Books: Eilleen By Ottessa Moshfegh

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - What could we learn if we could read the minds of others? Reading books is a kind of mind reading, at least we can participate a little bit in the thinking of the authors. Looking into Ottessa Moshfegh`s mind is quite amusing. In her debut novel ""Eilleen"  the narrator, the name giving Eilleen, shares her thoughts & impressions with the reader (Amazon ). The novel is certainly not an autobiography but Eilleen is Ottessa`s brainchild and Eilleen`s thoughts are thought by Otessa. Eillen`s thoughts are sometimes amusing, but also kinky, dark and gross.

Eillen looks back on her life and reports about her youth in the 1960s when she was "strange, young and mousy". Then Eillen was single, lived in Boston with her father, whom she loathed, and she worked as a secretary in a prison for young males because no bank would have hired her. Being unhappy with her life she thought about radical changes which brought her into a challenging situation (this is a spoiler free blog). The novel touches topics like morbid obsessions, latent & open homosexuality, pedophilia, dysfunctional families and more.

"Eillen"was short listed for the Man Booker Prize.

Sports: The World Looks On Germany

(Drivebycuriosity) - The world looks on Germany, at least the part which is interested in team sports. The Deutsche Bundesliga, the German Premier Soccer League, restarted her game series (the 52nd season in her history), following a two-month shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Before the restart all players have been quarantined and frequently tested for COVID-19 - and the tests will continue twice a week. If a player will be tested positive it will be treated as regular injuries, followed by a two-week absence. Apparently they are canaries in the coal mine. Fingers crossed.

They games are happening in the usual big stadiums, but with empty seats. These "ghost games" are all shown on TV and streamed on Internet, reaching a global audience. I live in New York City and have been watching the games on the US networks FS1 & FS2 which stream all games. Apparently the Deutsche Bundesliga has a monopoly in the moment. They are the only providers of major sport events on the globe. This way the COVID-19  pandemic gives the German soccer teams much more international attention as usual, an advantage against the leagues in UK, Spain & Italy - and also against US football, baseball & basketball.

The situation is also a chance to grant soccer more international attention. In the US soccer is neglected -  way behind American football, baseball, basketball & ice hockey. I understand that many Americans find soccer games boring because they have to wait for some severe action. And there is only one break after 45 minutes.

The games I watched so far showed the strategical & tactical appeal of soccer as a kind of dynamical lawn chess. Successful soccer is based on brain &  physical effort. Successful combinations of attacks - players move with the ball like the draws of a check game - can lead to dramatic actions before the goal box.  On last weekend, the 27th Spieltag (match day), which spread from Friday through Sunday, the 18 teams scored 32 times, including the 7 goals thriller in the game Bayer München versus Eintracht Frankfurt. Some games got spiced with penalty shootings & red cards.

I think a successful restart of an important sports event could be seen as a good omen for a general restart of the global economy. Maybe the rest of the world can learn something from the Bundesliga, not only the sports world.

Science Fiction: Michaelmas By Algis Budrys Redux

(Drivebycuriosity) - Some books stay in the memory and need to be reread sometimes. The science fiction novel "Michaelmas" by Algis Budrys, published in the year 1977, belongs to them (amazon). The book focuses on Laurent Michaelmas, a highly influential and ultra rich newsman. When I read the novel in the 1970s I was fascinated by "Domino", a self-aware artificial intelligence. Michaelmas had created this device himself and developed it from a modest telephony appliance into an intelligent being. Now "Domino" communicates with Michaelmas like a friend and gives him access to almost any available information on the globe, the basis of Michaelmas` power & wealth. I was really envious on Michaelmas` relationship with "Domino" which fanned my fantasies. How much fun would it be to own such a smart device. I was also fascinated by the described advanced media systems which give instant access to almost any information.

"Michaelmas" is a milestone of science fiction because the visionary author depicted today`s Internet - at least a kind of - and featured an artificial intelligence which could be around the corner. Unfortunately the plot seems confusing to be me. The owner of a remote clinic in the Swiss mountains, a super star surgeon, claims that he had revitalized an American astronaut, who was reported as being killed in an accident and Michaelmas starts to investigate this case. I would have preferred to read about Michaelmas & "Domino" in a more plausible tale. 

Economics: Did COVID-19 Lockdowns Cause A Climate Change Hiatus?

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems the whole world is still in a lockdown - with the exceptions of China & South Korea. Many factories, shops & restaurants are shut down in Asia, Europa & the Americas, car traffic slowed down and there are almost zero flights. The whole world took a break. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic the world is burning much less oil, coal & gas. In April the US demand for gasoline dropped about 50% from last year (eia.gov). Europe & Asia burn much less gas as well. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, that in the first quarter of 2020 the global energy demand fell 3.8% year over year, wiping out all of 2019′s demand growth (cnbc ). The agency expects that global energy demand  declines by 6% this year.

The compulsory break lead to the largest drop in global CO2 emissions on record. The IEA reports “Not only are annual emissions in 2020 set to decline at an unprecedented rate, the decline is set to be almost twice as large as all previous declines since the end of World War II combined,” (cnbc). According to the IEA “global CO2 emissions are expected to decline even more rapidly across the remaining nine months of the year, to reach 30.6 [gigatonnes] for the 2020, almost 8% lower than in 2019.” They are not alone. A group of 13 international climate researchers calculates that global CO2 emissions dropped temporarily 17% below the usual daily average ( spiegel.de). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects that the coronavirus pandemic will drive carbon dioxide emissions down 6% this year (reuters).

Apparently the COVID-19  pandemic - and the measures against it - work like a carbon tax. Both reduce the burning of fossil and reduce the emission of CO2. One is intended, the other not. Obviously COVID-19 works much more radical than any reasonable tax would do - albeit only temporarily. What does that mean for global warming? I don´t expect a new ice age near term but the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will slowdown global warming for a while.

Books: Then Will The Sun Rise Alabaster By Benjanun Sriduangkaew

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Convents are secretive places. What does happen there? It is nobody´s business.  Benjanun Sriduangkaew shares her fantasies about Catholic cloisters in her novella "Then Will The Sun Rise Alabaster" which is published as a Kindle Single (49 pages amazon ). The Internet makes many things possible.

I loved Sriduangkaew`s science fiction novel "And Shall Machines Surrender" (here my review ). "Then Will ..."  is more a lesbian gothic story than scifi, even though the tale seems to happen in a different universe, but the novella is fascinating anyway. The plot follows a young woman who got abducted as a child and it is forced to live in the cloister and to obey the strict rules of the Catholic church and of Mother Superior. But new women arrive at the abbey and things are changing  (this is a spoil free blog).

Sriduangkaew certainly doesn´t love Catholic monasteries. She harshly describes the suppression the leading character and the other miserable "sisters" have to suffer. I did not care much about the simple plot but I enjoyed again the elaborate style and I indulged into Sriduangkaew`s artfully constructed sentences. The title and the great intro - "Morning begins in apocalypse: by accident of location, sunrise on this star comes in like a herald of the great finale, that severance of time, a sky flushing to red and shivering with fire"  - give a taste of it.

I guess some day I will read more by Sriduangkaew.

Economics: Is The Reopening Of The Economy Endangered By A Lack Of Discipline?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a strong political movement against the lockdowns which have been keeping large parts of the economies in the US & Europe closed and are accompanied by imploding economies and jumping jobless rates. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and others warned that the US economy could slide into a severe recession. Many countries in Europe and states in the US are responding and started to reopen their economies step-by-step. But health expert Anthony Fauci warned that reopening too soon & too fast could cause a second wave of infections which would worsen the situation.

I think a cautious step-by-step reopening could be successful if people have discipline. The virus jumps from person top person, it needs an intact chain. These chains can be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). Discipline may be the main reason that Asian countries like Japan, South Korea & Taiwan, have such low numbers of cases, sick people, deaths,  even though they are practising different policies.

Unfortunately many people don`t have this discipline. Many don`t care to infect themselves and others.  On the streets of Manhattan I still spot a lot joggers and other people who don´t wear a mask and don´t care about distances. Do they wash their hands? Bowery Boogie, a website which covers Manhattan`s Lower East Side, observes that "drinking in groups on the streets – in daylight – is apparently the trend in Hell Square" (some blocks on the Lower East Side (image above  boweryboogie ). There is frequent congregating, often without face protection; it goes unchecked until the cops are forced to break up the crowd. The New York Post reports that a nightclub on the Lower Easst Sided opened on a recent Friday night (May 1) for an exclusive, invite-only party, in apparent violation of coronavirus lockdown orders ( nypost).

On Internet I can find ubiquitous reports about ignoring social distancing and not wearing masks. Since Saturday alone in New York City more than 50 people have received summonses and at least three people have been arrested for not practicing safe social distancing (ny1). And I spotted the images above this paragraph on twitter.
 

 ( twitter)

Apparently these ignorant persons are slowing the progress in the fight against the virus and maybe even causing a second wave (chart above). They are putting the openings at risk. Some US states which did well for a while are reporting a re-accelerating of new cases. California for instance, which did much better than the rest of the US for a while, reports suddenly a growth rate of new cases of more than  2%, higher than the national average (worldometers).

If the US numbers don´t get better - or even get worse - the governors of the federal states might be forced to prolong the lockdowns and maybe even need to cancel the announced reopenings. It seems that the ignorant people are sabotaging the openings.   

Books: Real Life By Adeline Dieudonné

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Growing up in a dysfunctional family is a real challenge. Fortunately I had a "boring" childhood in an average family with no siblings. But it is fascinating to take a glance into the lives of others who are less lucky. "Real Life" by Adeline Dieudonné tells the story of a girl who has to grow up with a brutal father: "A big game hunter, a powerful predator, and a mother, who is submissive to her husband´s violent demands"  (amazon ).

The debut novel by the Belgian author is told in first person by a girl who is about 10 years old in the begin of the novel. The narrator reports how her life is changing over about 5 years. There is a grizzly accident which chances her life and her brother`s; she has encounters with neighbors and she is threaten by her red neck father, who is getting more and more violent and abusive (this is a spoiler free book). It turns out that this girl is highly intelligent and determined and has the gift for analytical observations. She painstakingly describes her puberty, how she cares for her younger brother and reveals her thoughts and feelings, her fears and sexual desires.

 "Real Life" is a glance into a dark & bizarre world and reminds my of Brothers Grimm`s sinister tales, just without witches & sorcerers. It is a horror story, spiced with violence and cruelty, but also an observation about of life, growing up and life.

Dieudonné can write. I enjoyed her poetic descriptions, like:  "Monica´s slender muscular arms, spotted with freckles, her coppery skin smelling of cardamom, and the gaze of an Amerindian priestess, must have filled entire mental institutions with despairing lovers". The book (about 200 pages) is a little gem. I want to read more by this promising author.

Economics: Why The Lockdowns Are A Success Story

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  There is a wave of protests against the severe COVID-19 lockdowns, often aggressively. People respond to imploding economies and extremely jumping jobless numbers. Some influencers claim that the lockdowns are unnecessary and do harm the economies without reason.

 (cnbc  )

The virus jumps from person to person, it needs an intact chain to spread. Lockdowns, combined with social distancing & wearing masks, are trapping many of the viruses inside their hosts and are breaking many chains. The lockdowns cut many virus chains and slowed the globalpandemic significantly - especially in Europe (chart above, Europe: green, US: dark blue, Latin America: yellow ).

 ( worldometers )

Italy was the first country in Europe, which was hit had - and responded earlier than other countries in the West (wikipedia). On 9 March 2020, the government of Italy under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a national quarantine, restricting the movement of the population except for necessity, work, and health circumstances, in response to the growing pandemic of COVID-19 in the country. Additional lockdown restrictions mandated the temporary closure of non-essential shops and businesses.

As a result the number of new cases peaked already around March 20 and has been falling since then (chart above).

 ( worldometers )



The federal states in Germany (Bundesstaaten) started the lockdowns separately late in March and step-by-step (wikipedia ). The numbers of new cases peaked around April 2 and have been sinking since then.

 ( worldometers)

Austria imported the virus from Italy and suffered an explosive growth of coronavirus cases in the first half of March. Austria`s government shut down must not necessary activities on March 16 (kurier ). The number of new cases peaked around March 26 and has been dropping since then.

 (twitter )

In the US the federal states started the lockdowns separately in the second half of March and the number of new cases peaked in late April (cnbc  ).  In Manhattan where I live are many restaurants - and even some pubs - open for take-out & home-delivery. The streets in my neighborhoods - Lower East Side, East Village & Soho - have still plenty of strollers and joggers.

(  tracker)


The lockdowns are accompanied by imploding economies and jumping jobless numbers. But the economies would have tanked anyway because people are scared. If the governments wouldn`t have locked down, the economies would have shut down by voluntary behaviour by people who want to protect themselves against the coronavirus. In Europe & in the US factories and shops got closed because employees tested positive for the virus or stayed sick at home (driveby). In the US federal state Georgia, spending fell and many small businesses closed before the official “stay-at-home” order ( chart above).  

Now the reduced and falling numbers of new cases, hospitalizations & deaths in many countries and US states make a cautious reopening of the economies possible, supported by strict social distancing and wearing masks ( reuters). The lockdowns are a success story.

Stock Market: The Invisible Rubber Band

(Drivebycuriosity) - The economy seems to be in free fall, but the US stock market, represented by the S&P 500, gained more than 30% from the March low. The fast recovery wasn`t a surprise (driveby).  Stock markets often snap back after an extreme fall (chart below).  It seems there is an invisible rubber band. We observed the invisible rubber band also in the beginning of 2019 when the market snapped back after the Christmas 2018 panic and in the spring of 2009 when the big meltdown turned suddenly into a steep recovery rally.

.

( source)


It sounds like a paradox, but the deeper and the faster stocks drop, the faster they recover. This phenomena can easily be explained. In the final phase of a downturn the market often overshoots and the selling accelerates - driven by panic & and intensified short selling. Hedge funds and other speculators borrow stocks only to sell them immediately as a bet on lower prices. But suddenly the panic wave rolls over,  bargain hunters are attracted by sharply reduced prices & valuations, short sellers start buying back, new information dampens pessimism, people become tired of listening to the prophets of doom and panic will ebb down. The stock market is always forward looking. As soon as the market notices that things don´t get worse it begins to recover. When the news flow becomes less depressing buyers  jump back and stocks rally again.

( cnbc)


In March stocks were pricing-in worst case scenarios and seller panicked. There was talk that in the US 50% or more will be infected and everything will be shut down for many months. Since then the curves of new cases, hospitalized & dead persons flattened. In the US the daily growth rate of new cases sank from around 30% - which meant a doubling in about 3 days - to less than 3% and in many Asian & European the daily growth rates dropped to 1% and below. Quarantines, travel bans, the temporary closing of factories & gathering places (pubs, gyms, restaurants, beaches etc), social distancing and cautious behavior (intense hand washing, fewer body contacts etc.) did their work and helped to flatten the curve and constrain the epidemic so far.

The flattened curves encourage some European countries - like Germany, Italy & Spain - and most US states to reopen their economies step-by-step. Governments and health officials are trying to strike a balance between reopening economies and staving off a second wave of infections. There are also soothing news from the economy. Companies like Uber reported that they have seen gradual recovery in the past four weeks and online retailers are experiencing jumping sales.

The stock market is also fueled by the $6 trillion stimulus by the US government and Federal Reserve. Roughly half of American workers can earn more from unemployment benefits than they earned at their jobs prior to the coronavirus shutdown ( realclearmarkets). On top of state unemployment, federal coronavirus stimulus is adding $600 per week. As a result consumers have still a lot of money to spend - keeping the economy alive. The Energy Information Administration reported that US gasoline demand, an indicator for economic activity, is already rising again (aaa ).

Ultra low oil prices & interest rates are also supporting by reducing transportation costs (shops still need to be filled and online purchases still need to be delivered) curbing the costs for those who still are working & commuting or will restart it.

There is also a big fundamental change going on. More people are working, learning & shopping from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales in the US are surging, more people are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Amazon already hired 100,000 people to deal with the exploding demand and Facebook reported explosive demand. 

The recent gains on the stock market are also driven by the hope on a v-shaped recovery. There is a chance that the economy will coming roaring back in the second half of the year. There is a huge backlog demand. People are tired from sitting quarantined at home, they will be happy to go back to work and to visit shops, bars, restaurants & to travel again. Time will tell.

Economics: The Economy Would Get Even Worse Without Lockdowns

(Drivebycuriosity) - There is a wave of protests against the severe COVID-19 lockdowns, often aggressively. People respond to imploding economies and extremely jumping jobless numbers. Some influencers claim that the lockdowns are unnecessary and do harm the economies without reason. Really?

It seems that many care more about being able to watch football or to get a haircut than about the number of severely sick and the deaths. But I don´t write here about the moral implications and will focus on the economics. I am convinced, supported by the facts, that the economy would be much worse without the lockdowns.

First, there is - and was - no real quarantine and no complete shutdown in the US. Yes, I miss my gym, going to my favorite pub and the heavy metal concerts and festivals which I have tickets for where all canceled or postponed. But the supply chains, which deliver our daily food and other necessities, are still functioning. The farmers are working and the transporting sector, there is electricity, gas and Internet. I still can shop for food at many places and in Manhattan where I live are many restaurants - and even some pubs - open for take-out & home-delivery. The streets in my neighborhoods - Lower East Side, East Village & Soho - have still plenty of strollers and joggers.

I am aware that more than 30 million Americans lost their jobs temporarily. But they receive unemployment  payments and - like most Americans - checks from the IRS. Government and Federal Reserve have been pumping about $6 trillions into the economy to mitigate the carnage done by the crisis. And a lot of office jobs - and some education & entertainment - can be done from home thanks to the Internet.

 ( source )


The lockdowns - even though they were just partial - reduced the transmission of the virus significantly because they limited personal contacts - making it more difficult for the virus to jump from person to person. As a result the lockdowns - so incomplete they are - squeezed the growth rates and flattened the curves of new cases, hospitalized and death people significantly. Before the lockdowns the number of new cases in Europe & the US grew daily around 30% and more and the number of infected doubled roughly every 3 days. Without lockdowns the US - and the rest of the world - would have multiple times sick & dead people. That might not interest those who are so fortunate to be immune to the virus. But even these people would get hit - by a much weaker economy,

Even with incomplete lockdowns some parts of the economies which had permissions to continue got closed - at least temporarily. In the US, Brazil & Spain several meat processing and packaging plants closed after employees have tested positive for the virus (cnn). General Electric shut down temporarily a wind power factory after 110 workers tested positive for the virus ( seekingalpha). A Walmart super center in Colorado got closed after coronavirus deaths (cnn). Workers from Amazon, Instacart, Whole Foods, Walmart, Target  and FedEx had a walk out on work on May 1 due to health and safety concerns amid the pandemic ( seekingalpha). In Germany all the car companies shut down for weeks - in part because of logistic chain problems, in part out of concern for worker health, and in part because orders collapsed (marginalrevolution). Amazon France shut down because a court ordered strict constrains combined with drastic fines which made orderly business impossible after worker protests about security.

How would workers and unions respond if the numbers of sick & dead people would have continued snowballing as they did in March? How many employees would be on sick leave? How man shops and factories would get closed because there were not enough workers available? Even if businesses stayed open they would be confronted with a shrinking demand caused by scared customers. OpenTable bookings had declined 70% before US restaurants were closed ( twitter ). Sweden does not have lockdowns and movie theaters stay open. But box office dropped 98% by March 20, due to fans staying away from movie theaters, chains shutting down voluntarily, and studios delaying new releases ( marginalrevolution).

The supply chains are already stressed today. Many grocery store shelves are empty because of ongoing supply problems, fresh bought food is already spoiled and some groceries in my Manhattan neighborhood are closed without government action. Would I be able to buy food and to get electricity  when too many factories, shops and utilities are closed because owners and employees are panicking or a sick? If governments wouldn`t have closed the economy (partially), workers and customers would have done it.



 

Books: Smilla's Sense Of Snow By Peter Høeg Redux

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There are some books which stay in the memory and need be reread sometimes. "Smilla`s Sense of Snow" by the Danish author Peter Høeg, published in 1992, belongs to them (amazon). I have read the strange novel in the 1990s. The novel became somewhat famous, partly because of an amusing but anatomical impossible explicit sex scene. The novel stretches over almost 500 pages and touches a lot of topics including parasitic pandemics, which put "Smilla" back on my mind.

The plot circles around Smilla, a woman in her thirties, who lives in Denmark. She grew up on Greenland as the daughter of a female Inuit hunter and a rich urban Danish physician, who apparently finances her standard of living. Smilla, who is an expert in arctic conditions, but is apparently unoccupied, gets obsessed with the death of a little boy - a neighbour’s child whom she had befriended. She begins an intense investigation which leads to a chain of surprising events (this is a spoiler free blog. You can read a synopsis here wikipedia )

"Smilla" is a surreal fable, a kind of a weird dream. The book reads like a mixture of Kafka´s novel and Michael Crichton`s books. After almost 30 years I was less impressed.  Høeg mixed too many ingredients into the dough: Denmark´s colonization of Greenland, arctic explorations, the art of accounting, rogue companies, conspiracies, dysfunctional families, science fiction, tropical parasites and much more, which made the plot too hard digest. And the characters are unbelievable, especially Smilla, who behaves like a spoiled kid and a mixture of Sherlock Holmes and James Bond.

But there are also parts of the book I did enjoy.  Høeg masterfully describes snow, ice, Nordic weather, the arctic sea and I indulged into a boat ride through the ice. The author also stuffed his tale with myriads of interesting facts and a lot of science. "A good parasite does not kill its host". "Smilla" is an entertaining book, but reading it twice is enough, goodbye Smilla.

Economics: Is The COVID-19 Pandemic Caused By A Lack Of Discipline?

(Drivebycuriosity) - Since the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic we could learn a lot. Some Asian countries have very low and sinking rates of cases, sick people, deaths, in other countries the virus is still spreading fast.

We know that the spreading of the virus cut be confined by strict discipline, by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands. Why is washing hands so important? The virus can survive on surfaces for some days. Some surfaces, like door knobs in multiple family buildings or groceries, collect a lot viruses. When a person touches these surfaces some viruses stay on the hand. If this person brings the hands on her face - for eating, drinking, smoking cigarettes, pulling hair away, scratching the nose - the virus my infect the person.

 (source )

( source )



China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam & some European countries got rid of #Covid_19 or slowed the spreading significantly down. Social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands works. It seems that in some Asian countries people have a lot discipline, which may be part of their culture. Japanese or Korean people behave different, more reserved, than Italians or Americans. But the flattening curves in Europa suggest that these countries enforced the necessary discipline,  at least for keeping social distances and wearing masks. The high - and still steeply rising numbers - in the US suggest that many Americans have less discipline and don`t care to infect themselves and others. On the streets of Manhattan I still spot a lot joggers and other people who don´t wear a mask and don´t care about distances. Do they wash their hands? Above an image from a park in Manhattan from these weekend.

I understand that some people think they have the right to harm themselves and that their behavior is nobody`s business. Some may still think that COVID-19 is a hoax. But do they have the right to infect others and to harm them?  Those who are infected but are asymptomatic are a danger for others, and those who get sick might infect doctors and nurses. A lack of discipline might kill!