Friday, June 19, 2020

Economics: Don`t Blame The Recession On Politics, Blame It On The Covidiots



(Drivebycuriosity) - There are a lot protests against the lockdowns which kept most factories, shops  restaurants and other businesses shut down for months. The protesters claim the lockdowns were unnecessary and caused a severe recession. They are wrong.

The lockdowns were a response to the exploding growth of infections, hospitalizations & deaths. In March the European & American numbers of new infections grew daily about 30%, doubling every third day. The virus jumps from person top person, it needs an intact chain. These chains can be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). But in March the populations in Europe & the US weren´t prepared for the pandemic. They needed time to adapt and to learn.  The lockdowns enforced a lot of social distancing, even though many ignored the rules, and cut many infection chains. The lockdowns also gave the majority some time to adapt to the crisis, to learn social distancing, to purchase or create masks and to get used to them. Without lockdowns the the extremely high growth rates of infections, hospitalizations and deaths would have continued and US - and the rest of the world - would have got multiple times sick & dead people.

The enforced social distancing through lockdowns worked in Europe and reduced the infections significantly (chart on top of the post: the blue space shows the development in the US, the green in Europe cnbc ). Apparently the European majorities cooperated.  It seems that the Europeans have the discipline to endure lockdowns, wear masks and practice social distancing.  Now they are earning the rewards. The low numbers of infections, hospitalizations & deaths allow the European governments to reopen their economies step-by-step. Austria began to reopen 2 days after Easter, Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries follow. All this reopenings are going well so far (charts below worldometers).





Even the UK, where the government started the lockdowns too late and is already (too early) reopening, - has shrinking numbers so far (chart below).





Unfortunately the reopening in many US states doesn`t go so well. The nation still reports more than 20,000 new positive cases daily.  It seems the US reached a high plateau (chart below  COVID19 ).








The high US numbers are partly caused by the fact that the governors of the states started the lockdowns too late and they are opening early, maybe too early. But the continuing how growth rates of new infections are also caused by the behavior of the population. The high - and still steeply rising numbers in many states - in the US suggest that many Americans have less discipline and don`t care to infect themselves and others.

In my Manhattan neighborhood the majority adapted nicely, the majority wears mask in public and keeps distance. Unfortunately I also spot a ruthless minority who doesn`t get it. Bowery Boogie, a website which covers Manhattan`s Lower East Side, observed that "drinking in groups on the streets – in daylight – is apparently the trend in Hell Square" (some blocks on the Lower East Side ( boweryboogie ). There is frequent congregating, often without face protection; it goes unchecked until the cops are forced to break up the crowd. The New York Post reports that a nightclub on the Lower East Side opened on May 1 for an exclusive, invite-only party, in apparent violation of coronavirus lockdown orders ( nypost).

Some southern states - including Florida, Texas, California & Arizona - are now reporting a sharp rise of new corona cases - after 3 months pandemic! Did they learn nothing? Apparently the Covidiots quotient - percentage of people who don`t care about the pandemic, hygiene & distancing  - in these states is much higher than in Europe.



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The covidiots keep the infection chains alive and might even cause a second wave for the whole US. They are putting the openings at risk. If the US numbers get worse the governors of the federal states might be forced to revive the lockdowns and maybe even need to cancel the announced reopenings. And more factories & shops will get closed because their workers get sick or stay at home. It seems that the ignorant people are sabotaging the openings.   



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