Investing: Ignore The Noise

Iran conflict, Greece bailout delay, Moody´s warning. It`s noisy again on the markets. All the noise is almost drowning the relevant fundamental signals. The global economy is healing, but you almost miss it, because of all the noise. Forget the noise!

Every day the markets have to work through a deluge of news.  Physicists label this phenomena "white noise" (wikipedia). It`s like the hissing on radio or TV when you don`t get a clear signal. 

Do you remember that S&P downgraded the U.S. debt  in last August? Since then the Dollar rallied, the U.S. stock market gained around 15%, the interest rates dropped and the whole U.S. economy got stronger. Does anybody recall the Dubai crisis in the spring 2009 or the Iceland financial crisis in 2008? All water under the bridge! It was just noise.

Investors who ignored this noise did well, because the stock markets doubled since the end of the recession in spring 2009. The stock markets are following the upswing of the global economy, which will continue in the coming years because of low interest rates, technological innovations ( drivebycuriosity) and the catch-up race of China and other fast emerging markets. I reckon therefore that all the noise today delivers a buying opportunity for long term investors.

Movies: Rampart

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Dave is a cop. Dave also is a racist, a chauvinist, a rowdy, a murderer and a robber. Dave has the nickname "Date Rape Dave". But anyway, women have a crush on Dave. The movie "Rampart" (directed by Oren Moverman imdb) tells the story of Dave, who seems to have a teflon identity. Whatever he does, he doesn´t get suspended. 

"Rampart`s" makers (including script co-writer James Elroy) claim that Dave´s story belongs to the so-called "Rampart scandal" (wikipedia). of the late 1990s when the anti-gang unit of the Los Angeles Police Department Rampart Division was accused for offenses including unprovoked shootings, unprovoked beatings, framing suspects, stealing/dealing narcotics and bank robbery,  writes Wikipedia.

I don´t really know whether the movie character has many resemblances with the historic reality. The plot shows too many implausibilities. For instance Dave is living together with 2 ex-wives, who are sisters (!) and raises his daughters with them. But anyway, "Rampart" is very good movie.

The flick extends the long list of dirty cop movies and reminds me a bit of "Bad Lieutenant" (1992 directed by Abel Ferrara 1992  imdb), where Harvey Keitel plays a rogue cop in Manhattan. In both films the leading character is a troubled man, who is a victim of his own obsessions.

Woody Harrelson, one of the coolest actors of the contemporary cinema, is perfectly cast as Dave. It`s much fun to watch Harrelson`s acting as an adrenaline and  testosterone driven cop with a huge attitude. It seems that nothing could his concuss his aplomb and his belief that he is on the right side.

Director Moverman, cinematographer Bobby Bukowski and composer Dickon Hinchcliffer wove a compelling cocoon of pictures & sound. Sometimes the flicks works like a fever dream drawing the viewer into the emotions of Dave.

Maybe the movie is on next year´s list of Oscars nominees.

Culture: Zaungast (Onlooker) At Fashion Week New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - New York City is famous for Wall Street and Madison Avenue (Advertising), but the metropolis is also a center of the global fashion industry. In 2010 alone the fashion and retail industries together pumped $10 billion into New York City`s economy (nycgo.com). 

Beauty and fashion needs public admiration. Therefore the global fashion industry displays and celebrates itself at four major fashion weeks held around the world. The semi-annual New York Fashion Week, branded Mercedes-Benz FashionWeek, is one of them (along with those in Paris, London, and Milan) (wikipedia).

This spring`s New York Fashion Week, which started last Wednesday and runs through Feb. 16, brings together about 328 designers and lots of models - much to see and a feast for TV and the print and online media (bloomberg).

I am just a humble blogger and don`t possess an accreditation for these exclusive events. But I`m curious. 

Therefore I joined the group of Zaungäste (onlookers) and enjoyed the occasion to take some shots from persons streaming to or from the events at Manhattan´s Lincoln Center.

At least some glamorous spots at a chilly February day.

Movies: W.E.

Life is very often the choice between two exclusive alternatives. If you go to place A you can not go to place B. The movie ".W.E." (directed by Madonna imdb.com) deals with such a choice. It`s about King Edward VIII of England. In 1936 the monarch choose to sacrifice his crown in order to marry the American divorcee Wallis Simpson, who wasn`t accepted by British protocol.

Madonna showed her ambitions to become an even more acclaimed artist. The pop icon (and her script writing partner Alek Keshishian) follow the fashion, which mingles a historical plot with a contemporary story, now shown in many movies.

The flick combines the story of Edward & Wallis with a contemporary tale of an American woman named Wally, set mostly in Manhattan 1998. This woman is obsessed with the story of Wallis, who appears in her fantasies and influences her life, while simultaneously suffering an abusive drunk husband and then starting a romance with a Russian security man.

The conjunction of both - very different - plots didn`t really work for me, but I found the flick entertaining anyway. I especially enjoyed the nostalgic  glances into the early 20th century made possible by the work of Huw Arthur (art direction) and Arianne Philips (costume design).  The flick also benefitted a lot from the exquisite cinematography by Hagen Bogdanski. Furthermore, I had fun spotting the life of the highbrow British aristocrats and the travails of their servants, who had to follow a strict ritual by protocol and acted sometimes like robots.

"W.E." is a somewhat entertaining play about ambitions, romance and the sacrifices created by them.

Books: Politics, by Adam Thirwell - Revisited

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Everything is so complicated. Iran conflict, recession scars, Greece negotiatons, U.S. presidential race, you name it. But complications can be funny, at least  Adam Thirlwell is making fun of it.

His novel "Politics" (first published in 2003 amazon.com ) doesn´t deal with Geopolitics, business cycles and debt problems. Thirlwell describes just a microcosmos, a relationship between a man and girl, and sometimes with a second girl. But nothing really functions in this microcosmos because human interactions are complex,  which might also explain why the whole complex world looks so messy. A reason why I reread the book recently.

The author narrates about a relationship between Moshe, a theater actor in London, and Nana, a student of architecture, and sometimes a third girl named Anjali. Thirlwell`s style reminds me to a surgeon doing an autopsy. He doesn`t just sketch the psychological issues, like jealousy, or the simple misunderstandings (who can read the mind of his/ her partner?), he also narrates explicitly the technical problems of their sex life.

I enjoy Thirlwell`s style and his attitude. The author claims that his attitude to fashion "is a technical interest and respect combined with an amazed sarcasm". I guess "amazed sarcasm" describes how he deals with the characters of his book. And reading sarcastic meditatations about all the difficulties in this microcosmos is helping me a bit to deal with all the incomprehensions we read all day in the news.

Stock Markets: Do We Have A New Tech Bubble?

There is now much ado about an allegedly new tech bubble (google) (businessinsider) (wire.kapitall.com) (marketwatch) (money.cnn.com). The trigger is the recent rally of the NASDAQ. The technology dominated stock exchange is around 11% up so far this year and reached a 11-year high. And companies in the sectors Internet services, software and electronics are hiring like crazy (bloomberg).

I don`t share this rumpus, quite the contrary. I believe that many technology stocks, including companies like IBM which are traded on the New York Stock Exchange and not on the NASDAQ, are still at the begin of a renaissance which should last some years.

Technology is getting more and more important. More and more people are using smart phones, computer tablets and other devices to surf the internet, to communicate and to download music, movies and books. Technology is conquering our households and our leisure time. Chips & software are increasingly controlling cars, household appliances and TV sets. And the use of technology to diagnose, monitor or treat diseases or medical conditions is accerlerating.

Companies have to invest into IT because they must react to a world where everything is accelerating. They have to process a deluge of data when they are dealing with competitors, exploiting chances in foreign markets and adapting to a rapidly evolving world.

If the stock market is a mirror of the economy than the growing importance of the technology industry, especially of the Internet sector, should be reflected in a rising valuation of technology stocks.

Economy: Benefits Of Globalization

Today we got news that in January manufacturing in the U.S. grew faster and that the industries of  Germany & UK were expanding again (bloomberg) (bloomberg).

I reckon that the acceleration of manufacturing in these countries displays the benefits of globalization. The growth engines in Asia, China & India, aren´t much hampered by the European mess. Both countries have a huge demand to adapt to Western standards of wealth and will continue their adaption process for many years.

Bloomberg reports today that the manufacturing indices for China & India rose in January (bloomberg), which is a sign that the industries in both huge economies are growing faster instead of the European weakness. More growth in the leading Asian economies means more exports for Caterpillar, Volkswagen and other Western companies (drivebycuriosity), which explains the acceleration of industrial growth in the U.S. and the new manufacturing growth in Germany and U.K.