Economics: Opec - A King For A Day, A Fool For A Life

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Oil prices are on a tear recently. Since December the price for Brent Crude, the gauge for the global oil market, jumped almost 50%. The rally was caused by Opec. The cartell wants to hike the oil price to the 80s and higher as it was last summer. Saudi Arabia and their accomplices continue their supply cuts even though the Iran sanctions and the crisis in Venezuela are curbing the supply of oil already.

Opec´s strategy reminds me of an old saying: "A king for day, a fool for a life". The cartel might be successful for the time being, but high & climbing oil price will cause more demand destruction which will lead to lower prices in the future. Oil is already too expensive for the sluggish economics in the US & Europe. In the US, the by far biggest user of oil,, the demand for gasoline is shrinking, at least per capita (chart below). Americans seem to be less obsessed with cars & driving and cars are getting more fuel efficient over the time. This trend could accelerate because electric care are getting more popular.

China, the world's largest auto market, is working on a plan to ban the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels. Bejing has already announced that any automaker producing or importing more than 30,000 cars in China must ensure 10 percent of them are all-electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen-powered by 2019. That number should rise to 12 percent in 2020 (cnn  bloomberg). Germany, France, UK and other countries want also get rid of fuel driven engines. So in some years the global demand for gasoline will shrink dramatically. The falling  demand for oil could end Opec`s regime soon.

Economics: Why A Shrinking Housing Sector Is Good News

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot lamentation about the shrinking housing sector. Reuters reports "U.S. homebuilding dropped to a near two-year low in March, pulled down by persistent weakness in the single-family unit segment, suggesting the housing market continued to struggle" (reuters). They added: "Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, dropped 0.4 percent to a rate of 785,000 units in March, the lowest level since September 2016".

I think this is good news. The fewer houses are build, the better for climate, economy & society. There are already way to many single-family buildings in the US. When I travel I often drive through a vast urban sprawl, a sheer endless row of houses & mall which covers large areas. Building more houses expands the sprawl and destroys more forests, bush- and grassland and amplifies the greenhouse effect. If people instead chose to live in multi storey buildings in big & dense cities like New York they would leave more room for green nature and so curb global warming - at least a bit. 

People who live in the sprawl also need to drive a lot for jobs, labor & leisure. Unfortunately the exhausts of their car - and the trucks which cater these areas - are a part of the greenhouse gases which create global warming. The more houses are build in the sprawl the larger is the emission of greenhouses gases. If people would decide to live in the big dense cities they would need to drive less & shorter distances. I live in New York City and I don´t need a car (and I don`t have one) because the distances are short. Most things can be done by walking or using subways & buses.

Americans who live in the sprawl also depend on gasoline. As a result the US economy is addicted to gasoline and gets hurt when gas prices spike. Nine out of ten of the U.S. recessions since World War II were preceded by a spike up in oil prices, writes Prof. James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego (econbrowser  ). In 2008 rising household energy prices constrained household budgets and increased mortgage delinquency rates" (oilprice). Low income suburban homeowners suffered most from the rising gas prices.  Poor homeowners are called "subprime" and their delinquencies are known as "subprime crisis."

I am aware that everybody has the right to live in the sprawl and to continue to drive a lot. You may do so, but please, stop whining about climate change, oil prices, loss of green nature & recessions.

New York City: A Spring Day In Washington Square Park

(Drivebycuriosity) - It´s spring again. Bright sunlight and pleasant temperatures inspired me to go to Washington Square Park, a popular place in South Manhattan. Apparently many other people got the same idea and seemed to enjoy this lovely spring day in open nature . The park was crowded and I used the occasion to take some snapshots.

Trees, flowers and people combined to a flamboyant spring image.

Some read, some played music, others enjoyed just watching other people.

To be continued

Movies: High Life Is An Underrated Gem

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Black Holes are mysterious objects and inspire the fantasy. No wonder that many science fiction writers web stories around them. The French cinema auteur Claire Denis delivered her own version: The movie "High Life", an European co-production which is now running in selected US cinema theaters (imdb). 

According to wikipedia "the film focuses on a group of criminals who are tricked into believing they will be freed if they participate in a mission to travel on a spaceship towards a black hole to find an alternate energy source while being sexually experimented on by the scientists on board".

The New York Times describes the movie as a "very wild, far-out thing", the director declares "her movies have a certain tenderness, a certain humanity" (nytimes). I agree with both sights. I found the film very speculative, but also fascinating. Denis mixed space opera, assumptions about the weird effects of black holes and astrophysics with a psychological drama about young people trapped in a tiny vessel on a no-return trip, a suicide mission. 

The result is a rare art-house sci-fi drama, kinky & exciting. Naturally emotions & conflicts are cooking up in such a claustrophobic environment. The movie is spiced with sexual innuendos, violence & horror (but, sorry, no lightsaber fights).

Obviously the film was produced on a low budget but I found the cinematography interesting anyway. I have never seen such a space ship before (designed by the Danish-Icelandic artist Olafur Eliasson). There were of course influences of Kubrick´s "2001: A Space Odyssey", John Carpenter´s iconic weird "Dark Star" and other movies but Denis found her very own ways. 

I was glad to see Juliette Binoche as the doctor in command. The actress is still beautiful, attractive and seductive - and not shy of her body & sexuality.  Robert Pattinson incarnated impressively a stoic and monkish person and I also enjoyed watching Mia Goth & Agata Buzek.

High Life is an underrated gem.

Contemporary Art: Jia Aili`s Futuristic Dreamworlds

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - China`s star is rising swiftly. The huge country is not only becoming an economic superpower, the People`s Republic is gaining also weight in the world of art. A population of 1.4 billion people is a vast pool for all kind of artists.

Recently I saw a show with works by the Chinese artist Jia Aili which fascinated me ("Combustion" @ Gagosian, West 21st Street, New York gagosian). I already reported about his sinister quartet "Stardust Hermit", a set of apocalyptic visions ( driveby). This post focuses on a very different set of paintings. These are all surreal, colorful & very dynamical - a style which reminds me of the German painter Neo Rauch. I took some pictures and display here my favorites, a very subjective selection as usual.

I don´t know the name of the painting above. Many of Aili`s paintings are called "Untitled" anyway. I see here a futuristic & very mysterious dreamworld full of energy.

 

Above a detail shot.

 

Above you can see Aili`s explosive painting "Sonatine". A Google research leads to the movie "Sonatine" by the Japanese cult director Takeshi Kitano (wikipedia). According to Wikipedia the gangster film won numerous awards and became one of Kitano's most successful and praised films, garnering him a sizable international fan base (wikipedia). Maybe Aili dreamed an alternate world Japan.

 

Above more details from "Sonatine". These lightning strikes and burning heads appear also in other paintings by Aili. It seems the artist is fascinated by energy and her incarnations.

 

Above details from the mural "Geometry in the Sky" (2017, oil on canvas, 106 3/8 x 82 3/4 inches/270 x 210cm).

 

Above details from a similar painting

 

Above more details - again very dynamical.

 

To be continued

Books: London - The Biography By Peter Ackroyd

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - London is one of the greatest & fascinating cities of the world. The British capital deserves a good biographer. Fortunately the metropolis got one: Peter Ackroyd. His "London - The Biography" is a pleasure to read and highly informative (amazon). 

I had fun & learned a lot about "a queer a adventurous amalgam called London". Ackroyd calls the city "a labyrinth, half of stone and half of flesh". He declares, that "each area of London has its own unmistakable character, nurtured through time and history; together they resemble a thousand vortices within the general movement of the city". It seems that Ackroyd`s book is a biography of many "Londons".

The author did not write chronological. His book "moves quixotically through time, itself forming a labyrinth". Each of the about 80 chapters of the voluminous book (848 pages) focuses on a special topic. The author covers a vast variety of subjects, we read about periods of decay and recovery, about cycles of speculations and bankruptcies, about riots, mobs & fashions. 

We learn about the influence of the Romans, who called the city "Londinium", of the Angles, the Danes, the Saxons & the Normans, how immigrants & tourists transformed the city. We read about public executions, street gangs, bear-baiting & female sword fights, about eccentrics & exhibitionists. Ackroyd shows us the rich & the poor, the whores, monks & hermits, we look on churches, taverns & brothels, we observe how districts & streets developed and changed their character, how neighborhoods rose, fell and rose again.


The Thirst For Spectacle

Ackroyd can certainly write. I enjoyed his clear style & the precise but elegant - and often amusing -  descriptions. He presents the city as "the home of the spectacle, whether of the living or of the dead". "It is impossible to overestimate the thirst for spectacle among Londoners through many centuries": "When in 1590 the cadaver of Henry VII was carried along Cheapside, a wax effigiy of his royal person, dressed in the robes of the states, was placed upon the hearse. The wagon was surrounded by priests and bishops, weeping, while the king`s household of six hundred persons followed in procession with lighted candles. It was the kind of funeral parade at which London has always excelled".

Being an economist I enjoyed how the author presented the development of London`s markets & businesses, "the intricate and gigantic mechanism which is London and London trade". Ackroyd reported about fish mongers, tanners, butcher & stock brokers: “The London artisan rarely understands more than one department of the trade to which he serve his apprenticeship, while countrymen workmen tend to know all the aspects of their professions - a token of the specialization of London".

 It`s amazing how Ackroyd squeezed a huge amount of literature - including Aldous Huxley, George Orwell, H.G. Wells, C.K. Chesterton, Charles Dickens, William Thackeray, Geoffrey Chaucer and myriads of other authors - into this book and manged to entertain the reader as wheel. 

If you live in London, you will discover your city anew, if you are visiting the metropolis, the book helps you to understand the place much better, anyway"London" is a pleasure to read and gives a lively impression how our world has evolved over 2000 years.

Contemporary Art: William Bailey`s Lovely Realistic Paintings @ Betty Cunningham New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) -  I like to look frequently into Betty Cunningham gallery. The art dealer, located on Manhattan`s Lower East Side, has often interesting exhibitions and a nice portfolio of artists. At my recent visit I saw a show with works by William Bailey. The artist has taught at Yale and specializes into realist paintings as you can see here. I really love his work and I display here my favorites from the show, a very subjective selection as usual.

Aren`t they beautiful?

To be continued