Thursday, September 17, 2026

Economics: See How Stupid The Federal Reserve Is


(Drivebycuriosity) - It turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and his comrades from the Fed Board are quite stupid. Yesterday they hiked their interest rate in order to fight the sticky inflation. Warsh complained: "This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved” (cnbc )

The sticky inflation is the result of the oil price rise in the recent 12 months caused by the Iran war. Will the rate hike create more oil? Nope. Will it stop the war? Nope. The Fed cannot turn the time back, neither do they have an influence on geopolitics and the market price of oil. These are force majeure.

The so-called “core” inflation (excluding food & energy)  dropped already to 2.4% y/y, a five-year low ( fisherinvestments). The difference to the measured inflation rate is caused by the past - the oil price gain of about 60% y-o-y.   

If the oil price stays on today´s level, then in the coming months the y-o-y price gain will go to zero - that is pure mathematics (calculus). In this case the measured inflation rate will move lower, approaching the core inflation. Only when the oil price keeps climbing - fueled by an ongoing Iran war - then the inflation will stay elevated - or even goes higher.

Apparently Warsh & Co. don`t understand simple mathematics. Yesterday`s interest rate hike gave a wrong signal, showing that the Fed is hawkish. They created another headwind for the economy, in addition to Iran war, expensive oil, trade war, AI anxiety, anti-data-center mood and a general pessimism.  

 

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Science Fiction: Bios By Robert Charles Wilson


  (Drivebycuriosity) - Maybe in a far future humans will explore planets that are light years away. The science fiction novel "Bios" by Robert Charles Wilson narrates such an exploration ( amazon). Humans try to exploid an extra-planet and are confronted with a very different fauna & flora. Soon the plot turns into a nail-biting action thriller and then into horror (this is a spoiler free blog). 

The name tells it already, the plot is based on biochemistry, but also on evolution & quantum physics. Wilson has the gift to turn science into exciting stories. He describes and explains how intelligent life developed under conditions that are different from earth. Because of the far harsher environments cells, the bricks of organic life, are much better defended, more efficient, far more complex. They synthesize a staggering array of organic chemicals and are highly dangerous for humans, who´s immunity systems are not prepared for the alien environment. 

"Bios" is also spiced with some romantics and has even some explicit sex, very different from the usually  timid scifi genre that often caters young adults.  Reading "Bios" was not only a pleasure, it refreshed my knowledge and I learned a lot new things. 

"Bios" is on the same level like Tchaikovsky`s "Shroud" or Stanislaw Lem´s classic "Solaris".  A must read for any scifi connoisseur.

Books: The Unforsaken Hiero


 (Drivebycuriosity) - 
The 1970s were the time of the cold war and everyone was afraid of a possible devastating nuclear conflict between the West and the Soviet Union. A good climate for books about post-apocalyptic worlds.

Sterling E. Lanier`s fantasy novel "Hiero`s Journey", published in 1973, belongs to best post-apocalytic scenarios (my. review). The plot is set about 5,000 years after the disaster. The nuclear strikes had changed the genes of everything living - and created new and bizarre life forms. The plot follows a military priest who is fighting against powerful evil forces, with the help of exotic mutants and his own enhanced psychic capabilities (this is a spoiler-free blog). Much fun to read.  

Unfortunately the follow-up "The Unforsaken Hiero" disappoints ( amazon). Some of the fascinating companions of the first book are missing in the begin of the novel and the new challenges and life forms the protagonists meets instead are less interesting. Parts of "The Unforsaken Hiero" remind of Brother Grimm`s fairy tales, but not in a good way.

I still recommend Vol. 1 for fans of well written post-apocalyptic fantasies. 

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Books: The Story Of China By Michael Wood

 


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Telling the history of China is a huge challenge. Michael Wood tries to narrate the "story" of the giantic country from the bronze age  through the present by going his own way ( amazon). He writes: "Our view of China opens from below, and from the fringes and the provinces; seen through the live of individuals,men and women, the dynasty founders and emperors,but also from writers and travelers, for instance a Mrs Wang and her children on a southern river Odyssey".

Wood`s anecdotes are interesting but tales about "Mrs. Wang and her children" and other anecdotes obstruct the view on the whole picture and the reader gets lost in countless sub-stories, that were not really important for the evolution of China.   


I prefer "China: A History" by John Keay (my review). His history is much more focused, more sober and much better to read and to understand. While I got lost in Wood´s "stories", I learned from Keay why China´s recent rise, the awakening "of the dragon", is just a comeback, a reawakening. 

 

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Economics; Should The Fed Fight The Iran War?

 


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Should the Fed fight the Iran war? Ok, the question is ridiculous and absurd. But many pundits - and even some members of the FOC - demand that the Fed hikes her interest rate to fight the stubborn inflation. Their pleads are synonymous.

                       Force Majeure 

Let me explain that to you. The sticky inflation is the result of the oil price rise in the recent 12 months - almost up 40%. What can the Fed do against rising oil prices? Nothing. The high oil price is caused by the Iran war. And the war is the result of geopolitical stupidity and is force majeure for the Fed. 

Inflation means CONTINUOUS PRICE RISES. If the oil price stays on today´s level the inflation effect goes away. Only when the oil price keeps climbing - fueled by worsening of the war - then inflation will stay - or even goes higher.

Would the Fed try to fight the oil-price induced price hikes the authority would cause additional headwinds for economy - and may even cause a recession. 

 

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Books: Through Two Doors At Once By Anil Ananthaswamy





 (Drivebycuriosity) - "Quantum mechanics is spooky", said Einstein, even though the genius belonged to the fathers of quantum physics. Indeed quantum mechanics, the behavior of infinitesimal small particles like electrons and photons (light), has a lot spooky phenomena. One of them is them is the result of the famous double-slit experiment. Sorry, no threesome. 

Since the 1920s physicists have been shooting a single photon through a barrier that has two slits. They noticed that - when the photon has passed the barrier - on the other side the photon created not just one impact but two or more. Can a photon exist on more than one place? 

Since the 1920s physicists have been discussing this phenomena and created more and more elaborated experiments and theories. Anil Ananthaswamy`s book "Through Two Doors At Once" sketches the basics of quantum physics and describes how physicists have been developing more and more complex experiments and theories over around 100 years  (amazon). 

Already in the 19th century started a controversy about the behavior of elementary particles, the basics of our world. Physicists stated that light is an electromagnetic wave, comparable to radio waves. But Einstein disagreed. He noticed that when a photon, a particle of light, hits an atom, the impact kicks an electron out of this atom, like a pebble causes a splash, when it hits water. According to Einstein this photoelectric effect proves that light consists of particles (photons) and not of waves.

 

                 Collapsing Wave-Function 

Unfortunately the double-slit experiments show multiple impacts on the other side of the barrier that fit to the wave theory. Einstein`s observation started a controversy about whether our universe is based on particles like photons and electrons or is based on waves. Some physicists believe that photons and electrons behave as waves when they are unobserved and turn only into particles after observation - the famous collapse of the wave-function. Schrödinger`s cat is either dead or alive as long it is hidden in a experimental box (unobserved), only when the box gets opened (observation) the state of the feline is decided. 

 Ananthaswamy presents over almost 300 pages the more and more esoteric theories that ambitious quantum physicists, many of them Nobel Prize winners, developed over the times and describes their more and more ridiculously sophisticated double-slit experiments, some of them cost meanwhile millions of dollars.

"Through Two Doors At Once" reminds of medieval philosophers who asked "can multiple angels occupy the exact same space simultaneously". Later authors mocked them with the infamous satire: How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? 



Monday, August 17, 2026

Books: Jules Verne`s: From The Earth To The Moon


 (Drivebycuriosity) - In the year 1969 the first human landed on the moon, in the year 1865 Jules Verne dreamed an early version of the journey to the earth`s satelitte: "From the Earth to the Moon". 

Verne´s moon shot happens in an alternate world, short after an undefined war, that destroyed the business of the canon producers. The President of the American gun club, that represents the American canon industry, has an idea how to compensate the missing business. Why not construct a giant canon and use it to shoot people on the moon?

Verne might have been inspired by 19th century circus shows where acrobats in the manege seemingly got shot through canons, even though the circuses used heavy rubber springs, not gunpowder, for propulsion.

The plot follows the long process from the decision to the final moon shot. The author described elaborately the engineering and the economics of the canon production and the social implications of the moonshot.  

Verne was not ignorant of the fact that humans cannot survive the immense heat & sudden push of a canon shot, so he imaged an elaborate cushioning system. "Undoubtedly the travelers would still have to encounter a violent recoil after the complete escapement of the water; but the first shock would be almost entirely destroyed by this powerful spring".

In contemporary science fiction space travelers sometimes have to survive deadly gravity caused by enormous acceleration. Scifi authors therefore imagine special beds that cushion the otherwise deadly intensified gravity.

"From The Earth To The Moon" is a funny tale, a farce, mixing fantasy with facts. Verne invented a new kind of novel, a "Roman de la Science" ("novel of science"), which allowed him to incorporate large amounts of the factual information he discovered while researching in the Bibliothèque ( wikipedia). He wrote of course for a 19th century audience, who had much less knowledge than people today. But Verne`s stories remind me a bit of a modern scifi subgenre, called cyber punk.

Even though the novel is a farce Verne acknowledges the physics of space flights: "As we recede from the earth the action of gravitation diminishes in the inverse ratio of the square of the distance; that is to say, at three times a given distance the action is nine times less". 

Anyway, "From The Earth To The Moon" is also an optimistic statement with a can-do attitude and belief into technology. Verne also praises of the efficiency of American engineering. "Nothing can astound an American. In America, all is easy, all is simple; and as for mechanical difficulties, they are overcome before they arise".

The novel has a surprising ending - but based on modern physics and cosmology. It is still fun to read. 

The novel is part of a giant omnibus reader: "Jules Verne: Complete Works (Wisehouse Classics)", that contains 47 novels! more than 10,000 pages! ( amazon). 

Saturday, August 15, 2026

Books: Whatever By Michel Houellebecq


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Michel Houellebecq belongs to the most important contemporary philosophers and novel writers in France, maybe of the world. Houellebecq`s texts are precise and analytical; he performs literary autopsies - and he likes to provoke. After enjoying the master`s recent books, I took a look on the beginning of his career and read "Whatever", his first novel (first published 1994 amazon).

Houellebecq`s debut gives already a taste of his qualities. Like later works the plot is told in first person, by a man who is pathetic & obnoxious, but also smart and has the gift of an analytical mind. 

The novel is philosophical with a very pessimist undertone - as usual for HouellebecqI am not too much impressed by the plot. But what makes me reading him again and again - and makes me a fan of him - are the author`s sharp wit and his analytical & precise musings about almost anything  

For instance: 

"Just like unrestrained economic liberalism, and for similar reasons, sexual liberalism produces phenomena of absolute pauperization. Some men make love every day; others five or six times in their life, or never. Some make love with dozens of women; others with none. It’s what’s known as ‘the law of the market’. In an economic system where unfair dismissal is prohibited, every person more or less manages to find their place. In a sexual system where adultery is prohibited, every person more or less manages to find their bed mate. In a totally liberal economic system certain people accumulate considerable fortunes; others stagnate in unemployment and misery. In a totally liberal sexual system certain people have a varied and exciting erotic life; others are reduced to masturbation and solitude2.

And: "The successive sexual experiences accumulated during adolescence undermine and rapidly destroy all possibility of projection of an emotional and romantic sort; progressively, and in fact extremely quickly, one becomes as capable of love as an old slag."

I wish, Houellebecq publishes more books.

  

 

Books: The Burning Stones By Antti Tuomainen


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Antti Tuomainen belonged to my favorite writers. I like his dark humor & his surreal descriptions of weird characters and situations and I enjoyed his droll novels like "Little Siberia", "Palm Beach Finland" & "The Man who died" (my reviews Siberia  Palm   The Man Who).

Unfortunately his book, "The Burning Stones", disappoints (amazon ). The novel is set in Finland´s sauna business, the burning stones. As usual the plot is told in first person, this time by a woman, 50 something, who is sales manager for sauna stoves. Typical für a Tuomainen novel the characters behave weird and tend to irrationality. 

In this book the weirdness gets more and more worse over the time and more and more implausible. At around 80% of the Kindle version the plot falls completely apart and the novel ends like a fairy tale.

Tuomainen can do better.  

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Science Fiction: Bowl Of Heaven By Gregory Benford & Larry Niven


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Gregory Benford and Larry Niven belong to the Grandmasters of Science Fiction. Together they created the novel "Bowl of Heaven", a fascinating space opera, Vol. 1 of a trilogy  ( amazon). Some humans want to settle in another part of the universe and started a centuries long journey, which leads to  unexpected results (this is a spoiler free blog).

The authors welted a lot sciences into a thrilling adventure story. The novel shows that Benford is an astrophysicist and professor emeritus at the department of physics and astronomy at the University of California, Irvine. But he also has the talent to create exciting stories. 

It is not surprising that the tandem imagined a breathtaking technology based on particle physics, cosmology & chemistry. For instance the authors describe a spaceship that is an intricate self-regulating system and self-tech entity, with artificial intelligences embedded in every subsystem. The spaceship is an anthology of self-critical and disciplined minds. Each mind lived its life with a reward system and constraints, dwelling in a community of diverse talents, propelled it into a social intelligence. Comparable to human societies the ship  evolved over the centuries of its flight into its own, original society.  

The authors also invented an alien world that is partly familiar and partly very strange. The inhabitants - intelligent beings, animals & plants - seem to be highly exotic, but they are plausible because based on what we know about evolution on earth. The complex  psychology & sociology of these beings (the aliens) is plausible and fascinating and I also find behavior and the relationships of the human characters interesting. There is also some sex involved, very unusual for the timid science fiction genre.

I got highly entertained, could refresh old knowledge and learned a lot new insights. I also got inspired to think about our place in the universe.

I plan to read Vol. 2 in a not too far future.

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Books: The Rules Of Attraction


(Drivebycuriosity) - Bret Easton Ellis belongs to the stars of contemporary American fiction, albeit controversial. His novel "The Shards" (published 2023 ) creates a hitchcockian atmosphere and
pulled me into a sinister vertigo (my review )

His earlier novel "The Rules of attraction" (published 2010  amazon ) doesn`t have these qualities, even the author uses very similar condiments. The plot develops in short episodes, all told in first person, by female & male characters, college students in North East US. They are all obnoxious, pathetic & egocentric. Like in "The Shards" the protagonist`s  universes circle about parties, drugs, beer and fucking - lots of fucking. Unfortunately none of them and their sheer endless experiences were interesting.

It looks like Bret Easton Ellis`craftmanship developed a lot since publishing this novel and in "The Shards" he finally welted his ideas together. 

Monday, August 3, 2026

Economy: The European Commission - The New Robber Barons


 (Drivebycuriosity) - Europe follows the tradition. In medieval times the Rhine Valley, a section of the River Rhine, that flows from the Swiss mountains to the North Sea, was flanked by castles. There lived robber barons who made their living from robbing and blackmailing traders who traveled through their territory. Today the European Union, controlled by the European Commission, does the same. The EU demands ransom from US technology corporations who do business in Europe.

“This year, like last year, the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies than from the total tax income from Europe’s own public tech companies!", reports Alex Tabarrok ( marginalrevolution). 

Recently the European Commission fined Google €890 (x.commillion for breaching their Digital Markets Act. In 2024 the European Commission fined Apple over €1.8 billion "over abusive App store rules for music streaming providers" (ec.europa.eu ). Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has been fined several times by EU regulators, including for violations of user privacy and competition laws. It is also facing new fines over purportedly "addictive" features of its apps. In 2021 the EU hit Amazon with a $886 million fine for an alleged data law breach ( bbc.com). The fine was issued by Luxembourg's National Commission for Data Protection, which claimed the tech giant's processing of personal data did not comply with EU law.

The enormous fines are not surprising. Google and other Big Tech corporation earn a lot money - that animates greed and the EU has the power to extort the profits by taking their European business ransom and blackmailing them. If US Tech wants to continue business in the EU they have to pay whatever the EU demands. 

The EU created a complex scrub of arbitrary rules to catch US Tech and accuse them of wrong doing. 

 

 

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Books: The Holocaust Industry By Norman G. Finkelstein


 (Drivebycuriosity) - The 20th century had a lot apocalyptic human tragedies: The Jewish Holocaust, the murderous regimes of Stalin, Mao & Pol Pot, the Turkish genocide of Armenians during World War I and the Japanese terror in China & Korea. And what about Hiroshima and Vietnam? Most of the are these 
genocides are almost forgotten, but the Holocaust still rules the headlines.

That is primarily thanks to "The Holocaust Industry", claims the Jewish author Norman G. Finkelstein in his little book "The Holocaust Industry" (amazon  ). The author, who is Jewish himself and had lost family members in concentration camps, is annoyed that a large group of people and organizations are taking advantage from the suffering of the Jewish people. 

Annual Days of Remembrance of the Holocaust are a national event in the US. All 50 states sponsor commemorations, often in state legislative chambers. The Association of Holocaust Organizations lists over 100 Holocaust institutions in the United States. Seven major Holocaust museums dot the American landscape. The centerpiece of this memorialization is the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. Where is the national museum refering to the genocide on the Native Americans or to some 4–5 million men, women and children died as a result of the US wars in Indochina?

 Apart from Holocaust memorials, fully seventeen states mandate or recommend Holocaust programs in their schools, and many colleges and universities have endowed chairs in Holocaust studies. Hardly a week passes without a major Holocaust-related story in the New York Times. The number of scholarly studies devoted to the Nazi Final Solution is conservatively estimated at over 10,000. 

Finkelstein reports that the Holocaust Industry includes a "credulous press ready to give banner headlines to any Holocaust-related story". According to Finkelstein "the New York Times serves as the main promotional vehicle of the Holocaust industry. It is primarily responsible for having advanced the careers of Jerzy Kosinski, Daniel Goldhagen, and Elie Wiesel. For frequency of coverage, the Holocaust places a close second to the daily weather report". Finkelstein claims that "the US is the corporate headquarters of the Holocaust industry". 

The Holocaust industry sprung up only after Israel’s overwhelming display of military dominance and flourished amid extreme Israeli triumphalism.

 

                Outright Extortion Racket 

In recent years, the Holocaust industry has become an outright extortion racket. Using the House and Senate banking committees as a springboard, the Holocaust industry orchestrated a shameless campaign of vilification.
 

 The Holocaust Industry accused Swiss bank to take advantage and … “a fifty-year Swiss-Nazi conspiracy to steal billions from Europe’s Jews and Holocaust survivors.”The campaign rapidly degenerated into a libel of the Swiss people.“a country whose citizens . . . boasted to their neighbors about their enviable wealth, was quite knowingly profiting from blood money”; that “the apparently respectable citizens of the world’s most peaceful nation . . . committed an unprecedented theft”; that “dishonesty was a cultural code that individual Swiss had mastered to protect the nation’s image and prosperity”; that the Swiss were “instinctively attracted to healthy profits” (only the Swiss?); that “self-interest was the supreme guide for all of Switzerland’s banks” (only Switzerland’s banks?); that “Switzerland’s small breed of bankers had become greedier and more immoral than most”; that “concealment and deception were practiced arts among Swiss diplomats” (only Swiss diplomats?); that “apologies and resignations were not common in Switzerland’s political tradition” (unlike our own?); that “Swiss greed was unique”; that the “Swiss character” combined “simplicity and duplicity,” and “behind the appearance of civility was a layer of obstinacy, and beyond that was solid egotistical incomprehension of anyone else’s opinion”; that the Swiss were “not just a peculiarly charmless people who had produced no artists, no heroes since William Tell and no statesmen, but were dishonest Nazi collaborators who had profited from genocide,” and on and on.

Apart from blocking access to Holocaust accounts and purchasing looted gold, the Swiss also stood accused of conspiring with Poland and Hungary to defraud Jews.  

Beyond whipping up public hysteria, the Holocaust industry coordinated a two-pronged strategy to “terrorize” (Bower) the Swiss into submission: class-action lawsuits and an economic boycott.

 In February 1996 Hevesi and McCall wrote the Swiss banks threatening sanctions. In October Governor Pataki publicly lent his support. During the next several months local and state governments in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Illinois all tabled resolutions threatening an economic boycott unless the Swiss banks came clean. In May 1997 the city of Los Angeles, withdrawing hundreds of millions of dollars in pension funds from a Swiss bank, imposed the first sanctions.

 In July 1998 Hevesi and McCall threatened stiff new sanctions. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, and California joined in within days. In mid-August the Swiss finally caved in.

Total attorney fee demands run to $15 million, with “many” billing at a rate of $600 per hour. One lawyer is asking $2,400 for reading Tom Bower’s book, Nazi Gold. “Jewish groups and survivors,” New York’s Jewish Week reported, “are taking off the gloves as they vie for a share of the Swiss banks’ $1.25 billion Holocaust-era settlement.”

After the Holocaust industry settled with Switzerland in August 1998, it deployed the same winning strategy against Germany in September.

Forgoing diplomatic niceties, Congressman Rick Lazio bluntly urged the Committee “to focus on the private sector German companies, in particular, those who do business in the US.”   To whip up public hysteria against Germany, the Holocaust industry took out multiple full-page newspaper advertisements in October.

The shakedown of Switzerland and Germany has been only a prelude to the grand finale: the shakedown of Eastern Europe. With the collapse of the Soviet bloc, alluring prospects opened up in the former heartland of European Jewry. Cloaking itself in the sanctimonious mantle of “needy Holocaust victims,” the Holocaust industry has sought to extort billions of dollars from these already impoverished countries. Pursuing this end with reckless and ruthless abandon, it has become the main fomenter of anti-Semitism in Europe.

The Holocaust industry doesn’t need a mobilized public opinion. With the support of key US officials, it can easily break the feeble resistance of already prostrate nations.   

To force submission from recalcitrant governments, the Holocaust industry wields the bludgeon of US sanctions.

A vast, well-heeled bureaucracy has sprung up. Insurance companies, banks, art museums, private industry, tenants and farmers in nearly every European country are under the Holocaust industry gun. 
 

Finkelstein reports that various persons and organization still benefit from the Holocaust. He calls that "Capitalizing the Holocaust"
 


Friday, July 24, 2026

Books: Augustus - First Emperor Of Rome By Adrian Goldsworthy

 


(Drivebycuriosity) - "The king is dead, long live the king!" The traditional proclamation, used to announce the immediate transfer of sovereignty from a deceased monarch to their successor, describes also a pivotal phase in the history of the antique Rome. In the year BC 44 Julius Caesar got assassinated, but his death made the way free for 
Imperator Augustus, the first of a long row of Roman Caesars. The impressive biography "Augustus - First Emperor Of Rome" by Adrian Goldsworthy describes the development of Rome`s first Imperator and how the Roman republic turned into a hereditary monarchy ( amazon). 

 

       Imperator Caesar Augustus divi filius 

Imperator Caesar Augustus divi filius declared: “Who could be found more magnanimous than I – not to mention again my deceased father – who more nearly divine? For I – the gods be my witnesses! – who have so many gallant soldiers, both Romans and allies, who are devoted to me, I who am supreme over the entire sea within the pillars of Hercules except for a few tribes, I who possess both cities and provinces in every continent . . . when you are all at peace . . . and, greatest of all, are content to yield obedience, I in spite of all this, voluntarily and of my dominion and give up so vast a possession”.

Augustus`stellar career was only possible because of the chaos in the Roman commonwealth during the first century BC and would have been unimaginable in earlier times. But he also was a creation of Julius Caesar himself, who adopted his grandnephew and gave him his name. At eighteen Caesar`s grandnephew ceased to be Caius Octavius and instead became Caius Julius Caesar. Julius Caesar promoted his protege further by giving him important military commands and finally made him the principal heir in his will. 

Augustus did not have the multiple talents of his foster father; he lacked the qualities of an orators, he did not become a successful advocate and was not an eloquent writer, but he was extremely ambitious & unscrupulous and became a very successful warlord. Along Marcus Antonius (Shakespeare`s Mark Antony) he was at the head of the bloody revenge campaign against Brutus and other Caesar assassins and later beat his competitor Antonius in a savage civil war and drove him to suicide. 

Goldsworthy writes: "At some point – perhaps not until the murder of Julius Caesar – Octavius/Augustus determined to be first in the state, and everything he did was directed to this end. Power was not supposed to be inherited at Rome, but armed with his sponsor`s name he rallied the dead dictator’s supporters and proclaimed his intention to assume all of his foster father’s offices and status.To achieve this he had no hesitation in resorting to violence, and so in the years that followed he killed and terrorized, switching alliances as it suited the moment. Ambition was in the blood of any Roman aristocrat, but never before had it been quite so untrammelled by convention nor so openly aimed at winning permanent unrivaled supremacy – but then never before had someone been heir to Julius Caesar, dictator for life and laden with honors greater than any Roman had ever received in the past. The situation in which the young Augustus found himself was as unprecedented as his actions, but his motivation at the very least had strong roots in the traditions of his social class".

 

                          The Wider Good 

Augustus` activity was devoted solely to the immediate end of winning power and defeating his enemies, and probably left no time for anything else. During these years he advertised his connection with Julius Caesar, celebrated the latter’s achievements, sought vengeance for his murder, and at the same time acquired power for himself. Later, in the thirties BC, he began to show more concern for the wider good, beginning to repair and add to the monuments and infrastructure of Rome, and to regulate the food supply of the City. Once again this was sensible politics, but the dedication with which he continued to act in this way was far more than the desire for immediate popularity. Augustus pursued power ruthlessly,

Till the end of his long live Imperator Caesar Augustus remained a warlord whose dominance of the state was based ultimately on his control of far greater military force than anyone else. By modern standards he was and would remain a military dictator, even if he always carefully avoided the title in its Roman sense. For all the display of resigning his powers and reluctant acceptance of the duties pressed on him by the Senate at the start of 27 BC, no one could compel him to do anything as long as he continued to monopolise military power. The legions were his, and the Senate had no real say in how they were run, nor did it any longer control the raising and disbanding of these and other army units.

It was up to Augustus and his advisers to decide on the size and shape of the army they would maintain. They needed to judge how many soldiers were necessary to secure his position against potential Roman rivals as well as how many were required to maintain the empire, defending and, where it was desired, expanding the provinces. The two were closely related. Imperator meant ‘victorious commander’ and it would be seriously damaging to Augustus’ reputation and auctoritas if the empire appeared weak to its foreign neighbors and began to suffer reverses on the frontiers or within the provinces.

In spite of Rome`s military power Augustus did not try to expand the empire. He decided against the conquest of the English Island, displaying the same caution that deterred him from risking war with Parthia, the power in the East, unless it became unavoidable. 

Since Augustus was blessed with a very long life he was able to transform large parts of Europe. Under Augustus widespread cultivation of vines and wine-making began in Gaul, while manufacturers of ceramics responded to the demands of a growing market by establishing workshops in Gaul itself. Use of coinage based on the Roman standard, already widespread in the south, extended over a wider area, fostered particularly wherever the army was based and legionaries inclined to spend their wages.

 

              Begin Of A Dynasty 

Augustus held supreme power for forty-four years. 
In this time had gone from the angry avenger of a murdered father to the unifying elder statesman and ‘father’ of the Roman world. His long life empowered him to start a dynasty and a
 long line of Roman Casesars. His adopted sons shared his popularity and were being prepared for high office. His daughter – and only actual child – proved less willing to play the part given to her by her father.  

Following the model of his foster father Augusts promoted his wider family, especially his nephew Caius Claudius Marcellus, the son of his sister Octavia. After Marcellus`sudden death Augusts adopted Triberius, the first son of Julius Ceasar´s wife Livia Drusilla, and gave him important offices and provincial commands and named him his principal heir. After Augustus`death Triberius was given powers to those of the princeps (like Julius Caesar & Augustus) and smoothly succeeded Augustus in AD 14.

The Caesar is dead, long live Caesar! 


Friday, July 17, 2026

Books: Exploring the World Of Japanese Craft Sake

  


(Drivebycuriosity) - Do you like Sushi & Sashimi, the freshness, taste & texture of uncooked fish? Then you might also enjoy sake. I was wondering how a relatively plain grain like rice can be turned into such a delicious wine. The book "Exploring the World Of Japanese Craft Sake" by Nancy Matsumoto gives an introduction (amazon ). 

The authors went to sake bars and visited a lot sake brewers and rice farmers and interviewed them. Especially the female co-author focused on the family histories of the sake makers, too much for an introduction book.

But there are also some small informative parts about the different kinds of rice used for brewing, the types of water (minerals) and the regional differences. There is one very short chapter about the alchemy of sake making and explains the chemistry of transforming the starch of the grain into final product and I learned a lot about the use of mold - a special kind of mold - during the transformation process. 

Unfortunately the book is not formatted as an e-book and it looks like a PDF -  very hard to read. I will try to find a better book. 

Books: A Case Of Two Cities - The Curse Of Series


(
Drivebycuriosity) - Everyone has to be efficient and productive these days - even writers. It seems that when an author has an idea for a good novel he stretches it out and turns it into a series. Unfortunately the following volumes are seldom good.

This is also true for Qiu Xiaolong`s "Inspector Chen Cao" series. I enjoyed volume 1"Death of a Red Heroine" about a detective in Shanghai in the 1990s (my review ). I liked also Vol 2 & 3, but I gave up reading vol 4 "A Case of Two Cities" after about 50% ( amazon).

This book focuses in corruption in China in the 1990. The subject is not new and the author really inflates it. So it becomes tedious to read again and again about the bad behavior of so many politicians and bureaucrats. There is a lot about Chinese poetry which I found interesting in the first 2 vol. but also got tiresome and slowed the already tardy plot. 

So reading Vol 1 - and maybe Vol 2 & 3 - is worth the time and the money, but not Vol. 4. 

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Economics: Why A Shrinking Population Is A Boon


  (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot ado about the shrinking populations everywhere. Are we really doomed? I doubt it.

We could learn from history. The Middle Ages already experienced drastic shrinking populations, caused by the plague. In the year 1348 the bubonic plague (Black Death) reduced populations in England and other European countries by more than 30%. As a result the living standard of the survivors rose. 

Food prices fell because fewer people purchased food. The falling demand for food forced the producers to cut their prices. Wages rose because there were fewer farmhands and other workers and the employers had to pay higher salaries.

Today a shrinking population would support the living standard of low income groups. There would be less demand for housing which would reduce rentals and food prices would be constrained. 

A shrinking population is also a big win for the environment and could be the answer to global warming, another favorite subject of the doomsayers. 

Fewer people burn less energy - and they emit fewer greenhouse gases. Fewer people also eat less; therefore the incentive to destroy forests, to gain more land for farming, becomes weaker and the problem of over-fishing disappears.

 

                  More Green & Clean 

A shrinking population also slows down the trend of turning forests & meadows into the sprawl. There is no need for constructing more and more one-family houses, streets, strip malls, store houses & parking places. A shrinking population makes the world more green & clean!

A smaller population is also the answer to another doomster alert: "The robots are coming" And: "Automation will destroy our jobs!"  (" thehill). Both trends are mostly compensating each other: A falling demand for workers, thanks to automation, compensates a declining supply by shrinking populations.

 

                      Industrial Revolution 

Machines have been replacing labor for many centuries. In the middle ages wind & water mills already substituted human & animal labor. In the 18th century followed steam power, starting the industrial revolution. In the recent centuries the ongoing automation process has been raising productivity of labor considerably - and the progress has been accelerating. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is raising the productivity of labor even even further, reducing the demand for human workers even more. 

And there is more: science is making exponential advancements in the field of robotics and artificial intelligence and will support the economy and the labor markets in the coming decades. 


               Less Work, More Income

Today even farmers are using robots, for instance for harvesting strawberries or milking cows (wikipedia). Drones are being used in warehouses and yards for inventory management. Robots also help restaurants to deal with the scarcity of labor.  

"Domino’s Pizza Inc. is putting in place equipment and technology that reduce the amount of labor that is required to produce our dough balls", reports time.com. 3D-printers are also replacing workers, even in construction. "A 3D printer can build the walls of a house in as little as two days versus weeks or months with traditional construction materials" notices today.com.  

 A study by economists John G. Fernald and Charles I. Jones from Stanford & the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco claims that "it becomes possible to replace more and more of the labor tasks with capital" (robinhanson ). Fernald & Jones define capital as physical capital (machines including robots & computers), plus human capital (knowledge & skills) plus discovery of new ideas (inventions like computer, internet etc.). According to them "artificial intelligence and machine learning could allow computers and robots to increasingly replace labor in the production function for goods", meaning that the society can produce more things without increasing hours worked or even with a shrinking labor force. As a result the growth rate of income per person and the long-run growth rate (now around 2%) will rise as well: "The possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

 

                 Universal Basic Income

Naive observers claim that a shrinking population reduces the demand for goods & services and will destroy many markets and businesses (noahpinion). These pessimists ignore that demand is the number of potential buyers multiplied with the purchasing power per capita. Thanks to the accelerating technological progress the purchasing power per capita is rising and will overcompensate the shrinking number of consumers.


I reckon that technological progress leads to:

    - rising salaries (for those still working), 

    - climbing dividend incomes and stock market gains 

which will raise the purchasing power of most people - enough to compensate the shrinking number of buyers. Even those who don`t invest in the stock market may participate via pension funds and insurance investments. 

The productivity gains will finally translate into higher tax revenues for the governments (by taxing company profits, dividends & stock market gains). Some day a much greater part of goods & services will be produced by robots and other machines. Then fewer people may work than today and many things will cost less. Then the time could come for an universal basic income, paid to everybody, and financed by productivity gains delivered with automation (driveby ).