Economics: Ending The COVID-19 Lockdowns - Canaries In The Coal Mine

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It seems the whole world is in a lockdown - with the exceptions of China & South Korea. But some countries in Europe and some states in the US may follow soon and will reopen their economies step by step. Sitting in Manhattan, the COVID-19 epicenter of the US where the lockdown has been extended through Mid-May, I am watching these experiments with rapt attention. These early openers will be canaries in a coal mine. If it turns out that the liberations will cause a second wave of infection because they were too soon and too fast, then other countries could be more cautious.

Germany plans to ease the lockdown step by step. German Chancellor Angela Merkel  announced plans to slowly ease restrictions brought in to tackle the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing rules will stay in place until at least 3 May, with Ms. Merkel also recommending the use of face masks in shops and on public transport. But beginning Monday April 20 shops under a certain size could open their doors. And schools will gradually start to reopen from 4 May (bbc ).  Spain, one of the countries worst affected by the coronavirus pandemic, has already eased some restrictions and allows those who cannot work from home, such as those in the construction and manufacturing industries, to return to work (cnn). Around 300,000 nonessential workers are estimated to have gone back to their jobs in Spain's Madrid region on Monday April 13.  Denmark also opened schools and shops last week. Italy reopened some retail businesses as well — mainly shops selling books, stationery and children's clothes (nbcnews ). According to the media some Italian shop employees already complained that news of the government shutdown decision came suddenly and had not given them and others enough time to prepare. While other Italians fear a second wave as the lockdown is eased leading to a renewed nationwide shutdown.

I can understand the fears. Opening factories and shops can lead to crowds and some workers & customers may disobey the distancing rules. When I am shopping in Manhattan I often have to maneuver around people who ignore the social distancing rules and there are so many joggers on the streets who ignore the obligation to wear face masks. I am especially skeptical that reopening schools will be safe. I notice so many ruthless grownups in New York City who don´t care about the security of their fellow beings, so how could we expect social distancing from children?

It is also an open question how potential customers and workers will respond. Austria lifted restrictions on Tuesday April 13. Reporters from British paper "The Independent" observe empty streets and shops ( independent). They claim "shop owners are afraid that people will continue to stay away despite lifting of restrictions". In the US some factories were closed independently from government lockdowns. The meat processors Tyson Food and Smithfield Foods closed factories independently from each other because several workers there tested positive, General Electric shut down a wind power factory because employees became infected.

I hope that these experiments will go well, then other countries can follow and curtail the economic damages caused by the lockdowns.  Time will tell!

PS The image above shows a lonely shopper in Austria`s capital Vienna ( independent )