Books: Tyll By Daniel Kehlmann

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - The 17th century was a dark period, especially in Germany, which was just a patchwork of independent kingdoms, duchies, electorates & free cities, loosely connected as The Holy Roman Empire. The devastating "Thirty Years War", which lasted from 1618 through 1648,  reduced the German population by 20%.  Armies marched through the country -  murdering, burning, looting & raping everything what was on their ways.

The book "Tyll: A Novel" by Daniel Kehlmann is in set in these dystopian times (amazon ). The book focuses on Tyll Ulenspiegel,  a fictional entertainer and court jester who traveled through the war stricken country. Kehlman leads his readers into a dark history reigned by sheer horror. The plot focuses less on Tyll himself, Kehlmann instead describes persons who crossed Tyll`s ways during his life. The readers meet a king and a queen (kind of), a miller, Jesuits & witch hunters, desperate soldiers and more. Some chapters are grizzly & dramatic, others funny and hilarious or resemble elegant stage plays, there are intellectual mind games, horror scenarios & philosophical discussions. All episodes are glued together by Kehlmann`s crispy & elegant style - pure bliss.

The novel is loosely based on Tyll Eulenpiegel, a chap book printed in 1512,  about a fictional entertainer who traveled through the German countries in the first half of the 14th century (wikipedia ). The German name Eulenspiegel (or Ulenspiegel) means "owl mirror" in English. The fictional but legendary Tyll was known for playing practical jokes on his contemporaries, exposing vices at every turn. The Eulenspiegel legend inspired novels, comic books, theater plays, museum exhibits & music compositions. Kehlman´s version might be the most ambition interpretation.

Daniel Kehlmann became famous with his novel "Measuring the World" about the German scientist & explorer Alexander Humboldt (here my  review ). "Tyll" is even better and belongs to the best books I read in a decade or more.

Science Fiction: Dark Matter By Blake Crouch

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Some physicists believe that there is not just our universe, they think there exists a multiverse with an infinite number of worlds. Some if these worlds are very similar to ours and others are very different - and there could be different versions of us.

Blake Crouch weaved these ideas into a science fiction thriller: "Dark Matter" (amazon). We follow a physicist, an expert in quantum mechanics, who is suddenly drawn into a chain of challenging situations. I won´t tell what is happening to him, this is a spoiler free blog, but the book is a real a page turner, at least parts of it. The novel has a lot action and is filled with obsession, love & family. But the author also nicely describes some quantum mechanic phenomena and elaborates some implications of the multiverse theory.  "Dark Matter" is a nice escape read.

Economics: COVID-19 Pandemic - What Is Wrong With The Americas?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The world is fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic, with different results. While many countries in Asia & Europe got the virus almost under control, the Americas seem to lose the fight. 4 countries from the American continent belong to the top 8 in the global corona statistics, lead by the US & Brazil ( worldometers). In the US the number of new daily cases doubled again in the recent weeks and the country has a quarter of all total reported cases of the world! What is wrong with the Americas?

(source source source )

Contrary to the Americas, Far Eastern countries like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia have just a few people who are still sick with COVID-19 and in Europe the numbers of new cases are shrinking as well. Below you can see the charts of Italy, Spain, Germany & Austria.

( source )

Even UK & Russia, which are still corona hot spots,  report falling numbers of new cases (charts below)

( source )

Unfortunately in the US the numbers are exploding, especially in the southern states, like Florida, Texas, Arizona & California

( source )

The situation is similar in Brazil (chart below)

What causes the differences?  I think there are two main explanations. First the authorities in Asia and in Europe enforced the lockdowns earlier than the Americans. The relatively quick response helped to brake the infection chains - at least most of them. And they are reopening very cautiously. Germany for instance has corona limits for every county. If there are daily more than 50 reported new infections the authorities take measures like implementing local quarantines ( spiegel.de)

It also seems that the majorities are cooperating. Apparently the majorities in most European & Asian adapted and learned how to deal with the new situation. The majorities behave disciplined, they are practicing social distancing, wearing masks and hand washing. "Millions of Europeans have made social distancing and mask wearing part of their daily routine.” observes the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com  ).

The exploding numbers in the US, Brazil and their neighbor states suggest that their authorities implemented the lockdowns to late & and that they may reopen to fast. But the explosive growth after 4 months of pandemic also shows that average Americans are less cooperative. Apparently the average Americans behave less disciplined than average Asian & European and they show less respect for the live of others. And their authorities are less inclined to enforce social distancing & wearing masks in public.

In my Manhattan neighborhood the majority adapted nicely, the majority wears mask in public and keeps distance. Unfortunately I also spot a ruthless minority who doesn`t get it. Bowery Boogie, a website which covers Manhattan`s Lower East Side, observed that "drinking in groups on the streets – in daylight – is apparently the trend in Hell Square" (some blocks on the Lower East Side ( boweryboogie ). There is frequent congregating, often without face protection; it goes unchecked until the cops are forced to break up the crowd. Reports from Florida, Texas and other southern states show that there are many more who ignore the rules. There are also ubiquitous reports on social media about the "Karens" who go shopping or are dining without masks and respond aggressively when they get criticized. The US and the southern Americas also have a macho culture, men who think that it is unmanly to wash hands and that wearing masks demonstrates weakness. (I don`t really know what they think - if they think - but their behavior reveals a lot). Apparently many Americans don´t have much self discipline and they don`t show much respect for the live of others.

"Americans are self-absorbed" explains one commentator on the blog Marginal Revolution (marginal ). And he adds: "Wearing a mask doesn't protect the mask-wearer (unless it's an N-95 mask), it protects others from the mask-wearer. What self-absorbed American is willing to wear a mask? Duh".

Karens, machos and other covidiots keep the infection chains alive and they might even cause a second wave for the whole US which will put the reopenings at risk. If the US numbers get even worse the governors of the federal states might be forced to revive the lockdowns and maybe even need to cancel the announced reopenings. And more factories & shops will get closed because their workers get sick or stay at home, which will extend and even worsen the recession. It seems that the ignorant people are sabotaging the openings and the economic recovery.   

The global differences in the corona statistics show differences in the quality of people and differences in the competence of their governments. America sucks!

TV: Binge Watching Homeland

(Drivebycuriosity) - My wife and I used the recent lockdown weeks for binge watching "Homeland" on Showtime -  8 seasons and 96 episodes (imdb ). The show follows Carrie Mathison, a  CIA agent. Cathy is a fragile but extremely smart woman, with some mental health issues. Carrie compensates her weaknesses with obsessive stubbornness while defending her country at home and on assignments in Iraq, Pakistan & Germany (wikipedia).

Carrie has to deal with terrorists and other enemies and is also struggling with incompetent associates & superiors and her own problems. Homeland is very political, but contrary to "West Wing", the show does not suggest that US government employees can walk over water. The show instead depicts an incompetent, hypocrite & paranoid bureaucracy which is always on the brink of defeating itself. The thriller is immersed with a lot of psychology & drama, spiced with breath taking action scenes - often on a large scale.

Homeland impresses with an amazing cast. I indulged watching how Claire Danes as CIA officer Carrie Mathison manages all her challenges and I also enjoyed following Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody,  Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson,  Rupert Friend as Peter Quinn & Maury Sterling as Max Piotrowski. Watching "Homeland" is a perfect escape in challenging times.

Economics: Don`t Blame The Recession On Politics, Blame It On The Covidiots

(Drivebycuriosity) - There are a lot protests against the lockdowns which kept most factories, shops  restaurants and other businesses shut down for months. The protesters claim the lockdowns were unnecessary and caused a severe recession. They are wrong.

The lockdowns were a response to the exploding growth of infections, hospitalizations & deaths. In March the European & American numbers of new infections grew daily about 30%, doubling every third day. The virus jumps from person top person, it needs an intact chain. These chains can be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). But in March the populations in Europe & the US weren´t prepared for the pandemic. They needed time to adapt and to learn.  The lockdowns enforced a lot of social distancing, even though many ignored the rules, and cut many infection chains. The lockdowns also gave the majority some time to adapt to the crisis, to learn social distancing, to purchase or create masks and to get used to them. Without lockdowns the the extremely high growth rates of infections, hospitalizations and deaths would have continued and US - and the rest of the world - would have got multiple times sick & dead people.

The enforced social distancing through lockdowns worked in Europe and reduced the infections significantly (chart on top of the post: the blue space shows the development in the US, the green in Europe cnbc ). Apparently the European majorities cooperated.  It seems that the Europeans have the discipline to endure lockdowns, wear masks and practice social distancing.  Now they are earning the rewards. The low numbers of infections, hospitalizations & deaths allow the European governments to reopen their economies step-by-step. Austria began to reopen 2 days after Easter, Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries follow. All this reopenings are going well so far (charts below worldometers).

Even the UK, where the government started the lockdowns too late and is already (too early) reopening, - has shrinking numbers so far (chart below).

Unfortunately the reopening in many US states doesn`t go so well. The nation still reports more than 20,000 new positive cases daily.  It seems the US reached a high plateau (chart below  COVID19 ).

The high US numbers are partly caused by the fact that the governors of the states started the lockdowns too late and they are opening early, maybe too early. But the continuing how growth rates of new infections are also caused by the behavior of the population. The high - and still steeply rising numbers in many states - in the US suggest that many Americans have less discipline and don`t care to infect themselves and others.

In my Manhattan neighborhood the majority adapted nicely, the majority wears mask in public and keeps distance. Unfortunately I also spot a ruthless minority who doesn`t get it. Bowery Boogie, a website which covers Manhattan`s Lower East Side, observed that "drinking in groups on the streets – in daylight – is apparently the trend in Hell Square" (some blocks on the Lower East Side ( boweryboogie ). There is frequent congregating, often without face protection; it goes unchecked until the cops are forced to break up the crowd. The New York Post reports that a nightclub on the Lower East Side opened on May 1 for an exclusive, invite-only party, in apparent violation of coronavirus lockdown orders ( nypost).

Some southern states - including Florida, Texas, California & Arizona - are now reporting a sharp rise of new corona cases - after 3 months pandemic! Did they learn nothing? Apparently the Covidiots quotient - percentage of people who don`t care about the pandemic, hygiene & distancing  - in these states is much higher than in Europe.

( source )

( source )

The covidiots keep the infection chains alive and might even cause a second wave for the whole US. They are putting the openings at risk. If the US numbers get worse the governors of the federal states might be forced to revive the lockdowns and maybe even need to cancel the announced reopenings. And more factories & shops will get closed because their workers get sick or stay at home. It seems that the ignorant people are sabotaging the openings.   

Economics: Why Did The Rich Cut Spending More Than The Poor?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that the media has always something to complain about "The Rich". The New York Times laments "The Rich Cut Their Spending. That Has Hurt All the Workers Who Count on It. The steepest declines in spending during the coronavirus recession have come from the highest-income places" ( nytimes). And CNN whines "Rich Americans cut their spending, and that hurt low-income jobs" (cnn ).

I wonder in which world these journalists live. Here in Manhattan, where I live, are all restaurants closed where "The Rich" usually go for fine dining and spend (a part of) their money. But the fast food dives in my Lower East Side neighborhood are all open for take out. "The Rich" are missing the chef created tasting menus (for more than $200) and have to do with some  tacos or a pizza for less than $10. A lot of saving!

The shops which offer fashion, furniture, fine cutlery and other expensive things the "Rich" like to buy are closed. And so are the Apple & Microsoft shops. But the Walmarts and Trader Joe´s are still open. A lot of saving - for the moment. The Rich like to travel business class and to stay in expensive hotels. Closed! So are the spas! More saving.

In the moment "The Rich" cannot spend their money as they want, in German the phenomena is called "Zwangssparen" (forced saving). Does the New York Times really pay so bad that their scribblers don´t know about these things?

Science Fiction: Broken Stars Curated By Ken Liu

(Drivebycuriosity) - China`s star is rising. There are about 1.3 billion people who are gaining more global influence, not alone because of their sheer number. Such a huge country has a legion of talented people of course. No wonder that China`s science fiction writers are getting more and more interesting and important. The anthology "Broken Stars",  16 short stories by different authors curated by Ken Liu, gives an glance into China`s contemporary scifi scene (Amazon).

I found 3 gems even Isaac Asimov & Arthur C. Clark would be proud of: 

 

In "Reflection” by Gu Shi the narrators meets a clairvoyant, a 14 year girl, who can see the future but with handicaps. Even though the story is told in a casual way there are deep philosophical implications. Entertaining & thought provoking ( this is a spoiler free blog).

 

In “The New Year Train” by Hao Jingfang people have disappeared who were traveling with a vehicle based on advanced technologies & phenomena .like quantum mechanics and black holes.  The very short story is cutting edge hard science fiction and much better than her Hugo awarded novella "Folding Bejing" (available in the compilation "Invisible Planets" here my  review) 

 

In “The Brain Box” by Regina Kanyu Wang people can get brain boxes implanted which store some minutes of thoughts before they die. A man uses this device to acquire the last thoughts of his late wife.

The anthology has more strong stories:

 

"What Has Passed Shall in Kinder Light Appear” by Baoshu is set in an alternate universe where history of China & US proceeds backwards.  The story is told in first person full with a lot dramatic & romance.

“Moonlight” by Cixin Liu, known for his "The Remembrance of Earth`s Past" trilogy (here my review), deals with the question how to stop climate change and presents the consequences of different solutions in a kind of time travel story.

 

"Goodnight, Melancholy” by Xia Jia focuses on a woman who is teaching 2 learning machines, known as AIs. She treats these machines, who have bodies,  can walk & talk, like children, while being inspired by the works of computer pioneer Alan Turin. Nothing happens here, but I liked this story better than her paranormal stories in "Invisible Planets".

 

“A History of Future Illnesses” by Chen Qiufan is a selection of very short stories with a lot of interesting ideas about what could get wrong with technological progress.

I had much fun with some fairy tales. The surreal novella “The Robot Who Liked to Tell Tall Tales” by Fei Dao reminds of Stanislaw Lem`s robots stories, medieval fairy tales by Brothers Grimm and Alice  in Wonderland" - hilarious but also philosophical.

In “The First Emperor’s Games” by Ma Boyong an ancient Chinese emperor plays today´s computer games.

“Submarines” by Han Song focuses on poor people who live in submarines in a river.

The fictional stories are followed by 3 essays about Chinese scifi. I found "A Brief Introduction to Chinese Fiction and Fandom" by Regina Kanyu Wang interesting.

10 good stories (60%) out of a collection of 16 is a very strong crop.

Stock Market: The Confusion Of The Pundits

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It seems the pundits are confused. The US stock market rallied more than 40% since the March low and recovered most of the losses  (chart above cnbc ). But many experts are skeptical and dismiss the gains as a bear market rally. Bear markets start when the stock market drops 20% or more and they end when the stocks recover 20% or more which starts a new bull market (.investopedia ). The pundits were fast to call a new bear market after a quick drop of 30% in March but they dismiss the new bull market. "We aren’t arguing the bear market is over"  (msn  fisherinvestments).   A double standard?

( source )

The pundits are confused because the Corona bear market lasted just 4 weeks, way shorter than the shortest bear on record (drivebycuriosity). The skeptics also doubt that the gains are sustainable. I believe the risk that the market will revisit the March depths is low.

​​The short lived Corona bear market mirrored the horror as the pandemic became global. In March stocks were pricing in worst case scenarios and sellers panicked. The daily growth rates of new infections were above 30%, the number of cases doubled in just 3 days, the headlines warned about exponential growth and pundits predicted that in the US 50% or more will be infected and everything will be shut down for many months.

(source  )

( source )

Today many countries - including Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany & Austria - are almost rid of the virus and even in the US the numbers of new Corona cases, hospitalizations and deaths dropped sharply (charts above). That gives many countries in Asia & Europe and states in the US the opportunity to reopen step-by-step. There are also reports that parts of the US economy started to recover, supported by Friday´s surprisingly strong US job market report.

The second half of the year could show an economic boom starting in the third quarter. There is a huge backlog demand. People are tired from sitting quarantined at home, they will be happy to go back to work and to visit shops, bars, restaurants. The recovery will be still be fueled by the $6 trillion plus stimulus tsunami which works as financial steroids. There also will be strong tailwinds from record low interest rates  and oil prices are still much lower than at the start of the year.

There is also a big fundamental change going on. More people are working, learning & shopping from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales in the US are surging, more people are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Amazon already hired 100,000 people to deal with the exploding demand and Facebook reported explosive demand. 

Economics: China - Back To Normal?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It looks like that China`s economy is back to normal. Yesterday we learned that "the Caixin China General Services PMI jumped to 55.0 in May 2020 from 44.4 in the previous month, pointing to the first month of growth in the service sector since January and the fastest since October 2010, as the economy recovers from strict coronavirus-led containment measures" (charts below). New orders rose the most since September 2010, boosted by stronger domestic demand. This barometer shows the current development in the service sector, which accounts for more than half of the Chinese economy and is therefore more important than manufacturing (like in the US)

 (source  )


China`s industrial production also recovered, according to the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (charts below).

(  source)

As a result the China Composite PMI, which combines both indices and respresents the whole economy also jumped back to normal ( charts below)

 ( source)


China´s fast recovery from the corona crisis is no surprise. Beijing responded early, fast and consequently to the pandemic. Apparently the population has enough discipline for hand washing, mask-wearing & social distancing. As a result China´s numbers of new infections, active cases and deaths fell to almost zero (worldometers )

 ( source )

The success allows the reopening of China`s economy and the return to normality. China`s economy might even get stronger when the corona crisis has past. History shows that consumer and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks (twitter). Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: they get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative.  Companies are streamlining operations and are getting more efficient & productive as they always do when they are challenged.

People, who were forced to stay at home for a while, will use the internet for work, shopping and entertainment more often & intense. This way the virus will boost the digitization process which already has been driving China`s transformation process on her way to become a modern economy where most of the national GDP is created by the service sector (like the USA, UK, Germany and other Western countries). The digitization will drive productivity growth across all industries, leading to more economic growth (driveby).

Books: These Women By Ivy Pochoda

(Drivebycuriosity) -  The life of a hooker in Southwest Los Angeles is dangerous. Timid US laws forbid  brothels, so the sex workers have to do their business on the streets and in cars where they often fell prey to creeps. Ivy Pochoda follows in her novel"These Women" some women - hookers, their mothers and neighbors - in a gritty Los Angeles neighborhood were a serial killer has been wielding his terror over many years (amazon ). The book got a lot applause and praised by Vogue, New York Times Book Review, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and many others.

There are lot descriptions of SW Los Angeles which are inspired by noir thrillers by Raymond Chandler and similar writers and there are interesting observations about local birds, but the rest - especially the floppy dialogues - is tedious and unpleasant. "These Women" is a waste of time.