Photography: Boomtown New York City

(Drivebycuriosity) -  New York City is a boomtown again. Almost everywhere you can see new towers growing into the sky. The construction boom creates a lot of jobs & income. It raises the density & productivity of the megacity. The fledgling skyscrapers also enhance the complexity of the cityscape and are making New York`s skyline even more dynamic. The massive construction places with the huge cranes are fascinating objects for amateur photographers like me because of their impressive shapes & the composition of colors (I took the pictures recently with my iPhone 7 Plus).

Above you can see the growing Hudson Yards project on Manhattan`s East Side along the name-giving river. Hudson Yards is almost a town including 16 skyscrapers, open public spaces and more ( wikipedia). The buildings - and especially the majestic cranes - look elegant & powerful like the works by artists like Richard Serra, Anish Kapoor and other contemporary artists.



                                                   Breathtaking Speed 

Above a rising tower on the East River (250 South Street) in combination with Delancey Crossing, another mega construction project. Both are symbols for the breathtaking speed of the Lower East Side`s gentrification.

Two more towers are getting squeezed into the dense skyline south of Columbus Circle. I am fascinated how slim this constructions are.

I spotted another slim tower on Broadway somewhere in midtown.

One more midtown skyscraper.

This tower is rising in Tribeca. In the background you can see the Jenga-like Herzog & de Meuron building which got recently completed.


Enjoy!

Contemporary Art: What`s New In Chelsea?

(Drivebycuriosity) - I love contemporary art. Therefore I sometimes explore the art galleries in New York`s Chelsea district which has a cluster of top-notch art dealers. At my recent visit there I discovered again some interesting new art works. I show here my favorites from this foray, a very subjective selection as usual.

Above you can see some paintings by Franklin Evans spotted @ gallery Ameringer McEnery Yohe (525 West 22nd Street  amy-nyc).

I also enjoyed the drawings & sculptures by William Tucker which I found @ Danese Corey  ( 511 West 22nd Street danesecorey).

The sculptures above are created by Barbara Chase-Riboud seen @ Michael Rosenfeld gallery ( 100 Eleventh Avenue @19th  michaelrosenfeld).

Above Rebecca Warren`s  "Los Hadeans" (2017, Hand-painted bronze and pompom on painted MDF pedestal) spotted @ Matthew Marks   ( 523 West 24 Street matthewmarks). The sculpture is part of a group exhibition which also shows Michel Majerus`mural "depressive neurosis" (2000, Acrylic on cotton).

The funny large murals by Kara Walker @ Sikkema Jenkins & Co. (530 West 22nd Street  sikkemajenkins) got a lot admirers.

Enjoy!

Economics: China - Viva La Transformation

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot skepticism about China. For years the China skeptics - including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman - have been predicting that the country`s rapid growth will come to a sudden end. It didn´t happen, China is still maintaining a growth rate of more than 6% p.a. But global investors are still wary and they now hold a decade-low underweight position in China equities, reports investment bank Morgan Stanley (morgan). I think that the China skepticism is unwarranted and the huge country will continue her swift ascent for many years.

China is still at the begin of a secular catching-up process, which is fueled by extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation values. In 2016 China had about $8,123 income per capita, the US number was $57,466 (worldbank).  China is following other countries which had managed to catch up to the leading economies before  (to UK before 1920, since then to the US, graph below) 

It is highly likely that China will continue her catching-up-process for many years. The country has a huge natural resource which is fueling the perpetual growth - a gigantic amount of human capital: 1.3 billion people who are intelligent, who work hard and who save money to achieve a better life. According to the World Bank the Chinese save more than 40% of their income, the American just around 20% (worldbank). High savings (capital accumulation) and a good education lay the fundamentals for sustainable economic growth. Wikipedia counted in 2014 already "2,236 colleges and universities, with over 20 million students enrolled in mainland China" (wikipedia). This fast expanding knowledge will drive science & innovations in the future and foster economic growth.

China has still a communist government but Beijing had conducted many reforms in the recent decades. Today the country has a lot of capitalist segments like stock markets, special economic zones and many private companies (bloomberg). The differences to the US system - where banks & industries are regulated and airports, harbors, railroads, subways and more are still public - are shrinking.

China`s growth is boosted by a rapid transformation process.  For decades the country has been changing from an agricultural economy into an industrial economy, following the role models of the US, Japan, South Korea and many other countries. Now China is entering another stage of the transformation process: Changing from an industrial country - which relies on exports - into a modern economy like the US which is dominated by services and focuses mostly on the domestic market.

For years imports & retail sales have been growing faster than exports & industrial production. Therefore a growing part of the national production is consumed in China, which reduces the country´s dependence from global markets.

 

 






           Greatest Migration In Human History


The transformation process is fueled by the rapid urbanization: Since the late 1980s several hundred million people have been moving from rural areas into the big cities, the greatest migration in human history. By the end of 2015, 56% of the total population lived in urban areas, a dramatic increase from 26% in 1990 (wikipedia ). The huge country now has more than 100 cities of over 1 million residents, a number that is likely to double in the next decade, writes the Guardian (theguardian).

The migration process into the mega cities rises productivity and incomes of the whole nation. History shows "that clusters of talented and ambitious people increase one another’s productivity and the productivity of the broader community, spurring economic growth", explains city lab, a think tank (citylab). "80% of economic output originates in cities: urbanization is the engine of economic growth", says the project syndicate, another think tank (project-syndicate). The migration process fosters a fast rising affluent middle class, driving consumer spending & economic growth.

China also is benefiting from the fact that her infrastructure (trains, subways, harbors, airports) are much newer and therefore much more modern than US. Beijing is pumping trillions into airports, railroads and other infrastructure, the country has already some of the fastest trains of the world.

It suppose that China´s catching process also benefits from historical lessons & the experience made by other countries. China does not need to reply the mistakes of other countries and is learning from them. Beijing`s central bank is doing a good job by avoiding inflation & recessions. China´s transformation also gains from technological progress: Rapid advances in software & Internet (including cloud computing), robotics, 3D printing, nanotechnology, genetic engineering and other technologies are all lifting the productivity of the economy.

The Internet - including the "cloud" - increases the flow of information and reduces the cost of data. New ideas can spread faster, encouraging discoveries and inventions and boost the technological progress & China`s transformation. A large part of the population uses already smartphones, tablets and other devices which allow them permanent access to the world wide web. These high tech devices help them to organize shopping, leisure time, traveling, dating, eating out and more and are so rising productivity & economic growth. Companies are using cloud services for organizing. China has already huge Internet  companies like Alibaba, Tencent & Baidu which are growing fast and are becoming global power houses. The government - and companies like Baidu - are investing massively into artificial intelligence which will boost transformation & economic growth for years to come. I suppose China`s rise will also foster the global economy and will make it more diversified & crisis-proof.

Viva la transformation.  

PS For illustration I used an image from the China Fashion Week in Bejing 2017 displaying creations by designer Tom Dong (xinhuanet).

Stock Market: Who Needs A Fund Manager Anyway?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The global stock markets are climbing The S&P 500, the gauge of the US stock market, gained about 14% in the recent 12 months and is close to an all-time-high. Since spring 2009 the value of US stocks has more than tripled. Stocks in Europe & Emerging Markets are rising as well and those investors who venture in FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google/alphabet) enjoy even much higher gains.

That´s bad news for fund managers - and all sorts of stock market professionals. Who needs a fund manager when stock markets are climbing years and years?

No wonder, that many professionals hate the rally. Many fund managers and other pundits call the end of the rally on CNBC, Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Reuters and other media. These professionals are scared and furious because their customers are running away. People are skipping managed funds. Instead they are buying index funds (funds which follow strictly an stock index like the S&P 500) and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) which do the same. "ETFs are eating the US stock market" comments the Financial Times  ( ft.com if this link doesn´t work try to copy it into google search).



                                                        Missing The Mark


The run into index funds has another reason: The majority of managed funds has been underperforming the stock market for many years.  "The S&P 500 outperformed more than 92% of large-cap funds over the last 15 years", reports the Fortune Magazine ( fortune). "More than 90 percent missing benchmarks over a 15-year period", writes CNBC (cnbc).

The continuous underperformance is not surprising. Many fund managers are clueless and are just gambling with the money of their clients. When stocks fall, they get pessimistic and they sell. They are buying the shares back when stock prices rise again. So they often they sell cheap and buy dear. The transactions (selling & buying of stocks) add to the other costs of the fund (salaries of the fund managers, research, administration, lawyers, marketing and more). All these costs are paid with the money/portfolio of the clients and deteriorate the performance of the fund.

Every Joe Sixpack who buys an ETF on the S&P 500 can participate in stock market gains and can beat the fund managers. Enjoy!

Traveling: The Bliss of Crossing California`s Deserts

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - My wife and I are back from our travel in the US southwest. In Las Vegas we took a rental car and drove to Santa Barbara on the Californian Pacific Coast. Some days later we drove back to Las Vegas. So we crossed the deserts in Eastern California twice, the Mojave Desert & the Sonoran Desert.

 

I grew up in Germany which has a rainy climate. The landscape is green and when you travel you see a dense mixture of forests, agriculture, cities & villages.  So I am fascinated by the emptiness of the landscape in Nevada & East California. We could drive for hours without seeing any house, just deserts. It is a bliss to experience the clear air and the very bright light. The vast open landscape and the nearly unlimited horizon is mesmerizing.  The car`s air conditioning protected us from the heat which wasn`t unpleasant anyway thanks to the very low humidity.

 

The deserts we crossed are flat & mostly wide valleys surrounded by rough & naked mountain chains. In spite of the extreme conditions they aren`t completely empty, there is some vegetation which adapts to the rough environment. In some parts we spotted colonies of tough grass, other parts had robust bushes and even flowers. The combinations of sand, rocks & vegetation culminates into an awesome beauty.

These deserts are perfect examples how life adapts to the predominate conditions and thrives almost anywhere.

Above you can see some Joshua trees, also known as a Yucca, which only grow in Southwest US, and have specialized to the arid environment.

We also enjoyed the rare dessert cities we passed or where we stayed - including  Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Joshua Tree and Twentynine Palms. These places are made possible by technologies like air conditioning & irrigation systems. They generously use the empty space around them. Above an image of Palm Springs.

We have to go back!

PS I took the pictures with my iPhone 7plus,