Covid-19 Pandemic: How The US Can Avoid A Third Wave - What We Could Learn From The UK

(Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still struggling with the Covid-19 Pandemic. It seems that in the US a third wave is developing. The majority of the US states are already reporting rising numbers of new infections and New York City suffers climbing positive rates (washingtonpost). The US would follow the developments in the European Union, Brazil, India and other regions. The new wave is fueled by mutations of the virus (British variant, Brazilian variant, maybe unknown variants) which are more infectious and maybe more deadly.

(confirmed new infections, 7-days-average, Asia: dark blue, Latin America: light blue, US: very bright blue, Europe: dark red, source)

But I believe that the US could avoid a third wave if the authorities respond very very fast. They need to speed up the vaccination roll out. The third wave is starting now and people need to survive April and May without severe health issues.

First the authorities should permit all available vaccines. This would expand the number of doses and immunize as many people as possible. It would help to permit the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is successfully used in the UK, and the Russian & Chinese vaccines which are administered in Italy, Chile, Argentina, Hungary, India and other countries (statista abcnews spiegel.de). Administering these vaccines to millions of people gives much more information than the studies the pharma companies conducted last year.

It also would make sense if the US changes the vaccination strategy. America follows the recommendations of the pharma companies and administers everyone 2 doses in a short time. Pfizer-BioNTech recommended giving the second dose 21 days after the first, Moderna recommended injecting the second dose 28 days after the first and AstraZeneca talked about 6 weeks. These recommendations are based on their clinical studies conducted last year. 

The US could speed up the vaccine rollout considerably if they would follow the British strategy, called "first-dose-first" (FDF). The British delay the second dose some months which allows them to vaccinate twice the number of people in a short time. 

  

 

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New findings support the British strategy. It turned out that AstraZeneca works better when the second dose is injected after three months (not just after four weeks spiegel.de). According to AstraZeneca a longer waiting time raises the efficacy by 80% (papers ). The Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer & BioNTech generates robust immunity after one dose and can be stored in ordinary freezers instead of at ultracold temperatures, according to new research and data released by the companies (marginalrevolution).  A single shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal. 

 

 

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By changing to the F-D-F strategy and using all available vaccines the US could triple the speed of vaccinations and hike the number of vaccinated persons weekly about 10 percent points, going from 26% today to 36% in a week and to 46% in two weeks. Early in May about 70% of the population could be eligible for a vaccination. This would save thousands of lives and spare many a severe illness (longcovid).

It needs time till the new vaccines kick in. For the month of April the vaccination rollout could be supported by additional measures. New York and other states allowed indoor dining where people spend hours unprotected (you can not dine with a mask on your face). I often notice groups sitting in restaurants and pubs potentially spreading the virus. Going back to strictly outdoor dining wouldn`t be too challenging (my wife and I are practising it weekly since last summer).

 

 

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Great Britain avoids the third wave we can see in Germany, France and other European countries thanks to a fast vaccination in combination with lockdowns. The US could do the same and save many lives. A fast vaccination also would allow to reopen the economy completely in May.