Economics; Should The Fed Fight The Iran War?

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Should the Fed fight the Iran war? Ok, the question is ridiculous and absurd. But many pundits - and even some members of the FOC - demand that the Fed hikes her interest rate to fight the stubborn inflation. Their pleads are synonymous.

                       Force Majeure 

Let me explain that to you. The sticky inflation is the result of the oil price rise in the recent 12 months - almost up 40%. What can the Fed do against rising oil prices? Nothing. The high oil price is caused by the Iran war. And the war is the result of geopolitical stupidity and is force majeure for the Fed. 

Inflation means CONTINUOUS PRICE RISES. If the oil price stays on today´s level the inflation effect goes away. Only when the oil price keeps climbing - fueled by worsening of the war - then inflation will stay - or even goes higher.

Would the Fed try to fight the oil-price induced price hikes the authority would cause additional headwinds for economy - and may even cause a recession. 

 

Books: Through Two Doors At Once By Anil Ananthaswamy

 (Drivebycuriosity) - "Quantum mechanics is spooky", said Einstein, even though the genius belonged to the fathers of quantum physics. Indeed quantum mechanics, the behavior of infinitesimal small particles like electrons and photons (light), has a lot spooky phenomena. One of them is them is the result of the famous double-slit experiment. Sorry, no threesome. 

Since the 1920s physicists have been shooting a single photon through a barrier that has two slits. They noticed that - when the photon has passed the barrier - on the other side the photon created not just one impact but two or more. Can a photon exist on more than one place? 

Since the 1920s physicists have been discussing this phenomena and created more and more elaborated experiments and theories. Anil Ananthaswamy`s book "Through Two Doors At Once" sketches the basics of quantum physics and describes how physicists have been developing more and more complex experiments and theories over around 100 years  (amazon). 

Already in the 19th century started a controversy about the behavior of elementary particles, the basics of our world. Physicists stated that light is an electromagnetic wave, comparable to radio waves. But Einstein disagreed. He noticed that when a photon, a particle of light, hits an atom, the impact kicks an electron out of this atom, like a pebble causes a splash, when it hits water. According to Einstein this photoelectric effect proves that light consists of particles (photons) and not of waves.

 

                 Collapsing Wave-Function 

Unfortunately the double-slit experiments show multiple impacts on the other side of the barrier that fit to the wave theory. Einstein`s observation started a controversy about whether our universe is based on particles like photons and electrons or is based on waves. Some physicists believe that photons and electrons behave as waves when they are unobserved and turn only into particles after observation - the famous collapse of the wave-function. Schrödinger`s cat is either dead or alive as long it is hidden in a experimental box (unobserved), only when the box gets opened (observation) the state of the feline is decided. 

 Ananthaswamy presents over almost 300 pages the more and more esoteric theories that ambitious quantum physicists, many of them Nobel Prize winners, developed over the times and describes their more and more ridiculously sophisticated double-slit experiments, some of them cost meanwhile millions of dollars.

"Through Two Doors At Once" reminds of medieval philosophers who asked "can multiple angels occupy the exact same space simultaneously". Later authors mocked them with the infamous satire: How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? 

Books: Jules Verne`s: From The Earth To The Moon

 (Drivebycuriosity) - In the year 1969 the first human landed on the moon, in the year 1865 Jules Verne dreamed an early version of the journey to the earth`s satelitte: "From the Earth to the Moon". 

Verne´s moon shot happens in an alternate world, short after an undefined war, that destroyed the business of the canon producers. The President of the American gun club, that represents the American canon industry, has an idea how to compensate the missing business. Why not construct a giant canon and use it to shoot people on the moon?

Verne might have been inspired by 19th century circus shows where acrobats in the manege seemingly got shot through canons, even though the circuses used heavy rubber springs, not gunpowder, for propulsion.

The plot follows the long process from the decision to the final moon shot. The author described elaborately the engineering and the economics of the canon production and the social implications of the moonshot.  

Verne was not ignorant of the fact that humans cannot survive the immense heat & sudden push of a canon shot, so he imaged an elaborate cushioning system. "Undoubtedly the travelers would still have to encounter a violent recoil after the complete escapement of the water; but the first shock would be almost entirely destroyed by this powerful spring".

In contemporary science fiction space travelers sometimes have to survive deadly gravity caused by enormous acceleration. Scifi authors therefore imagine special beds that cushion the otherwise deadly intensified gravity.

"From The Earth To The Moon" is a funny tale, a farce, mixing fantasy with facts. Verne invented a new kind of novel, a "Roman de la Science" ("novel of science"), which allowed him to incorporate large amounts of the factual information he discovered while researching in the Bibliothèque ( wikipedia). He wrote of course for a 19th century audience, who had much less knowledge than people today. But Verne`s stories remind me a bit of a modern scifi subgenre, called cyber punk.

Even though the novel is a farce Verne acknowledges the physics of space flights: "As we recede from the earth the action of gravitation diminishes in the inverse ratio of the square of the distance; that is to say, at three times a given distance the action is nine times less". 

Anyway, "From The Earth To The Moon" is also an optimistic statement with a can-do attitude and belief into technology. Verne also praises of the efficiency of American engineering. "Nothing can astound an American. In America, all is easy, all is simple; and as for mechanical difficulties, they are overcome before they arise".

The novel has a surprising ending - but based on modern physics and cosmology. It is still fun to read. 

The novel is part of a giant omnibus reader: "Jules Verne: Complete Works (Wisehouse Classics)", that contains 47 novels! more than 10,000 pages! ( amazon). 

Books: Whatever By Michel Houellebecq

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Michel Houellebecq belongs to the most important contemporary philosophers and novel writers in France, maybe of the world. Houellebecq`s texts are precise and analytical; he performs literary autopsies - and he likes to provoke. After enjoying the master`s recent books, I took a look on the beginning of his career and read "Whatever", his first novel (first published 1994 amazon).

Houellebecq`s debut gives already a taste of his qualities. Like later works the plot is told in first person, by a man who is pathetic & obnoxious, but also smart and has the gift of an analytical mind. 

The novel is philosophical with a very pessimist undertone - as usual for Houellebecq. I am not too much impressed by the plot. But what makes me reading him again and again - and makes me a fan of him - are the author`s sharp wit and his analytical & precise musings about almost anything  

For instance: 

"Just like unrestrained economic liberalism, and for similar reasons, sexual liberalism produces phenomena of absolute pauperization. Some men make love every day; others five or six times in their life, or never. Some make love with dozens of women; others with none. It’s what’s known as ‘the law of the market’. In an economic system where unfair dismissal is prohibited, every person more or less manages to find their place. In a sexual system where adultery is prohibited, every person more or less manages to find their bed mate. In a totally liberal economic system certain people accumulate considerable fortunes; others stagnate in unemployment and misery. In a totally liberal sexual system certain people have a varied and exciting erotic life; others are reduced to masturbation and solitude2.

And: "The successive sexual experiences accumulated during adolescence undermine and rapidly destroy all possibility of projection of an emotional and romantic sort; progressively, and in fact extremely quickly, one becomes as capable of love as an old slag."

I wish, Houellebecq publishes more books.

  

 

Books: The Burning Stones By Antti Tuomainen

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Antti Tuomainen belonged to my favorite writers. I like his dark humor & his surreal descriptions of weird characters and situations and I enjoyed his droll novels like "Little Siberia", "Palm Beach Finland" & "The Man who died" (my reviews Siberia  Palm   The Man Who).

Unfortunately his book, "The Burning Stones", disappoints (amazon ). The novel is set in Finland´s sauna business, the burning stones. As usual the plot is told in first person, this time by a woman, 50 something, who is sales manager for sauna stoves. Typical für a Tuomainen novel the characters behave weird and tend to irrationality. 

In this book the weirdness gets more and more worse over the time and more and more implausible. At around 80% of the Kindle version the plot falls completely apart and the novel ends like a fairy tale.

Tuomainen can do better.  

Science Fiction: Bowl Of Heaven By Gregory Benford & Larry Niven

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Gregory Benford and Larry Niven belong to the Grandmasters of Science Fiction. Together they created the novel "Bowl of Heaven", a fascinating space opera, Vol. 1 of a trilogy  ( amazon). Some humans want to settle in another part of the universe and started a centuries long journey, which leads to  unexpected results (this is a spoiler free blog).

The authors welted a lot sciences into a thrilling adventure story. The novel shows that Benford is an astrophysicist and professor emeritus at the department of physics and astronomy at the University of California, Irvine. But he also has the talent to create exciting stories. 

It is not surprising that the tandem imagined a breathtaking technology based on particle physics, cosmology & chemistry. For instance the authors describe a spaceship that is an intricate self-regulating system and self-tech entity, with artificial intelligences embedded in every subsystem. The spaceship is an anthology of self-critical and disciplined minds. Each mind lived its life with a reward system and constraints, dwelling in a community of diverse talents, propelled it into a social intelligence. Comparable to human societies the ship  evolved over the centuries of its flight into its own, original society.  

The authors also invented an alien world that is partly familiar and partly very strange. The inhabitants - intelligent beings, animals & plants - seem to be highly exotic, but they are plausible because based on what we know about evolution on earth. The complex  psychology & sociology of these beings (the aliens) is plausible and fascinating and I also find behavior and the relationships of the human characters interesting. There is also some sex involved, very unusual for the timid science fiction genre.

I got highly entertained, could refresh old knowledge and learned a lot new insights. I also got inspired to think about our place in the universe.

I plan to read Vol. 2 in a not too far future.

Books: The Rules Of Attraction

(Drivebycuriosity) - Bret Easton Ellis belongs to the stars of contemporary American fiction, albeit controversial. His novel "The Shards" (published 2023 ) creates a hitchcockian atmosphere and
pulled me into a sinister vertigo (my review )

His earlier novel "The Rules of attraction" (published 2010  amazon ) doesn`t have these qualities, even the author uses very similar condiments. The plot develops in short episodes, all told in first person, by female & male characters, college students in North East US. They are all obnoxious, pathetic & egocentric. Like in "The Shards" the protagonist`s  universes circle about parties, drugs, beer and fucking - lots of fucking. Unfortunately none of them and their sheer endless experiences were interesting.

It looks like Bret Easton Ellis`craftmanship developed a lot since publishing this novel and in "The Shards" he finally welted his ideas together.