Saturday, February 20, 2016

Economy: Goldilocks Is Still Here

(Drivebycuriosity) - If we believe the media then the US economy is in a mess and on the brink of a recession. But the newest facts from the economic frontier tell otherwise:

- US retail sales (ex gasoline) are growing 4.5% year-over-year -and accelerating (Chart below)

- average hourly wages are advancing 2.5% year-over-year - and accelerating

- unemployment rate is at 4.9%

- weekly jobless claims are on a downtrend and  close to a 40 years low

- industrial production & manufacturing are growing (reuters)

- core inflation rate is 2.2% (calculatedrisk). Deflation?

There are lot of tailwinds: Gasoline, heating oil and natural gas (heating costs) all cost about halve of 2014.

- interest rates are very low

 Goldilocks is still here.

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