Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Oil: Game Over?

According to Bloomberg, today Iran threatened, "to halt all oil exports if sanctions intensify" (bloomberg). And Iran`s oil minister Rostam Qasemi claimed: "The lack of Iranian oil in the market would drastically add to the price” (bloomberg).

But the price of oil didn't respond with a price jump today. Quite to the contrary, Brent Crude, the future for the international variety of oil, fell around 1% to $108.4.

I believe this reaction is another proof that oil is the mother of all bubbles. For years oil has been expensive because of continuous speculation on possible supply disruptions from Iran and other nations in this region. Therefore oil prices didn`t represent the supple/demand situation on the markets anymore.

The high oil price induced an expansion of oil production, for instance in the U.S. and Iraq, and simultaneously curbed the demand for oil. I reckon this led to an overproduction and an oil glut on the markets.

Hence, I reckon the oil price is overstrung. The over supply is now pushing the oil price down. Even if Iran would realize it´s thread, the price of oil wouldn´t rise much because of the flood of oil from other producers and the high stocks. The vain saber rattling of Iran is a sign that the world doesn`t need their oil anymore.

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