Economics: Is China A Paradise For Liberals?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - China`s economic policy gets a lot headline these days. The government announced a huge economic stimulus program to revitalize the sluggish economy. Beijing "will significantly increase government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks’ capital as it pushes to revive sputtering economic growth" ( cnn). Finance Minister Lan Foan also promised that "there will be more “counter-cyclical measures” this year".

Obviously China´s rulers believe that they are responsible for the course of the economy and they try to control it. China´s economic policy resembles the politics of America´s Liberals who attend to steer the economy since Roosevelt`s New Deal. Both are taking recipes out of the playbooks by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. The so-called Keynesians recommend to rekindle a weak economy by more government spending. They advise that the government takes more loans and pumps the money into the economy, known as deficit spending. The announced Chinese "subsidies to people with low income" resembles also the program of America`s Liberals who want to support the "poor".

And America´s Liberals have more in common with China`s leader Xi Jinping. They want to expand the size and scope of the government massively and decide how large corporations do their business. Since Xi Jinping is the absolute ruler in China his administration intensified the grip on the economy. In 2021 began an ideological crusade against China´s Big Tech companies and their alleged "monopoly power". Beijing claimed that Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and other big Tech companies behave "antisocial" and abuse their huge power at the expense of their competitors and the society. China’s market regulator released anti-monopoly guidelines that target internet platforms, tightening already existing restrictions faced by the country’s tech giants ( cnbc.). The authorities hit Alibaba, China`s Amazon, with a $2.8 billion fine, claiming the company behaves as a monopoly (what ever that means in Communist China). Beijing also forced Tencent, operator of the  hyper-popular messaging platform WeChat, to suspend all new user registrations temporary. Later the government restricted businesses of online food deliverer Meituan and ride-hailing firm Didi. They also turned Gotu and other booming online education firms into nonprofits and castrated their business models.

America`s Liberals are trying the same. They are using two powerful US administrations, the Federal Trade Commission(FTC) and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division (DOJ), to tighten the government´s grip on business. FTC & DOJ were originally established to practice antitrust, meaning to protect customers against monopolies & cartels. For a long time antitrust enforcement stood for the interests of the consumers   and tried to punish corporations for bad services, low quality & variety and too high prices (consumer welfare).   

Today FTC & DOJ are lead by two progressives: Lina Khan (FTC) and Jonathan Kanter (DOJ). Both belong to the Neo-Brandeisians (after Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, 1916-1939), a left-wing group, which is supported by powerful Liberal politicians like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Wu and others. 

The Neo-Brandeisians are now in control of the FTC & the DOJ and are working on a fundamental change of America´s economic structure and try to expand the role of the government in the U.S. economy significantly ( pbwt.com dailyjournal promarket reason).  

Since Lina Khan leads the FTC the authority represents a Marxist ideology, explained former FTC-Commissioner & Khan colleague Christine S. Wilson (ftc.gov ). Kahn & Co.try to replace the market process of supply and demand by a continuously regulated environment. FTC chair Khan  argued - in an article for a Marxist paper - that antitrust must be reconfigured toward the redistribution of economic and political power and away from concerns regarding price (lpeproject  realclearpolicy). FTC commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, a Khan supporter, demands that “antitrust should be used to accomplish political and social goals including racial equity” ( thecentersquare  crowell).  

The FTC majority views large companies as evil and prefers "that the government, rather than the private sector, orchestrates the functioning of the economy" wrote former FTC-commissioner Christine S. Wilson  ( .ftc.gov). That is exactly what Xi does in China.

FTC & DOJ already started to sue Amazon, Apple, Meta & Google and other corporations. The mighty authorities claim that these companies are monopolies even though they are already struggling with rising competition (driveby1 driveby2). Kanter´s DOJ is already talking about dismantling Google, a reminder of Xi´s attack on Alibaba & Tencent. The purpose of these law suits is to gain control over America´s largest corporations and to be in charge of their business, like Xi does in China.

But there is one big difference between China and the US: America has courts. While Xi can curtail any corporation as he wishes, Americas regulators have to deal with courts & judges. So far the courts have curtailed the regulatory overreach. FTC & DoJ lost most of their cases and the law suits against Amazon & Google have a long way to go.

China must be a paradise for the Liberals.

Photography: Manhattan`s Billboards 2024

 (Drivebycuriosity) - I am fascinated by New York City, where I live since 2012. The metropolis is full of life. I am impressed by the sheer size of the city and her buildings. Part of the fascination are the huge billboards you can spot all over Manhattan. In the past I posted some image collections ( here  here  here).

I display here some pics I took in the recent months.

 

 

To be continued

Books: Why I have Mixed Feelings With Michel Houellebecq`s Serotonin

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Michel Houellebecq belongs to the most important contemporary authors in France, maybe he is even the most known. I enjoyed his novel "Elementary Particles", that I read decades ago, and his book "Submission", about the Islamization of France (my review ). Houellebecq`s texts are precise and analytical, he performs literary autopsies.

But I have mixed feelings with "Serotonin", his newest work. I still like his style, his precise observations and witty musings, but there is not much of a plot and I am repelled by the leading character, but that could be purpose. Houellebecq likes to provoke.

The title refers to a hormone that lifts the mood, it`s absence causes depressions. The novel is written in first person, told by a 40 something man, educated and intelligent, but self loading, depressive and a misogynist. The protagonist laments about his flubbed live and his ruined partnerships and wallows in self-pity. Hard to read.  

But there are also some really strong parts. Houellebec is a master in describing complex political & economic situation. Being educated as an economist I enjoyed Houellebecq`s musings about the "complex and diverse" European & French agricultural politics. The protagonist was in his past employed at the French Ministery of Agriculture and had to write notes for his superiors "to define, sustain and represent the positions of French Agriculture". 

France had way too many small farmers, who´s meager income depends on selling milk, wheat and such. Unfortunately the farms in oversee, like the US and Argentina, are much much bigger and so much more efficient. Therefore farmers in oversea flooded European markets with very cheap products and threatened to drive the European farmers out of business. The European agencies tried to protect them by blocking agrarian imports with tariffs and quotas. But that protectionism harmed European consumers, who had to pay too much for agrarian goods, and there are much more consumers than farmers. The European protectionism risked also to start a trade war and the exporting nations could retaliate by blocking European exports of cars, machines and so on. Houllebecq dedicates a large part of the novel on the complex conflict and the suffering of the French farmers and seems to take part.

 

                Pleasure To Everyone

Some parts are just brilliantly written and justify Houlebecq`s fame. For instance: "The whole point of bureaucracy is to reduce the possibility of your life to the greatest possible degree, when it doesn`t simply succeed in destroying them; from the bureaucratic point of view, a good citizen is a dead citizen".

He also wrote: "A whore doesn`t choose her customers - that`s the point, that`s the axiom - she gives pleasure to everyone, without distinction,and that´s how she attains greatness". 

Being a lover of lush tropical forests I disagree with the following paragraph, but I find his style fascinating: 

"This forest was badly kept - the density of vines and parasitic plants was too great and must have hindered the growth of the trees; it is wrong to imagine that nature left to its own devices produces splendid plantations  with powerfully well-proportioned trees, plantations that people have compared to cathedrals, and have also prompted religious emotions of a pantheistic kind; nature left to its own devices generally produces nothing but a shapeless and chaotic mess, made up of various plants".   

There were many more smart observations & musings, for instance about General Franco`s influence on the Spanish hotel industry, animal torture in chicken farms, the appropriate way to perform blowjobs, the phenomena of shore fishing, the beauty of Deep Purple´s "Child in Time live in Duisburg", outlandish and very obnoxious gang-bangs and so on and on. His sexual descriptions are very graphic and not always tasteful. But as I said, he likes to provoke

So I indulged into some parts of the book, while I skimmed others. "Serotonin" maybe not the best introduction into Houellebecq`s work - I would prefer "Elementary Particles" or "Submission", but it is better than the average of books I read in the recent years.

 

Art Market: Arshile Gorky @ Hauser & Wirth New York

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The Armenian painter Arshile Gorky belonged to the pioneers of modern art & abstract art. Gallery Hauser & Wirth on Manhattan´s on Manhattan´s Wooster Street (Soho) displays some of his works ( hauserwirth). The show is called "Arshile Gorky, New York City" and refers to the time when the artist immigrated to the US and settled in New York.

 

On top this post you can see "Image in Khorkom" followed by "Untitled (Still Life on Table)".

Above follow "Untitled (Painting)"; "Untitled (Virginia Summer" & "Untitled (Carnival)".

 

To be continued.

Science Fiction: The Three Body Problem Vol. 3 III: Death´s End By Cixin Liu

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - We live in an infinite cosmos, surrounded by countless stars. But so far we did not discover signs of intelligent life apart from out planet (Fermi Paradox ). Cixin Liu speculates about the reasons in his trilogy "Remembrance of Earth". The series starts with the Nebula awarded "Three Body Problem", followed by "The Dark Forrest". This post is about Vol. 3, called "Deaths End" (amazon ).

The author narrates how the cosmos could be controlled by civilizations, that are most older and therefore much more advanced as humankind. These cosmic super powers command about technologies which are far beyond our understanding. Liu bases his tale on cutting edge sciences and uses cosmology, evolution, particle physics, string theory, quantum mechanics, but also game theory, Western & Eastern philosophies and theories of warfare. The complex novels read like Stephen Hawkins turned into an action thriller.

Liu is a pessimist and draws a sinister picture of the universe, the cosmic power games but also about human kind. Most of the leading characters behave against the interests of the fellow humans, starting with the person who invited an alien power to invite the earth and opened the way for the following disasters. These destructive characters get worse and even more irrational, but also more powerful and they are increasingly leading the developments of Vol. 2 and Vol. 3 - reminding me of Kafka`s sinister novels.

The trilogy is the proof that Liu belongs to the leading voices in contemporary literature. Liu deserves the Nobel Award. 

 

Economics: Why Inflation Continues To Cool

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Today we learned that the US inflation rate sank to 2.4%, continuing the retreat of the recent months ( inflation). I did expect that.

 

                         Helicopter Money

As I wrote in so many blog posts: The high inflation of the recent years was caused by a deluge of money in the years 2020 & 2021, when the Biden administration flooded the economy with stimulus cheques in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The Federal Reserve financed the government cheques by massive bond purchases (Quantitative Easing known as QE1, QE2 & QE3).  

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money supply M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ).

 

  ( source )

( source)

 

As a result in the years 2020 & 2021 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped  40%. The money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - because of Covid19. "Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods and services", taught Milton Friedman.

                        Causal connection

The causal connection between money and inflation is known since the 16th century at least! Nicolaus Copernicus described already in the year 1522 how "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: 

Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where is was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, meeting a restrained supply of goods (agriculture, hand works) &  services. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) described already in the 1960s how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 

                      The Pull Of The Money 

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately. 

Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will continue to cool.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Books: Wolf Hall By Hilary Mantel

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - England in the begin of the 16th century was a horrible place, ruled by a ruthless & sophomoric king - and lives were cheap. Hilary Mantel´s novel Wolf Hall - the first part of a trilogy - is set in these times and fictionalizes the rise of Thomas Cromwell ( amazon). 

Cromwell, being the son of a blacksmith & brewer, was considered as a lowbirth in the world of aristocrats, but he was smart, eloquent, well read & traveled and he made himself useful for the mighty. Today we would call him a lawyer, economist, administrator & counselor. Mantel seems to like Cromwell´s character - and how he dealt with his family and those who depended on him - and casts some flashlights on his steep advance in the world of high born gentlemen and the reader gets an impression how Cromwell became the favorite of Henry VIII - against all odds. Mantel`s Cromwell even expressed solidarity with those who fell into disgrace, without regard to his own person.

Some chapters focus on Austin Friars, a former monastery, that Cromwell owned and had turned into flourishing enclave, almost a little paradise, where - under his custody - people got educated and learned gardening, growing fruit, cooking and many other basic skills, but also self-defense. Cromwell`s people there were protected from the random dangers of 16th century England and the place become a shelter for some to protect them from the fanatic hunters of heretics. "At Austin Friars, there is little chance to be alone, or alone with just one person. Every letter of the alphabet watches you. In the countinghouse there is young Thomas Avery, whom you are training up to take a gripe on your private finance............Down in the kitchen .., the garzoni are learning to make spiced wafers. The process involves a good eye, exaxct timing and a steady hand. There are so many points at which it can go wrong". 

Large parts of the novel describe at length Henry`s juvenile treatment of his first wife Katherine - her alleged virginity moved into the center of European politics - and the rise of the wilful & scheming Anne Boleyn, her powerful family and her supporters.

The author imagines sheer endless dialogues between Cromwell, Henry, Katherine (Henry´s first wife), the Boleyn sisters, Cardinal Wolsey, Thomas More (the fanatic hunter of heretics), dukes, ambassadors and many other more or less important persons. These conversations are sharp, witty, entertaining and plausible. Maybe they are written for TV but they give an impression how politics might have worked on England´s court in the 16th century. 

I learned a lot about the power plays between Henry, the almost almighty Pope, the Emperor (of the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation) and the Kings of Spain & France. Mantel also elaborates the foaming violent conflicts between the ruling Roman Catholic Church and the followers of Martin Luther and other reformers and how Henry curtailed the Church in England. 

I also learned about the economics of the Renaissance: "The world is not run from where he thinks. Not from his border fortresses, not even from Whitehall. The world is run from Antwerp, from Florence, from places he has never imagined, from Lisbon, from where the ships with sail of silk drift west and are burned in the sun. Not from the castle walls, but from counting houses, not by the call of the bugle but by the click of the abacus, not by the grate and click of the mechanism of the gun but by the scrape of the pen on the page of the promissory note that pays for the gun and the gunsmith and the powder and the shot".

Mantel introduces the readers into the complexity of warfare: "The thing people don´t understand about an army is it great unpunctuated wastes of inaction: you have to scavenge for food, you are camped out somewhere with a rising water level because your mad capitaine says so, you are shifted abruptly in the middle of the night into some indefensible position, so you never sleep, so you never sleep, your equipment is defective, the gunners keep causing small unwanted explosions, the crossbowmen are either drunk or praying, the arrows are ordered up but not here yest, and your whole mind is occupied by a seething anxiety that things are going to go badly because il principe, or whatever little worshipfulness is in charge today is not very good at the basic of business of thinking".

She adds: "No ruler in the history of the world has ever been able to afford a war.....You enter into one and is uses up all the money you´ve got, and then it breaks you and bankrupts you".

It is pleasure to read her atmospheric descriptions of London; Henry´s court and everyday life in England. "If you were born in Putney, you saw the river every day, and imagined it widening out to the sea. Even if you had never seen the ocean you had a picture of it in your head from what you had been told by foreign people who sometimes came upriver. You knew that one day you would go out into a world of marble pavements and peacocks, of hillsides buzzing with heat, the fragrance of crushed herbs rising around you as you walked. You planned for what your journeys would bring you: the touch of warm terra-cotta, the night sky of another climate, alien flowers, the stone-eyed gaze of other people`s saints". 

But some parts of the book were very tough to read. Mantell describes painstakingly the burning of the alleged heretics; and how the mob indulged into the awful spectacle and celebrated the brutal killing. She also confronts the reader with the details of the torture and the bexecution of the unfortunate.

I am looking forward to the next book of this series.

Contemporary Art: Tableaux Rosa @ Lyles & King New York

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  Gallery Lyles & King in Manhattan´s Chinatown belongs to my favorite art places ( lylesandking). I have spotted so many amazing exhibitions there. Recently I posted about the show "Between the Lines" ( driveby). This post is about an exhibition called "Tableaux Rosa", with paintings by Regina Parr.

On top of this post you can see "Salome’s navel" (2024, Oil on Arches paper on Aluminum, 60 x 45 inches, 152.4 x 114.3 cm) followed by "Venus intoxicating Mars with nectar" (2024, Oil on Arches paper on Aluminum, 40 x 30 inches, 101.6 x 76.2 cm).

 

Above follow "I am the youngest of the Bacchantes, (2024) & "Queen of Swords" (2024).

 

Above you can see "But I to you offer a white goat and I will pour wine over" (2024, Oil on Arches paper on Aluminum) plus a detail shot.

As a bonus I add below images from another show at Lyles & King by Kate Meissner. 

 

To be continued