Economics: Inflation - What We Could Learn From Copernicus

(Drivebycuriosity) -  There is still a lot confusion about what caused the recent inflation. Apparently the Federal Reserve and many pundits don`t understand how the economy works and ignore the importance of money. The image above shows that the recent inflation wave was caused by a deluge of money ( reuters).

The causal relationship between the money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus! The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where it was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, but the supply of goods & services did not change much. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Copernicus`findings lead to quantity theory of money. The theory is represented by the basic formula M X V = Q X P, meaning M (money) multiplied with V (the velocity of money) = Q (available goods & services) multiplied with P (price level). The dynamical version today means M (growth rate of money supply) X V = Q (real GDP) X P (inflation rate). Since the real GDP (Q) does not change much, a sudden jump of the monetary growth rate (M) leads to a rise of the inflation rate (P). 

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) confirmed Copernicus and the quantity theory of money. They described in the 1960s how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 

 (source)

                         Helicopter Money

The inflation wave of 2021 & 2022 confirms again the insights of Copernicus and the monetarists. In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed by massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).  

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40%. Unfortunately the money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19. So the price level inevitably had to jump and the inflation rate (first derivation) went up (calculus).

 

 ( source)

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately. Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will stay low.

Those who try to explain the recent inflation and ignore the role money are economic illiterate and ignorant of history.

Books: Medieval Horizons - Why The Middle Ages Matter

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The collapse of the Roman Empire destroyed Europe`s civilization and caused about 1,000 years of economical & cultural darkness, known as the Middle Ages. Betweem around 1400 through 1600 Europe`s civilization started slowly to recover, the period is known as the Renaissance ( wikipedia). The term means revival or rebirth of civilization & economy.

Ian Mortimer challenges the common view in his book: "Medieval Horizons - Why The Middle Ages Matter" ( amazon). The historian focuses on the period 1,000 to 1,600 and claims that in this time span a lot changes happened that lifted the living standard of almost everyone. Unfortunately he did not separate the Middle Ages from the Renaissance: "The way we live today is largely the result of social developments that took place between the eleventh century and the sixteenth". But Mortimer acknowledges that more changes happened closer to the year 1600, generally called the Renaissance. So, the title of the book is a misnomer.

Mortimer admits that the progress had been accelerating all the time and became much faster close to the year 1600. "What is particularly interesting is that these changes were happening so rapidly that people were conscious of how much better off they were compared to their forefathers. In 1577 (!) the clergyman William Harrison declared that oldm men in his village had noticed great improvements over the course of their lifetime". The acceleration phenomena is well known and there exists already a rich literature about accelerating advances in technology & culture (accelerationwatch ).

I have another problem with the book: Mortimer did not connect the changes and he failed to analyze them. His book is merely an itemization of historical tidbits. For instance:

"Medieval kings were almost constantly on the move. In the eleventh century, like all great lords, they had to shift between their many estates for the sustenance of their households. But monarchs also had to counter military threads".

"What ultimately restrained King`s power to go to war, was that armies were costly. As markets multiplied and money became ever more important in the thirteenth century, the ability to go to war was limited by financial constraints. In England, this means that kings had to secure a grant of extraordinary taxation by Parliament to carry on a protracted military campaign".

"At least three expeditions circumnavigated the globe in the sixteenth century. Ferdinand Magellan´s in 1519-22, Francis Drake`s in 1577-80 and Thomases Cavendish`s in 1585-8". They happened certainly late in the Renaissance, and not in the Middle Ages as Mortimer claims.

"Whereas the word "inn" is not found in English before 1000 and probably only the largest towns had an inn in the twelfth century, by 1577 there were more than 3,000 such establishments in England".

 

               What Mortimer Overlooked

Unfortunately Mortimer overlooked the innovations that really define the Renaissance and still matter (found in the book "An Empire Of Wealth - Rise Of The American Economy 1607-2000" my review ):

- the invention of the printing press in the Renaissance reduced the cost of books, and thus of knowledge. Cheap information fostered the rise of science and (early) technology,  it promoted trade and helped managing corporations.

-  the creation of full-rigged ships made long  passages across oceans possible and supported America´s immigration.

-  the initiation of double-entry booking made accounting easier and more reliable. It became much easier to detect errors and helped to invest in complicated & distant enterprises. It also helped to keep track of how these investment are doing.

- the launch of the joint-stock company, the precursor of today`s stock market listed companies,  limited the risk an individual investor had to take and made it possible to amass big sums to invest in distant places like the American colonies. New York, Virginia and the New England colonies were not founded by the English state; they were founded by profit-seeking companies.

If you are interested into Middle Ages & Renaissance you could find better books. For instance Peter Ackroyd´s "The History of England from Its Earliest Beginnings to the Tudors" (my review ).
 

 

Economics: Is Trade Really A Zero-Sum Game?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The London Review of Books claims to be the source of intelligent articles, written by smart authors for sophisticated readers. A recent article wakes doubts. John Lancaster wrote an ambitious essay about finance, titled "For Every Winner a Loser" ( lrb.co.uk).

The article is based on Lancaster´s credo: "Every trade has a winner and a loser" (Paragraph 7, sentence 1). Lancaster claims that trade is a zero-sum game, where one participant`s gain is the loss of the other. Lancaster´s claim is based in innumeracy and ignorance of history & economics.

Why should anyone trade, when it leads to a certain loss? My wife and I order often have take out Sashimi (raw fish like sushi, but without the rice). The selection contains a kind of sardine, which tastes a bit sour. This fish is my favorite, but my wife does not like it so much. So we trade. She gives me her sardine in exchange for a fish from my plate. We both are better off.

Bill and Jim are friends. Both are collecting baseball cards. Bill has already 2 cards by New York Mets but none by New York Yankees, Jim has 2 Yankees cards but no Mets. They trade, Bill gives Jim one Mets and receives one Yankees. Both are better off, both win. A long time ago I collected beer coasters. I had 2 Stuttgarter Hofbräu and I traded one of them for a Weihenstephaner. Nobody lost.

Humans have discovered the advantages of trading a long time ago. Maybe some hunters were successful and caught a huge boar, they got more boar meat than they needed. Maybe they traded the surplus boar meat against the steak of a deer which they didn`t have in a long time. They were better off and so were the deer hunters.

The Phoenician culture flourished with the trade of textiles, wood, glass, metals, incense, papyrus, and carved ivory - and their trade partner benefited as well. Venice became a global power by trading rare goods like pepper, which they received from Arabian traders. In the 18th century the English started to export (trade) industrial goods and imported (counter trade) food and other goods.

Today´s global wealth is based on trade. Unfortunately Lancaster is not the only innumerate who does not understand the virtues of trade. Donald Trump started a trade war with China, his successor Biden continued it and made it even worse and now Trump wants to intensive his trade war. Unfortunately the European Union and the UK also are restricting imports.

"Against stupidity the very Gods themselves contend in wane", wrote once the German poet and playwright Friedrich Schiller.

 

Literature: 21 Interesting Books I Read In 2024

 

(Drivebycuriosity) -  As usual at the beginning of a year I  write about my favorite books from the past year.

 

Fiction: 

There were 2 books that were outstanding and belong to the best I read in decades:

Hilary Mantel´s novel Wolf Hall is set in England in the begin of the 16th century - a horrible place, ruled by a ruthless & sophomoric king - and lives were cheap. The book is the first part of a trilogy that fictionalizes the rise of Thomas Cromwell ( amazon). Cromwell, being the son of a blacksmith & brewer, was considered as a low birth in the world of aristocrats, but he was smart, eloquent, well read & traveled - and he made himself useful for the mighty. Today we would call him a lawyer, economist, administrator & counselor. Mantel seems to like Cromwell´s character - and how he dealt with his family and those who depended on him - and casts some flashlights on his steep advance in the world of high born gentlemen and the reader gets an impression how Cromwell became the favorite of Henry VIII - against all odds. Mantel`s Cromwell even expressed solidarity with those who fell into disgrace, without regard to his own person. And I enjoyed the author´s style and her elegant descriptions of events, place & environments.

 

Bret Easton Ellis`novel "The Shards"  ( amazon) is written in first person - a fictionalized memoir. "Bret", who is now in his fifties, recalls his life as a 17 years old in the year 1981. Then he attended an exclusive school in Los Angeles and was part of a bunch of spoiled über-rich kids who enjoyed their privileged lives in Los Angeles with driving the Jaguars & Porsches of their negligent parents, having sex, using a lot drugs, partying, boozing and watching movies. "Bret" was driven by his "overactive" imagination as ongoing writer, lust and mental issues. Almost continuously stoned he got increasingly bewildered by ongoing reports about a bizarre & grizzly murder & home invasion series in his L.A. neighborhood and developed a growing interest in a dubious newcomer at his school. 

There are intense spooky parts with a hitchcockian atmosphere and creepy & violent episodes that Hieronymus Bosch could have painted on a horror trip. And we learn a lot about "Bret", his mental problems, his obsessions and his various - mostly gay - sexual experiences & longings, which are explicitly and elaborately described. It is hard to escape this vertigo of "fear mingling with lust", drug abuse, lies, control loss & insanity.

 

But the rest of the 2024 harvest was also worth the time, including Patricia Highsmith´s "Ripley`s Game", the third book in her Ripley series ( amazon). This Ripley had aged a bit, he lives now in France; and he is well-off, totally straight and married with a beautiful woman. Ripley became a more cunning and seasoned criminal. He starts a psychological game, a revenge for a petty insult, that creates great dangers for him and others. The novel is a drama, diving deep into the psychology of twisted persons - typical for Highsmith. After a slow start the book is gaining speed and turns into a thriller with nail-biting action. 

Michel Houellebecq`s novel "Serotonin", a fictional memoir, told by a 40 something man (amazon ). The protagonist is educated and intelligent, but self loading, depressive and a misogynist. He laments about his flubbed live and his ruined partnerships and wallows in self-pity. Houellebecq is a master of describing complex political & economic situations. Some parts are brilliantly written and justify the author`s fame. For instance: "The whole point of bureaucracy is to reduce the possibility of your life to the greatest possible degree, when it doesn`t simply succeed in destroying them; from the bureaucratic point of view, a good citizen is a dead citizen". Being educated as an economist I enjoyed the educated musings about the complex and diverse European agricultural politics. The were more smart observations, for instance about General Franco`s influence on the Spanish hotel industry, animal torture in chicken farms, the appropriate way to perform blowjobs, the phenomena of shore fishing, the beauty of Deep Purple´s "Child in Time live in Duisburg", outlandish and very obnoxious gang-bangs and so on and on. His sexual descriptions are very graphic and not always tasteful. Houellebec likes to provoke.

 

Fredéric Dard´s  "The Gravedigger´s Bread" is a quick read. The protagonist meets a woman, the wife of a grave digger, which leads to serious consequences. The short novel is macabre - as the title suggest - and comes with twists (amazon ).

I also enjoyed some nonfiction:

 

"China. A History", by John Keay (amazon ), reads like a thriller. The author describes the ups and downs of a gigantic nation, filled with action, homicides, revolutions, treasons, intrigues, heroes & villains, blood and thunder; and explains why China´s rise, the awakening "of the dragon", is just a comeback, a reawakening. In the 16th century China was already the largest and wealthiest nation on Earth. And the Asian giant had many "golden ages" before then. The Han Empire (202 BC till AD 220) was as large as the coeval Roman empire, and China`s brightness lasted until the end of the millennium, not just half way through it. But after each "golden age" came a deep fall. The history of China is as colorful as a Chinese New Year Parade. It´s also a tale about fights, and a permanent struggle about power. Keay describes the many battles between the "Kingdom of the Middle" and her neighbors, the clashes between emperors and their usurpers or families about dominance. Very often the rulers struggled with the bureaucrats, who were very powerful eunuchs. Most of the time the administration was the true ruler of the vast empire.

Lawrence Osborne known for "Hunters in the Dark", "The Glass Kingdom", "Beautiful Animals" and other novels visited the grape growing regions of Italy, California & France. The book "The Accidental Connoisseur: An Irreverent Journey Through the Wine World" (published 2004 amazon) presents his insights. Osborne talked with a lot of vintners, from small artisan producers to California`s wine Cesar Robert Mondavi and visited "Opus One ", a joint venture by Mondavi and Philippe de Rothschild, the ne plus ultra of high-technology wine making and "the most expensive winery ever built in Napa, or indeed in the world". Some of the winters are Marxists, others are part of global capitalism. Osborne tasted zillions of wines and spiced his reports with descriptions of landscapes, wineries, villages and restaurant dinners. I learned a lot about the wine business, its chemistry, politics & economics: "Because France is such a potent exporter, she cannot afford to ignore the dictates of her customer tastes, and Anglo-Saxon tastes, are not necessarily her own".

Janek Wasserman describes in his book "The Marginal Revolutionaries: How Austrian Economists fought the war of ideas" ( amazon). The movement began in the early 20th century some Austrian economists used to meet at Café Sacher and other famous coffee houses in Vienna and debated the trends of their genre. Albeit these economists differed in many things, they shared a common belief in the rights of the individuals and in free markets and disputed socialists. Friedrich Hayek (1899 -1992 ) is the most famous of them. He was an opponent of John Maynard Keynes and objected the Brit´s recipes of fine tuning the economy through government measures. Hayek explained that consumers & entrepreneurs know best what they need. He described that free markets are the most efficient way to satisfy the needs the consumers and to allocate scarce resources. Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) was a sharp critic of governments attempts to control the economy, either from the left (Socialists, Marxists) or the right (Nationalsocialists, known as Nazis). According to Mises the economy functions best when it is left alone. He described how the unregulated decisions of consumers, inventors & entrepreneurs (capitalism) lead to the best use of scarce resources (rational allocation of resource). Carl Menger (1840-1921) focused on the individuals and their preferences and explained how markets function and how everybody benefits from free trade. Fritz Machlup (1902-1983) emphasized the importance of information for the functioning of markets and the economy and explained the relation between exchange rates and the balance of payments. Gottfried Haberler (1900-1995) focused on  comparative advantages in international trade. Josef Schumpeter (1883-1950 ) became famous for his stylish elegant "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy ( a pleasure to read in German) and coined the term "constructive destruction", describing the relationship between innovation and economic development - Mark Zuckerberg`s: "Move fast and destroy things".

"Waterloo Sunrise - London from the Sixties to Thatcher" by John Davis (amazon ) describes over more than 500 pages the social, economic, political & legal developments in the British Capital. The book is very densely & dryly written and staffed with a huge amount of information.

 

There were some remarkable Biographies, especially Peter Ackroyd´s The Tudors", the second book of his series: "The History of England " (amazon ). The family ruled England for 118 years and shaped the country`s history, almost as much as William the Conqueror and his Norman relatives did 5 centuries earlier. The book focuses on four of the five Tudor monarchs, ignoring Henry VII, who lived from 1457 through 1507. Ackroyd starts in the year 1507 when Henry VIII reached the throne. The King is well known for being a monster and for his erratic adolescent behavior. The brutality, willfulness and the fate of his unfortunate six wives are well documented in so many books, plays and movies. But it is hard to feel sorry for Anna Boleyn, who was an intriguer and did what everything she could do to outmaneuver her predecessor Catherine of Aragon. Monster or not, Henry changed England forever. He released the country from the yoke of the Catholic Church and the rule of the Popes. The monarch did not intend to become a religious reformer, the reform was just a means to an end. Henry´s son Edward tried to continue his fathers reform, but did not live long enough to make any impression. The death of his almighty father - and his youth & frail health - seemed to invite rebellions and unrest all over the country. Henry´s daughter Mary, a radical and fundamentalist Catholic, tried to turn history back and bring England again under the Catholic yoke and hoped to import the Spanish inquisition. No wonder, she was known as "Bloody Mary". Fortunately for the English Mary`s terror regime ended with her early death.
Akroyd gave Elizabeth I about half of the book, more than he dedicated to Henry. Rightly so. The Queen continued her father´s religious reform and made the separation from Catholic fundamentalism and the regime of the Popes definitive. Thanks to her caution England avoided ruinous and messy wars. She helped to convert the country into a democracy - at least a bit -and laid the foundation of England becoming a sea power, with the help of many others, like Sir Walter Raleigh and Sir Francis Drake, who strengthen England´s Navy. During Elizabeth´s regency the industry of England advanced as strongly as its commerce. The Tudor epoch saw the rise & fall of men like Thomas Wolsey, Thomas Cromwell, the Duke of Norfolk and many others, who where sometimes in the favor of the king or the queen and sometimes not. 

 

Philip Norman´s biography "Mick Jagger" gives a good introduction into the complexity of giant of 20th century culture (amazon ). The author tells how Jagger met Keith Richards and started the Stones. He depicts how the band turned from a blues cover band into top hit creating engine, but stayed poor for years and reports why Jagger & Richards got arrested. We learn Jagger´s role at the infamous Altamont concert and about his failed attempts to make a career in the movie business. I was impressed how Jagger prepared physically for the stress of hours of extensive shows: intense weight training, karate, squash and daily seven-mile runs and - after the year 2000 -  a strenuous fitness regimen with daily running, swimming, cycling, gym work, yoga and Pilates, combined with a diet of whole-grain bread, rice, beans, pasta, chicken & fish. Norman also covers the rumors about Jagger´s alleged bisexuality and the gossiped menage a trois with David Bowie and Bowie´s wife Angie Barnett. 

 

I also read a biography of another pioneering rock band:  "God save the Kinks" by Rob Jovanci ( amazon). The group was controlled by the brothers Ray Davies, the composer and lead singer, and Dave Davies, the lead guitarist. Ray´s diverse creativity (hard and soft rock) and Dave´s guitar technique helped to define rock music and influenced countless other composers & performers. Dave was probably the first who used distortion in an amplifier, today the trademark of heavy metal (x.com ). Over their whole career the Davies brothers behaved sophomoric, aggressively and erratically. There were fist fights on the stage during gigs, they performed boozed, ruined their hotel rooms, suffered nervous breakdowns and more. The anecdotes about fights, sexual experiments, divorces, accidents & incidents and about "paranoia, depression, heavy drinking and living on the edge" make the book really interesting.

 

 Normally I write only about books printed in English, but Frank Schmidt´s autobiography "Unkaputtbar" is worth to make an exception ( 216 pages in German  amazon ). Since 2007 (!) Schmidt is the coach of FC Heidenheim, a soccer club located in a small city in Southern Germany. Even armed only with a tiny budget Schmidt lead the club from Germany´s Oberliga (fifth tier) to Bundesliga (first league). He describes his philosophy and explains how he shapes the team; and how he chooses and motivates players. According to Schmidt the mentality to never give up can be exercised and can be exemplified by the coach. If you want to know how an outstanding soccer coaches works and you do understand German this is the book for you.

Science Fiction: 

 

Alastair Reynolds`space opera "Revelation Space" (published in 2000 amazon) could be seen as an explanation for the Fermi Paradox (why we did not find another civilization even though the sky is full with stars). Over more than 400 pages Reynolds shapes cosmology, particle physics, Einstein`s relativity, quantum mechanics, information theory and other sciences into an exciting futuristic opera.

The book "Hiero`s Journey" by Sterling E. Lanier, (published in 1973 amazon) is a modern fairy tale and another response to the Cold War, when people feared that a possible nuclear conflict between the West and the Soviet Union would lead to an atomic holocaust. The plot is set about 5,000 years after the disaster. The nuclear strikes had changed everything and more than 5 millennia of radical radiation had extremely altered the genetics on earth and created bizarre new life forms. Like in Walter M. Miller Jr`s "Canticle for Leibowitz" there are some abbeys which are oases of civilization and try to recover humanity, but in this novel also science blends with telepathy and precognition, as a result of the genetic alterations. The protagonist is a kind of priest, but also a highly educated killer; very smart and possesses growing telepathic powers. He gets the order to travel south to discover machines from the pre-Armageddon era which could help to rekindle civilization. The book advances like a computer game: The challenges are getting more and more severe, and the protagonist learns from his encounters, he adapts to them and is getting stronger. I had a lot of fun because the author has a rich fantasy and develops bizarre environments & life forms.

Yoon Ha Lee´s short story "Counting casualties" narrates about a far future war where humanity faces a superior enemy (20 pages, published as Kindle book amazon). The plot follows some humans who are fighting a war against technologically superior aliens. The humans are supported by a hyper-intelligent but strange spaceship (AI). The enemy´s  intentions & technologies are beyond human imagination and the damages it does have never been known before. The story is told in first person by the commander of the human war fleet, who finally discovers the secret of the enemy. The story is smart, crispy, but also philosophical and I was fascinated by the author´s prose, speculative ideas & bizarre locations.

Stanislaw Lem´s "Tales of Pirx the Pilot" contains 5 short stories & novellas which follow a young man, named Pirx (amazon ). The protagonist is a dreamer, full of hopes & ideas, but has a weak self esteem and is not well regarded by his superiors. On the other side he is mentally strong, cunning and he never gives up. So he survives very challenging situations caused by technical problems, physical phenomena and other calamities. Lem interwove physics, engineering and cosmology into thrilling adventure stories, spiced with humor, psychology and a bit of philosophy. 

 

If the earth would get hit by a catastrophe that makes it suddenly uninhabitable some people might try to escape into space and seek to survive there. How would this be possible? Neil Stephenson gives the answer in his book "Seveneves: A Novel" (published 2015 amazon ). Over more than 800 pages he elaborates how some humans start to settle in space stations and similar habitats in close orbits around the world. "Seveneves" belongs to the most scientific scifi novels I ever read. About 2/3 of plot are set in contemporary times and the author uses already known sciences and technologies. He describes painstakingly how the refugees from earth create habitable places in space, endangered by vacuum, hard radiation, extreme temperatures, meteors and many other perils. Stephenson immersed deep into space flight technology, orbital mechanics, chemistry, genetics and many more branches of knowledge. The last third of the book describes an very advanced human civilization 5000 years into the future.

 

"The Collected Stories of Arthur C. Clarke" ( amazon). The tales are chronological sorted, showing the development of the author. Clarke was not only a talented story teller, he also was a scientist and used his deep and profound knowledge to interweave physics, engineering, evolution, cosmology and more science into exciting tales.In his foreword Clarke declared: "The science fiction writer does a great service to the community. He encourages in his readers flexibility of mind, readiness to accept and even welcome change - in one word, adaptability."   

The anthology "Nightfall and other stories" contains 20 stories by Isaac Asimov, selected by the master himself (amazon ). Asimov is still ahead most of the contemporary scifi writers.

 

The Mammoth Book of Extreme Science Fiction" edited by Mike Ashley is a collection of 25 short stories & novellas ( amazon). The collection covers a wide spectrum o topics, including space opera, time travel, internet of things and more.

 

 

Stock Market 2025: A Tale Of Two Tailwinds II?

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - In 2024 the US stock market rallied again. The S&P 500 climbed 23%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 29% and both finished close to all time highs (macrotrends). The logarithmic scale image below shows how the S&P 500 advanced in percents.

 

 ( source)

The gains are no surprise. In the long run the stock market accompanies the upward trend of the global economy and the rise is even accelerating, driven by the technological progress. The charts show that bear markets, meltdowns and crashes are temporary and followed by new all time highs. Below I display the famous very long term stock market chart which cannot be shown often enough. The curve mirrors the persistent exponential growth of global wealth, driven by technological advances.

 

( source)

 

In 2024 the stock market benefited from 2 tailwinds: Inflation is receding and the technological progress is gaining speed - driving the company earnings. I assume that both tailwinds will continue and will lead to new highs.

                     Receding Inflation

Inflation peaked already in June 2022 with 9.1% and dropped to 2.7%. The recent inflation was caused by a deluge of money.  In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed by massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).  

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40%. The money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19.

 

                   Causal Connection 

We learned from Milton Friedman that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” and inflation happens "when too much money chases too few goods". The causal relationship between money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus.

The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where is was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, meeting a restrained supply of goods & services. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) described already in the 1960s how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 

 ( source)

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply M2 shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately (chart above). Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will stay low.

 

            Significant Acceleration

The second tail wind is generated by technological progress. This tail wind exists at least since begin of the industrial revolution and explains the curves shown above. But it seems that technological progress is even more accelerating, thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI). 

Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla and many other technology companies are developing and training large language models such as ChatGPT,  “which are vast systems based on deep neural networks that have been trained on massive amounts of data and can then be adapted to perform a wide range of different tasks" (brookings ).  

These advanced software systems will not only foster revenues & profits of the leading AI corporations. The Brooking study claims that "large language models such as ChatGPT are emerging as powerful tools that not only make workers more productive but also increase the rate of innovation, laying the foundation for a significant acceleration in economic growth" ( brookings).

Both tailwinds should continue in 2025 - and the push by technology might even get stronger. Inflation will continue the way south, following the moderate growth of the money supply; and is getting closer to 2%. The rapid progress of AI - which seems to accelerate - should raise company revenues & profits in the coming quarters significantly, fueling further stock market gains.

Enjoy!