Economics: Why Did The Unstoppable Rise Of E-Commerce Come To A Halt?

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is much ado about the allegedly unstoppable rise of e-commerce, but data from the UK show that the advance of online shopping came to an halt - at least in percentages of total retail sales. The image on the top displays the trend in the UK over the last 20 years ( ons.gov.uk). Before 2020 e-commerce gained annually on average about 1.3 percentage points and climbed from 2.8% in February 2007 up to 19.1% in February 2020.

 

During Covid the rise suddenly accelerated and peaked in January 2021. The pandemic forced many to stay at home, to avoid crowded shops and to buy online. Therefore internet sales jumped up to 37.8% of the total retail sales. But when the pandemic came to an end, people went out again and restarted visiting shops - and e-commerce dropped relatively.

 

I expected that the pre-Covid trend will restart after a while - just on a lower level. But so far I have been proven wrong. In the recent 12 months the quotient dropped from 26.3% (April 2024) to 25.9% (April 2025). 

What are the reasons? There are no reports that could explain the setback, I can only speculate. I suppose that many people had enough from the Covid curfews and enjoy going out even more. Maybe they prefer to go shops - crowded or not - where they can meet & watch other people? 

But I believe that the advantages of online shopping - like fast & free deliveries to the home door and huge selections - will get even stronger over time and the upwards trend will return. Time will tell.

 

 

Science Fiction: Valuable Humans In Transit And Other Stories

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Being a connoisseur of science fiction I am always on the quest for new voices, those who turn science into entertaining tales, the heirs of Arthur C. Clarke & Isaac Asimov. A while ago I discovered a writer with the pseudonym qntm, who´s very weird novella "There is no Antimemetics Division" fascinated me, even though I did not fully understand it (my review ). The author can write, owns plenty of imagination and seems to be well educated in mathematics, information theory, astrophysics and the like.

I just finished the collection "Valuable Humans in Transit and other Stories" (amazon ). The crisp 9 shorts and essays did not disappoint.

I have 3 favorites:

 "Gorge", a slick space opera. The staff of a space ship discovers a sphere drifting in space that has very strange properties. They begin to explore it, with disconcerting results (this is a spoiler free block). The tale reminds of the best stories of Asimove & Clarke 

"A Powerful Culture" belongs to the best alternate worlds & parallel universes stories I read - and I had read a lot  

"The Frame-by-Frame" is a funny tale where the diverse software threads of a self-driving car are discussing with each other about a suddenly approaching challenging traffic situation, using all available information

The rest includes musings about cutting edge physicists and those who support them, digital brain enhancement, a hostage situation, a meteor disaster and more. 

I indulged into qntm´s dry style. Here a taster: "The town is like fog; so spaced out that you barely notify you`ve entered it. I failed to find anything resemble a center. I couldn´t help but think it must be made entirely of suburbs".    

Highly recommended for readers who are interested into cutting edge science fiction.  

Books: Act Of Oblivion By Robert Harris

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - The 17th century in England was a bloody mess, full of violence. After the death of Elizabeth I the Stuarts became kings. The son and the grand sons of Elizabeth`s nemesis Maria Stuart intended to turn England`s history back and tried to nullify the Anti-Catholic reforms of the Tudors. Especially the regime of Charles I, an absolutist and tyrannic ruler, ruined England and cost the lives of many. Charles`tyranny lead finally to a revolution and his execution in the year 1649, followed by a republic, led by Oliver Cromwell (very well described in Jonathan Healey`s "The Blazing World - A New History of Revolutionary England" my review ). 

Robert Harris`novel "Act of Oblivion" begins about 20 years after the execution (amazon ). Another Stuart became king, Charles II, the son of the executed, another absolutist ruler & tyrant. It goes without saying that the new king started a bloody revenge and ordered a hunt for those who participated directly or indirectly on the execution, the regicides. The plot follows two of the regicides, who had fled over the ocean and tried to hide in the English colonies, and one (fictional) man, who has just one target, to catch the regicides and to kill them.

It is a sad & sinister plot, maybe about karma - this comes from that - and also about revenge, obsession, fanaticism, bigotry, superstition and politics. The plot is well told. Harris describes 17th century London, the roughness of the English American settlements, the violence of conflicting radicals and more impressively. "It seems that wherever you go, disaster follows". 

But the plot became too depressing and the finale  seems ridiculous & implausible too me. I stick with Healey`s history. 

Contemporary Art: Carnage By Xavier Baxter @ The Hole New York

(Drivebycuriosity) - Do you like powerful abstracts? Recently I spotted a show at the gallery "The Hole" on Manhattan`s popular Bowery ( thehole). They displayed paintings by Xavier Baxter, the exhibition was called "Carnage".

 

The post starts with "Disconnect" (2025, oil, pigment sticks and charcoal on canvas 96 x 120 inches, 244 x 305 cm) followed by "In a Trance" & "Hold Me".

 

Above follow "Time"; "Blue Moon" & "Power II". 

 

To be continued