affluent middle class, giving consumer spending a boost as the strong retail sales demonstrate.

Happy New Year China!

Economics: Why Bigger Cities Would Slow Global Warming & Foster Economic Growth

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - There are a lot ideas about how to curb global warming. Usually they come with enormous costs and could slow global economic growth. But there exists a remedy: Motivating more people to move to big cities like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Paris & London. This would not only reduce global warming, it would also foster productivity & economic growth.

Today millions live in suburbs or in the hinterland, called the sprawl, and they need to drive a lot for jobs, labor & leisure. They burn of course a lot of gasoline and emit CO2 and contribute so to global warming. If a large number of Americans would move to the big cities they would burn much less gasoline.  I live in New York City and don´t need a car (and I don`t have one) because the distances are short. Most things can be done by walking or using subways & buses. Burning much less gasoline would significantly reduce the emission of CO2 and so slow global warming.

If millions would move to the big cities, more land could turn green again. Today large areas of the US - and other countries - are covered with concrete: Houses, shopping malls, streets, parking spaces. Some areas could be could be replanted with forests, bush- and grassland which would take CO2 out of the air and emit oxygen and so participate in the struggle against global warming.

I think New York City, Los Angeles, London, Madrid, Paris  & Co. could be much bigger. Many people would like to live there if they could afford the rents because there are so many opportunities for jobs, leisure, shopping & meeting people. But rents in New York City & Co. are way too high and flats are often not available. This is a result of misguided city management. NYC, Los Angeles & other metropolises limit their size because they have regulations (zoning laws) which limit construction, the heights of  buildings and the number of available apartments. If the big communities change their zoning laws and allow more & much higher buildings the cities could grow vertically and become much bigger. Skyscrapers  -  especially the new slim towers you can see now in Manhattan - don´t need much space. The new slim towers multiply the number of available apartments per square foot. So cities can grow vertically - and upwards is a lot of space, thanks to modern technologies.

Unfortunately the new skyscrapers are very expensive partly caused by zoning laws. The constructors need to buy additional "air rights" which allow them to buy the unused air space of their neighbors and add it on to their own lot  (theguardian). These "air rights" raise the costs of the new towers and so the rents & apartment prices. If the cities abandon the height limits they would reduce the construction costs and would allow raising the number of apartments significantly - which would raise the supply and so lower the rents. Taller high rises would enhance the supply of flats significantly and so reduce the rents. This is already proven by new Manhattan`s new mega-projects like Hudson Yard or Essex Crossing in lower Manhattan which include some flats with affordable rents (by lottery curbed ). Lower rents and more modern buildings would make big cities more attractive and would foster their growth. Economists Gilles Duranton, Diego Puga claim that if planning regulations were lifted entirely, NYC would reach about 40 million people, Philadelphia 38 million and Boston just shy of 30 million ( nber.org marginalrevolution  ).

It is well known that big & dense cities foster economic growth. The short distances raise the change and reduce the cost to find employers, employees, customers & business partners which translates into a higher productivity ( newyorkfed ). "Clusters of talented and ambitious people increase one another’s productivity and the productivity of the broader community, spurring economic growth," writes the city expert Richard Florida  (citylab).

NYC, LA & Co. could invest their higher tax income - caused by more citizens, more business, more jobs and higher productivity - into their infrastructure, especially subways, which also would keep street noise, pollution & congestion at bay and would raise their attractiveness further.

The growth of mega-cities would raise the consumtion of electricity of course - for subways, electric buses, elevators and such - which today creates already nearly 30% of the greenhouse gases. The US and other countries could follow France which reduced the CO2 emission by generating more electricity by nuclear plants. Today the French create about 80% of their electric power from nuclear plants, which emit zero CO2 (cleantechnica). More electric power from nukes would also lower the cost for electricity and animate more use of it for residential purposes (heating, cooking), which today generates about 10% of the greenhouse gases.  So the rise of mega-cities combined with a revival of nuclear energy would reduce the emission of CO2 significantly

 

Communities, city planers and developers could learn from Singapore, which has to deal with a very limited space (images above). The city-state created a "vertical village",  a building complex that contains 31 stacked’ residential blocks and is six stories tall. The construction includes swimming pools, tennis courts, gardens and roof terraces (independent). If the cities allow much higher buildings and construct vertical villages they would create enough free space between the towers for parks & ponds.

China already realizes these ideas. Metropolises like Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai & Shenzen are already turning into megacities with more than 20 million residents (cnn). Chengdu, the capital of the Sichuan province (population 14 million), plans to develop into a garden city with lots of parks & gardens between the skyscrapers (telegraph).  China's rulers also plan to weld some communities at the northeast coast together and to create a megapolis, called Jing-Jin-Ji, that would be home to 130 million people and cover an area the size of New England (nbcnews). China`s metropolises are already connected by the world's longest network of high-speed rail lines (13,670 miles), which serve trains traveling 120 mph to 220 mph.

There is still hope for the global climate.

Stock Market: Are We In A Perpetual Bull Market?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The bull market which started spring 2009 is still alive and kicking. Since the 2009 lows the US stock prices multiplied with the factor 5 (chart below). I believe this trend will continue this decade and beyond. We may be in a perpetual bull market!

( source )



The stock market benefits from relatively low energy prices - thanks to a rising US production caused by fracking - which translates into low inflation and low interest rates and gets tailwinds from the rise of Internet & other advancing technologies which reduces costs, enables new business models (Airbnb, Uber etc.) and creates new markets. The current bull markets reminds me of the similar period from 1982 till 2000 (chart below). Technically then was not a continuing bull market because in 1989 the stock market crashed overnight 23% and dropped in 1991 more than 20% during a short & mild recession  - caused by the first Iraq War - but the S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, multiplied with the factor 13. This period benefited from low energy prices (except 1991 when the first Iran war caused a short oil price spike) and technological progress, driven by advancing software and the advent of the Internet.

(source )


I think the positive stock market trend can continue for decades - even with some nasty but short-lived corrections. My optimism is based on following observations:

Companies are getting more efficient & more productive over time - thanks to learning processes and the technological progress. They are learning organisms because they are managed by humans who are continuously improving themselves and their companies. There is a permanent evolution process which is driving the productivity (output per worker) and the winners are getting fitter and more efficient than before. During the recessions of the years 2001/02 and 2008 companies restructured and reduced costs significantly in order to survive. Now they are much fitter and more efficient than before. I believe that this learning process will continue and translates into a long term trend of rising company earnings, the engine of the stock market.

Global growth, climbing company earnings & rising stock prices are fueled by the ongoing automation process.  Since the early 18th century (the first industrial revolution) the technological progress has been enabling companies to produce more & more goods & services with the same amount of employees. More and better machines (robots etc.) are doing the work of people which translates into lower costs, higher profit margins, climbing earnings & a growing global economy.

It seems that this process is accelerating and we are at the begin of new industrial revolution. We are experiencing a rapid advance of information technology, meaning combinations of computers, smartphones, Internet and other digital systems. Software - which is increasingly Internet connected and uses more and more the cloud (access to huge external data centers) - organizes the whole business: Creating new products, inducing machines to run more efficient, finding cheap suppliers, manage customer relations and so on. In the coming years software will be more & more capable to learn and develop into Artificial Intelligence (AI). The growing computerization of the economy will be accompanied by progress in engineering, robotics, nanotechnology & biotech. All these processes are further enhancing the efficiency of the companies and create new markets.

The tailwinds from the emerging markets should get stronger thanks to the ongoing catching up process in China and other emerging markets. People in Asia, Latin America & Africa have a tremendous backlog demand because income & fortune are much lower than in the Western world. But there are billions of talented & diligent people who want to reach the US and European standard. Therefore those people are working hard and they are investing to be able to expand their consumer expenditures in the decades ahead. The catching-up process in China, India, Indonesia and a lot of other countries translates into high growth in large parts of the global economy that creates continuously rising revenues & profits for global companies like Starbucks, IBM, Caterpillar, Apple, Microsoft, Google and other members of the S&P 500.
 
Energy prices will stay low thanks to fracking which increases the global oil supply. Technological progress will also reduce the costs for alternative energy sources, including wind and solar. New technologies, especially electric cars, trucks & buses will reduce the demand for gasoline.

The subdues costs for energy and falling prices for manufactured goods will keep inflation rates low. The Federal Reserve and other central banks don`t need to raise interest rate sharply to break inflation which often caused a recessions & bear markets in the past. Therefore the low interest rates will continue for years and inspire investments that will add to the economic growth.

I believe that these beneficial developments will strengthen each other and foster a period of prosperity and continuous gains on the stock market.

Enjoy!

 

Economics: Why China Survives The Trade War Better Than Her Opponents Think

(Drivebycuriosity) - If we believe the media, China is in a deep mess. Western media, banks, hedge funds and many pundits are drawing a gloomy & racist  picture of the "people`s republic". China skeptics - including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman - have been banging the "China-will-crash-drum" for years. But the reality disproves the gloomy predictions. Last night we we learned that the Chinese retail sales jumped 8% year-on-year in December (chart below).

(source)


China's industrial production grew 6.9% year-on-year in December, accelerating from 6.2% growth in November and 4.7% growth in October. This was the sharpest yearly growth in industrial output since March last year, amid government support to prop up demand (chart below).

(source)

The numbers prove that the huge country is continuing her secular catching-up process, trade war or not. China`s growth is inspired by extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation values. Today China has about $9,800  income per capita, the US number is $62,600  (worldbank). China doesn`t have much commodities but it owns a huge amount of human capital: 1.4 billion people who are intelligent, who work hard and save a lot money to achieve a better life. Wikipedia counted in 2014 already "2,236 colleges and universities, with over 20 million students enrolled in mainland China" (wikipedia). The fast expanding knowledge is driving science & innovation, raising productivity and fostering economic growth (washingtonpost). Chinese corporations, think tanks & administrations can employ a large number of highly dedicated & educated people - a strong driver of economic growth (scottsumner).

China`s growth is fueled by a rapid transformation process.  The country is transforming from an industrial & export-focused economy into a modern system like the US, where most of the GNP is fueled by consumer spending. In the US consumer spending is the engine of the economy. China is on the way to became a modern economy. Many peasants are moving to the huge metropolitan centers which are spread all over the huge country to lift their standard of living. This creates a fast rising affluent middle class, giving consumer spending a boost as the strong retail sales demonstrate.

The robust numbers from this morning suggest that China weathers the trade war better than her opponents think. 

Economics: Is The Time Ripe For A Basic Income?

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that the idea of an universal basic income is getting en vogue. The supporters propose that the government unconditionally pays all citizens an amount of money to cover basic needs. The idea isn`t new. In the 1960s Milton Friedman recommended a negative tax rate (nytimes). He proposed that people who earn less than a certain amount should get money from the state. Today politicians like Democrat Andrew Yang and billionaires like Zuckerberg propose a government financed guaranteed income. Yang calls this Freedom Dividend.

I find the idea very charming. I would be happy if the government would pay me a nice monthly income for doing nothing. It reminds me of the German fairy tale about the "Schlaraffenland", describing a country where everything is for free and milk & honey flow in abundance. But it would cause many problems. Some people might stay poor because they spend this money quickly for alcohol, drugs, gambling and other purposes. Some people may stop working because they don´t need that anymore. Economists call this a disincentive to work.

The biggest problem is the question, how to finance this generosity. Yang for instance wants to give all U.S. citizens ages 18 and over (about 250 million persons) $1,000 per month. The government would spend about $250 billion a month and $3 trillion a year! In 2018 the Treasury Department had a federal revenue of $3.33 trillion and spend $4.2 trillion. So the Freedom Dividend would hike the public expenses by about 80%. If the government would try to finance the spending spree by hiking taxes it would discourage working & investing and maybe cause a depression. 

But things are changing. Some day an universal income will make sense. Some day the ongoing automation process will have advanced much further and a much greater part of goods & services will be produced by robots and other machines. Not many people will work and things will cost therefore less than today. The owners of the machines and the minority of still working people would be much wealthier thanks to higher incomes, stock market gains & dividends.

Then the Treasury Department will collect much more tax revenues (by skimming much higher salaries, stock market gains & company profits) and could easily afford to pay everyone a basic income. We could reach this wonderful world faster if the government would excite  economic growth & technological progress by reducing taxes, tariffs and regulation - especially for new technologies.

Books: The Best Science Fiction Of The Year Volume 4 By Neil Clarke

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  I like science fiction. Unfortunately most science fiction novels disappoint. Often a writer has an interesting idea which carries a story about maybe 100 pages or less, but when she stretches the plot the story gets thinner and thinner and the text has too many fillers.  Just a minority of authors is capable to keep the tension over hundreds of pages. Therefore I usually skim collections of science fiction short stories in order to find some gems.

I just finished "The Best Science Fiction of the Year Volume 4", curated & edited by Neil Clarke (published July 2019 amazon). The series is a relatively newcomer in this market. For many years I have been reading the anthology "The Year`s Best Science Fiction" edited by Gardner Dozois (driveby). His compilations have been the market leader for 3 decades and offered a kaleidoscope of plots, ideas and styles. Dozois catered to a lot of different tastes and showed the state of art in science fiction. Unfortunately Dozois passed away in 2018, ending his series with the number 35. I also used to read & collect the series "Year`s Best SF"  edited by David G. Hartwell, which ended with Vol. 18 published in December 2013. Hartwell passed away in 2016. I really miss Hartwell`s selection because he focused on hard science fiction.

It seems that Clarke, who also is the editor of "Clarkesworld Magazine", has now a monopoly for these kinds of collections (624 pages). Like Dozois he begins his collection with a summation of the trends in the scifi world in the respective year and precedes each story with a short introduction of the authors.

I have five favorites:

"Umbernight" by Carolyn Ives Gilman is a thrilling adventure. Human settlers on an inhospitable planet are hiking through unknown land to capture something they need. The hikers have to deal with a bizarre & deadly environment. A masterpiece!

"Mother Tongues" by S. Qiouyi Lu. In this future people can sell their language. A new technology sucks all specific language traits - spelling, pronouncing & grammar - out of the brain and transfer these skill to another person. There is a market for that because people want to acquire a foreign language like Mandarin for business or for pleasure. In this story a Chinese-American mother living in California wants to sell her English - which is second language - to finance the hyper-expensive college for her daughter. A brilliant story which touches linguistic, economics, sociology & other topics, even Ted Chiang would be proud of.

"Different Seas" by Alastair Reynolds. The author is a professional scientist with a Ph.D. in astronomy who had worked for the European Space Agency in the Netherlands. Reynolds belongs now to the most successful sci-fi writers and is known for his elaborated space operas. This time he showed his talents in a maritime setting. A women, alone on a high-tech sail ship without a crew, gets into severe distress caused by a fierce solar storm which disrupts electronic systems on our planet. How can she survive?

"Meat and Salt and Sparks" by Rich Larson. The author has been on my radar for years for his highly original stories. Here he delivered a peculiar detective story where the investigator is a chimpanzee who`s brain has been technologically upgraded. Someone had committed a murder following a remote control, who gave the command?

"Okay, Glory" by Elizabeth Bear. A billionaire is trapped in his secluded high-tech mansion in the mountains because some rogues had hacked the controlling house AI to demand ransom.


I also enjoyed:

"Prophet of the Roads" by Naomi Kritzer. A woman wants to revive an ancient AI technology which is dangerous because AIs are out of law and hated.

"Trace of Us" by Vanessa Fogg deals with the question can humans upload their mind onto a computer?

"Theories of Flight" by Linda Nagata is a kind of fairy tale about a young man who remembers past lives which helps him to develop a forbidden technology.

The mentioned 8 gems (out of 29 stories) justify the price of the kindle version which costs in the moment of writing just $9,99 even though the book has way too much stuffing by untalented authors who don`t care much about science fiction. But buying the expensive printed version would be a waste of money & precious forest material.

Art Market: The Ascent Of Females

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  The world of art is changing. Female artists have been neglected for centuries. But in the recent years art works of women got more & more presented in museums and art galleries and reached better prices at Sotheby´s, Christie´s, Phillips and other auction global houses. "When it comes to works traded on the auction market, women’s prices are rising at a much faster rate than prices for works by men", finds a study from auction giant Sotheby`s ( artnet).

As a frequent visitor of art galleries, museums & auction houses I had the pleasure to spot many works by rising female artists. I noticed that many of the ascending female stars deal with sex & erotics (not always the same) - sometimes sublime, sometimes more explicit. I display here a subjective selection of my discoveries.

 

Jenny Saville was born in 1970 in Cambridge, England, and currently lives and works in Oxford, England. According to a Gagosian press release she "transcends the boundaries of both classical figuration and modern abstraction in her depiction of the human form.....The immense canvases recall archetypes from religion and mythology, such as the pietà and the Fates" (saville). Above a selection of pictures from Sotheby´s London & New York, Gagosian & The Broad in Los Angeles.

 

Cecily Brown is born 1969 in London and lives and works now in New York City. "Brown's paintings - influenced by abstract expressionist painters such as Willem de Kooning - combine figuration and utter abstraction while exploring the power relationship between male and female" ( wikipedia ). Above images from Sotheby`s, Phillips, The Broad & Manhattan`s Paula Cooper Gallery, who represents her.

 

Nicole Eisenman (born 1965), who lives and works in Brooklyn, belongs to today`s celebrated artists. Above some images from exhibitions @ Anton Kern Gallery 2016 & Greene Naftali Gallery in 2018, both in New York.

                              Giving Head

 

Loie Hollowell is born in 1983 in St. Peter, Minnesota, and currently lives and works in New York City. She belongs to the shooting stars in the contemporary art market. Hollowell started in October 2016 with a solo show at a little gallery @ New York`s Lower East Side and some paintings were sold some for $8,000 to $15,000. Those prices have since increased more than 1,200 percent, and Loie Hollowell has become one of the most fiercely sought-after artists in New York, reports Artnet.com (artnet ). The media describe her work as "abstract body landscapes". The auction house Christie`s  claims that her curvaceous motifs  represent the female anatomy (christies) and refers to Georgia O’Keeffe. Above her "Giving Head" watched @ Phillips followed by "Hang Down" (Sotheby`s) & "Gemini" (Christie`s). She`s now represented by Pace Gallery in New York.

 

Elizabeth Peyton (born 1965) lives and works in New York City. I like her stylized and idealized portraits I noticed @ Sotheby´s, Phillips, The Broad and  Paula Cooper Gallery.

 

Marlene Dumas, who was born in 1953 in Cape Town, South Africa, belongs also to the darlings of the auction houses.

 

Above another rising star on the firmament of the art world: Dana Schutz (born 1976 Livonia, Michigan)  who lives and works in Brooklyn.

 

Christina Quarles (born 1985) lives and works in Los Angeles.

 

Julie Curtiss was born in France in 1982, and is of French and Vietnamese descent. Artnet.com calls her a millenial art star ( artnet). Anyway I like her painting "Party Down" spotted @ Phillips.

 

Caroline Walker, b.1982 is a Scottish artist based in London ( carolinewalker). Above her wonderful "Upstairs Downstairs" which I discovered @ Sotheby`s London followed by 2 paintings spotted @ Gallery Victoria Miro in the East of London.

 

Aya Takano, born 1976, is a Japanese superflat artist, manga artist, and science fiction essayist (wikipedia   aya-takano.tumblr).  The painting is called "The sound of the Shamisen". I guess we will see more by her - and from the others as well.