Economy: Ammunition From The Gas Station

Today the U.S.stock market closed in red again. Bloomberg wrote "U.S.Stocks Drop as Retail Sales Fall" . But I reckon that this headline represents a misunderstanding. The U.S.retail sales were indeed down 0.2% from April to May (marketwatch). But this was mainly the result of the sinking gas prices which reduced the expenditures at the gas pumps. Sales at gas stations slumped 2.2% in May, the biggest retreat since December. If gas purchases are omitted, retail spending actually rose a slight 0.1% last month.

The falling costs for gas gives consumers some ammunition to buy other goods which they partly used in May. Sales rose 0.9% at apparel stores and increased 0.8% at electronics and appliance stores. The biggest beneficiaries were Internet and mail-order companies; they posted a sharp 1.3% increase in sales.

The recent fall in the oil prices therefore should fuel the engine of the economy, consumer spending, in the coming months and this could induce gains on the stock market.

New York City: Capital Of Coolness

New York City is my favorite place. Last week 2 studies were published independently which  confirm my view:  The "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation", a U.S. institution, reported that life expectancy in New York City rose more than in other U.S. cities (theincidentaleconomist.com). They estimated the life expectancy for each of the USA’s 3147 independent cities and counties. Manhattan’s life expectancy rose 10 years between 1987 and 2009, the largest increase of any county, and the other four counties that make up New York City were all in the top percentile.

And the research company "InSites Consulting" reported "that American youth find New York (49%) to be the coolest city in the world, ahead of London (33%), Tokyo (32%), Paris (32%), and LA (26%)" (marketingcharts.com). New York is seen as even more cool in countries such as Germany (53%), Sweden (53%), France (53%), and Spain (54%), though the Danish (60%) and Italians (66%) are far and away the most impressed.

I don`t know if there is any connection between these results. Maybe it´s just a coincidence. But both reports fit together. Yes, NYC is cool. The metropolis seems to be a global magnet for cool people from everywhere. The streets, pubs, bars and restaurants are crowded with them. And in the night many places are filled with pulsing life.

The city isn´t just the leading financial center in the world, the place also is a hub for fashion, advertising, media and even an uprising center for Internet technology, nicknamed Silicon Alley (wikipedia). This makes the place to a huge cluster of wealth which attracts many people - a kind of snowball effect.

New York City is by far younger than London, Paris or other European metropolises, but many parts are more than 150 years old. That is old enough to develop some patina & culture which makes a city more charming, especially neighbourhoods like the Lower East Side, Soho, Chelsea or the East Village in Manhattan. Maybe the pleasure of living in this city contributes to the rising life expectancy.

Economy: Benefits Of Globalization II

Today we got news that "China’s May exports and imports increased at more than double the pace analysts estimated" (bloomberg). Overseas shipments climbed 15.3% from a year earlier to a new record. Imports rose 12.7%. Bloomberg reported further "that trade with the U.S. rebounded, supporting growth in the world’s second-biggest economy as domestic demand slows".

Last week we also got news that the U.S. service industry, which represents the lion`s share of the U.S. economy, grew a bit faster in May (calculatedriskblog.com).  And the Federal Reserve Bank wrote in their "Beige Book" that overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace (calculatedriskblog.com).

It looks like the U.S. and China, the world`s leading economies, are supporting each other and both nations benefit from globalization and the increasing exchange of goods and services. The data suggest that trade between the U.S. and China is lifting income and wealth in both countries.

The symbiosis between America and Asia should also benefit the rest of the world. Especially nations that are export oriented like Germany should also gain rising exports. I reckon therefore that the growing global trade will help Europe to mend. Continuing growth in the U.S. and China in combination with a healing European economy could kindle a strong rally on the stock markets in the coming months.

Science Fiction: In the Ocean of Night, by Gregory Benford - Revisited

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - I love books, but often I stop reading before the end, because I lose my interest. Otherwise I will re-read some books from my library very often. One of these favorites is "In the Ocean of Night", by Gregory Benford (amazon.com). This is a hard science fiction novel (first printed 1972) in the tradition of Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke. The author mingles his tale with sciences like physics, logic, evolution and information technology.

Benford tells the story of an encounter with an alien sentiment. This is a space ship from another star system which is only inhabited by an artificial intelligence. Astronauts also discover ancient alien artifacts in our solar system. The book focuses on 20 years in the life of the leading character, who is a scientist and an astronaut for NASA. The novel describes how his personal life changed in response to his experiences and dialogues with the alien machine brain and the artifacts.

"Ocean of Night"  plays in a very near future. It isn´t`disturbing that the story already starts in the year 1999 and spans just to the year 2019. Maybe it describes a parallel world. 

Benford didn´t expect much progress for the human species by the start of the 21st century and designed a somewhat pessimistic view of the near future. He was especially very skeptical about politics and social relationships and constructed a lot of conflicts between the rationally behaving leading character and his NASA employers and his associates. But this makes the story more interesting.

The books doesn`t have a lot of action or spectacular technological accomplishments. Benford is more interested in plausible speculations about how alien life and their technologies might advance in the course of millions of years and in philosophic questions about the role of the human species in the universe.

The logical and scientific style of the book tells that the author started his own career as an astrophysicist and scientist (wikipedia). This is one of the virtues of hard science fiction and makes it more interesting for me. Benford also showed his scientific interest in the sporadic sex scenes, which are an exception from usually prudish science fiction literature which caters mostly young adults. Included is a Ménage à trois, between a man and 2 women, described in the language of an engineer. Hence, the author created a unique form of erotica suitable for this form of literature. 

"Ocean of the Night" is even worth reading today.

Economy: With A Little Help From The Gas Station

Recent weeks were very disappointing for the global economy. The stock markets tanked world wide, U.S. job growth almost came to a deadlock, manufacturing in the U.S., China & India slowed down and the mess in Europe got worse. But there is one good piece of news which suggests that the global economy should pick up soon: Oil become much cheaper.

The U.S. oil price (represented by the future for WTI) fell 17% to $86 in May, the international price (Brent future) sank 15% to $102 (bloomberg). On Friday both futures dropped another 3%. Falling oil futures translate into sinking gas prices, especially in the U.S., just in time for the summer travel season.

The large drop of the energy costs means great relief for the global economy. Cheaper oil should work as an additional economic stimulus package. Companies have lower production costs and therefore higher profits, and consumers have more money to spend.

The current situation differs significantly from the summer of 2008. Then, the price of oil climbed to $147 even though the recession had already started. Expensive energy worsened the situation because it sucked a lot of money out of the economies of the U.S, Europe and Asia (econbrowser.com). Many consumer with small budgets had to repond. And they did so by reducing their expenditures on consumer goods to pay for rising gas prices. Since then, U.S. oil became about 40% cheaper (Brent 30%) and is therefore much less of a drag.

It is not a coincidence that U.S. retailers reported solid sales number for May (reuters). It looks like the lower expenses at the gas pump compensate for the sluggish job market. I believe that the falling oil price could rekindle global economic growth and should induce a strong comeback of the stock markets driven by a rally of transportation companies and retailers.

Culture: Deep Sea Green/Knall/Frankensteins Ballet at Blue Shell, Köln (Cologne)

Visiting a rock concert with a variety of unknown groups is a bag full of surprises. Last Saturday I enjoyed a concert evening at the "Blue Shell" in Köln (Cologne, Germany  blue-shell.de). This is a tiny rock venue in the center of the city which reminds me a bit of the "Mercury Lounge" and similar venues in Manhattan.

At that evening they had 3 bands whose style is strongly influenced by the psychedelic sound of the late 60s (wikipedia). These groups played experimental rock with some heavy metal influences and used a lot of electronic sound effects.

The evening started with "Frankensteins Ballet" (no Saxon genitive). This is a local band (myspace.com/frankensteinsballet) who cultivates the tradition of Krautrock, a term used for avant-garde German bands from the 60s and 70s like Amon Düül II or Guru Guru (wikipedia). During their whole concert the vocalist was squating on the ground making bizarre but rythmic noises. His voice, together with guitar, flute, keyboard and percussion - played by his colleagues -, produced a hallucinatory atmosphere which bundled into a drifty and powerful sound.

They were followed by "Knall" ("Bang" in German), who also is a local band (myspace.com/knall). They amplified this power, thanks to the strong Riffs served by the 2 guitars and their percussionist. The 4th member of the quarter contributed with a device like an iPad which he used as a kind of keyboard.

The last group of the evening, the main act, was "Deep Sea Green" from London  (deepseagreen.co.uk/). They gave their final Gig on their recent European tourney. DSG are 4 young musicians who performed a kind of stoner rock (wikipedia), meaning a powerful and groovy mixture of blues with heavy metal and psychedelic elements.

The 3 groups fitted perfectly together and combined to a surprisingly strong concert evening, a bliss. Thank you "Blue Shell" and thank you Deep Sea Green, Knall & Frankensteins Ballet. I hope to see these bands again - in whatever combination.

Movies: Elles

There are not many controversial topics which are  discussed as much as the subject of prostitution. The french movie "Elle" (imdb) deals with this issue in an open minded and unbiased way.

The film shows some days in the life of an acclaimed middle-aged female journalist who has been writing then an elaborate article about the life of some student prostitutes in Paris for the prestigious magazine "Elle". She is leading very long interviews with 2 sex professionals about their life and profession. Some of these episodes are shown as flashbacks.

Director Malgorzata Szumowska, who also co-wrote the script, doesn`t follow the mainstream opinion that prostitution is a vice or that prostitutes are exploited by men. The 2 call girls shown in the movie work as upper level escort services. They are young, pretty, have a lot of aplomb and seem to enjoy the wealth and economic freedom their profession provides for them.

One of the girls claims that what she does with her clients doesn`t differ much from what she does with her boyfriend. The other compares prostitution to smoking – an addiction with benefits that are hard to give up. Some of their clients are pathetic and have disgusting demands. But these girls don`t seem to mind.

Juliette Binoche, who plays the journalist, is persuading as usual. Besides her job as journalist her character is a housewife with 2 spoiled sons plus a workaholic husband and is ignored by them all. The interviews seem to challenge and to question her own repressed life.

The sporadic sex scenes aren`t suitable family entertainment but they aren`t real. By far, the movie isn`t as explicit as some flicks from Larry Clerk (Ken Park), Michael Winterbottom (9 Songs) and Gaspar Noé (Irreversible). "Elle" is more of an analytical study than an entertaining movie.