Monday, September 23, 2013

Economy/Stock Market: Think Outside The U.S. Box

(Drivebycuriosity) - It looks like that the global economy is gathering speed again. This morning we got news that manufacturing in China is accelerating. "A Chinese manufacturing index  rose to a six-month high in September, signaling that a rebound in the world’s second-largest economy is gaining steam," wrote Bloomberg (bloomberg). We also learned, that services growth in the Euro-area accelerated to the fastest in more than two years in September as demand and confidence improved (bloomberg). Therefore the U.S. economy, which is growing solidly, is getting some tailwinds from overseas because U.S. companies can export more goods & services to China & Europe.

This quarter could be the second quarter with an accelerating global economic growth back to back. According to the Economist the pace of global growth increased during the second quarter of 2013—only the third quarterly acceleration in three years (economist).

The U.S. stock market didn´t cheer the good news. Today S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed both in red. According to the media the market focused on the Federal Reserve Bank and the expected tapering of their stimulus program QE3 ( Stocks also fell because of a political brawl in Washington D.C. Bloomberg wrote: "Hardening positions on the federal budget and borrowing limit, and recent political setbacks suffered by both President Barack Obama and Republican congressional leaders as they go into the fight, are raising the odds of a government shutdown, debt default or near-miss that could roil equities markets" (bloomberg).

Since spring 2009 the stock market has been following the upswing of the global economy in spite of ongoing disagreements in Washington D.C. Therefore I reckon that tapering and a potential temporary U.S. government shut down will weigh less than a stronger global economy, especially for the profits of the U.S. companies. Consequently I believe that today´s negative stock market response will soon be corrected. I expect that the growing momentum of the global economy will drive the S&P 500 further north.

I think that investors should think outside the U.S. box (tapering by the Federal Reserve and the Washington D.C. brawl) and should instead focus on the stronger picture of the world economy.

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