Economics: In Praise Of Remote Work

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - During Covid many employees fled their offices and started working at home. Now Elon Musk, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and many other corporation leaders demand that their employees come back to the company offices. No more working at home?

Musk, Jassy & Co. claim that remote workers are distracted. According to them working at company offices is more productive than remote. I disagree. I used to work at home over around 15 years; working as free lance journalist for magazines, newspapers & and an online service and wrote articles about financial markets and the economy. 

I enjoyed working at home. The privacy, the quietness and being in my own environment stimulated me and  raised my productivity. Since my income depended on the quantity & quality of my work, I had to be productive. If employers pay their employees for the quality & quantity of their work and for reliability and timely, they need not to worry about productivity.

Before I was a free lancer I worked many years in offices. There was always plenty of distraction. There was always something going on and a lot of commotion. There was a lot talk that was not necessarily work related. Ant there were plenty of attractive females I could not totally ignore. At home, there was just the computer that was waiting for my texts. And I had my deadlines. So I was more productive at home than in the offices I worked before,

I understand that an assembly worker at Ford cannot do this from home. But I think it is different for office workers who need just a computer for fulfilling their tasks. Modern technology - including smart phones, fast computers, advanced software, sophisticated apps - diminish the difference between working at home and in a corporation office. 

I think the campaign against working at home is just silly. Are the superiors and organizers too lazy and too incompetent to deal with their employees, to motivate them and to measure their output? Setting deadlines is more efficient than constantly look over the shoulders of the employees.

                     Supporting environment &  

The back-to-office supporters complain that office buildings are empty. So what? There might be better uses for these buildings. The employers could cancel their leases and save tons of money or - if they are the owners - they would release frozen capital and use it for better investments. Office rooms could be transformed into flats. Turning offices into homes would reduce many problems.

 

 ( source)

Home offices are good for the environment and are slowing the greenhouse effect because there would be less traffic, fewer traffic jams and fewer green house gases.

Working at home is a win win situation.

Science Fiction: Why 43 Seconds: A Hayden's World Short Story Is A Waste Of Time & Money

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Amazon´s Kindle is a wonderful machine. The device allows to discover, explore and to check unknown authors. Recently a scifi short story appeared on my radar: "43 Seconds: A Hayden's World Hard Science Fiction Short Story" by S.D. Falchetti (amazon ). Since the publication is short and offered for just 99 cents I gave it try.

Apparently the plot caters young adults and the author wants to entertain juveniles with some futurist tales. It reminds me a bit of the movie "Top Gun", but it is set in outer space. There exists a rocket that somehow can reach about 99 percent of light speed in just seconds, which allows the pilots to reach distant stars in just some days. The author doesn´t bother to offer any explanation for this sudden speed jump. He also ignores that even a much much slower acceleration would squeeze any living organism to death.

The story looks like written by a college kid who expands his allowances by publishing funny stories. But even though the publication is very short & cheap, it is a waste of time & money. And unfortunately it gives science fiction a bad name and may even deter potential readers of science fiction. I recommend to start with Arthur C. Clarke (my review ) and Isaac Asimov ( review).  

Contemporary Art: Echo Chamber - A Group Exhibition @ The Hole New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Manhattan`s Bowery is a tourist attraction with sheer countless pubs & restaurants. But there is at least one ambitious art gallery - The Hole (thehole ). I already posted several reports about their shows.

Recently I spotted a group exhibition, called "Echo Chamber", curated by Leslie Weismann & Charlotte Hailstone. I display here my favorites, a very subjective selection as usual.

On top of this post you can see "Bad Blood" by Alexandra Rubinstein (2025, pig blood on raw canvas) followed by Lizzy Lunday´s "Sea Warp" (2024, oil and acrylic on canvas) & 2 images by Maya Mason "North by Northwest" & "Interior Life" (2023 & 2025, both oil on canvas). 

 

Above you can see Angela Fraleigh`s psychedelic "I want you wild" (2025, oil, acrylic, moon water, amethyst, suglite, tiger`s eye on. dibond pane).

 

Charlotte Hailstone`s (I like the name) painting reminds me of Escher. The image is called "Like Crazy" (2025, acrylic on canvas).

 

 

Enjoy!

Economics: A Strong Headwind Against Inflation

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Pundits claim that the inflation rate will continue climbing. According to the University of Michigan the US inflation expectations rose to 3.3% (stlouisfed ). I beg to differ.

 

                          Helicopter Money

There is a strong headwind: The slowing monetary growth (image above x.com ). In January the money supply M2 grew 3.9%. The relatively slow monetary growth works like a brake and will cool inflation in the coming months.  

The recent high inflation was caused by a deluge of money in the years 2020 & 2021. In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed with massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40%. Unfortunately the money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19. So the price level inevitably had to jump and the inflation rate (first derivation) went up.

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately. Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will stay low. 

 

 (source )

                         Causal Relationship

The causal relationship between the money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus! The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where it was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, but the supply of goods & services did not change much. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Copernicus`findings lead to quantity theory of money. The theory is represented by the basic formula M X V = Q X P, meaning M (money) multiplied with V (the velocity of money) = Q (available goods & services) multiplied with P (price level). The dynamical version today means M (growth rate of money supply) X V = Q (real GDP) X P (inflation rate). Since the real GDP (Q) does not change much, a sudden jump of the monetary growth rate (M) leads to a rise of the inflation rate (P). 

 

( source)

                       

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) confirmed Copernicus & their quantity theory of money. They described in the 1960s elaborately how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 ( source)

Those who ignore the strong head wind from the slow monetary growth are economic illiterate & ignorant of history as well.

 

Architecture: The Brutalist Is Everywhere

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot furor about the movie "The Brutalist" ( imdb). But brutalist architecture is more common than Hollywood wants you to believe. Here I present some brutalist constructions I spotted on my travels.

On top of this post an image from Salt Lake City, followed by shots from Denver

 

Above follows Rome

 

Then follow Panama City & Vancouver

Above brutalist London 

Followed by Mexico City

 

and last but not least Bangkok

Enjoy!

World Peace & Sanity: Fuck Ukraine and European Union, Von der Leyen plus Kanzler wannabe Merz

 (Drivebycuriosity) - In order to get back peace & sanity: Fuck Ukraine and the war mongers European Union, Von der Leyen plus Kanzler wannabe Merz

Science Fiction: Ninefox Gambit By Yoon Ha Lee

(Drivebycuriosity) - Yoon Ha Lee belongs to the stars of contemporary science fiction. The Korean-American author, a trans man, majored in mathematics, and earned a master's degree in secondary mathematics education at Stanford University. He has worked as an analyst for an energy market intelligence company, done web design, and taught mathematics (wikipedia ). This background shows in his/her works.

Ha Lee`s debut novel, Ninefox Gambit, the first volume of the Machineries of Empire trilogy, received the 2017 Locus Award for Best First Novel (amazon ). It was also nominated for the 2016 Nebula and Hugo Awards for Best Novel and the 2017 Clarke award ( wikipedia).

I have mixed feeling with the book. Even though it shows Ha Lee`s love of mathematics, I missed logic. The plot, if there is any, reminds me of the surreal plays by Eugène Ionesco and similar authors, and I couldn´t detect any sense. 

Otherwise I enjoyed the the deluge of funny ideas & & aphorism: 

"Immorality was like sex: it made idiots of otherwise rational people". 

Many paragraphs read like futurist poetry: 

"The room was decorated with vases filled with the bones of small animals wired into the shapes of flowers"

"She kept expecting the world to change around her in response to the calendrical rot: for the walls to run like water, the light to shiver into turbulent colors, the sounds of human voices to shred into the cries of migrating birds".

"He became fascinated by the objects people kept in their homes. Musical instruments that could have doubled as Vidona torture implements, especially the ones with the hungry wires. Floating globes that imitated pleasing weather patterns on green or purple planets". 

"The gate was made of material condensed from a certain dying star" 

Anyway, I prefer Ha Lee´s short stories, especially "Counting Casualties" (published a Kindle book my review ) and "Beyond the Dragons Gate" (review ).
 

Economics: Why We Need Self-Driving Cars

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Car insurances are getting much more expensive these days. The average rate jumped 31% y-o-y ( bankrate). The rise is mainly caused by the climbing number of accidents. Car crashes are very often caused by human failure, like speeding, alcohol abuse, falling asleep, texting & driving, phone calls or other distractions ( source).

But there is a remedy - self-driving cars. Computers have a much shorter response time than humans. They don`t drink and drive, they don´t text while driving. Robots don`t drive aggressively, they don´t take drugs, they aren´t distracted, they don`t feel the need to impress by speedy driving. Self-driving cars do not engage in car races, they don´t do suicide by driving, they don´t fall asleep while driving and they adapt their speed to the traffic situation. They behave strictly rational.

Computers don´t make mistakes and they don´t behave unlawful. A computer needs just a nanosecond to respond to a surprising event (like a child on the street), much faster than a human brain. And with the assistance of sensors the computer can respond to the traffic situation (hydroplaning, ice, potholes) much better than a human driver. As a result self-driving cars have much fewer accident than vehicles driven by human.

Fewer accidents mean less lost lives and save a lot of costs for the economy. They will also translate into lower insurance costs, so driving will get cheaper which also will reduce the costs for Uber, Lyft and taxi rides. 

Self-driving cars are also more efficient, because computers can calculate the optimum speed, track and driving rhythm. Therefore they use less energy to move from place A to place B. Self-driving cars will burn less gasoline which reduces the consumption of fossilized energy and create less exhaust, dampening the greenhouse effect.

Welcome to self-driving cars.

 

Science Fiction: All You Zombies— Five Classic Stories By Robert A. Heinlein

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Robert Heinlein belonged to the ring of masters who developed the science fiction genre (Asimov, Clark, Frederic Pohl wikipedia). Like his colleagues he speculated about the future by appreciating scientific possibilities (hard science fiction).

 His short story "And he built a crooked house" shows what science fiction can do. The plot is based on mathematics and blends the weirdness of quantum physics with cosmology and ancient Hindu mythology about time & infinity. Apparently the basic idea inspired Ted Chiang ("Tower of Babylon") and other writers. 

The story is part of the small collection "All You Zombies— Five Classic Stories" (89 pages amazon). The name giving short story does not contain zombies, but narrates about the paradoxes of time travel and blends it with different topics like sex change, terrorism, paranoia and much more. The weird plot reminds me more of Philllip K Dick than of the Heinlein`s typical engineer tales ("The Moon is a Harsh Mistress")

The collection also contains a horror story, untypical for Heinlein as well.

"Crooked House" alone is worth to get the collection, that - in the moment of writing - is priced with $4.50.

Books: King Of Fools By Frederic Dard

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The french author Frederic Dard belongs to my favorite writers. His crime mysteries - set in Europa in the 1950s - are short, crispy and full of twists & surprises. I especially enjoyed "Bird in a Cage" & ""The Executioner Weeps" ( my reviews here    here). 

The novel "King of Fool" fits to this collection (amazon ). The novel is told in first person - as usual with Dard. The protagonist, a French man, has a surprising encounter with a beautiful English woman, while making holiday at the Cote Azure. The encounter starts a series of unexpected events (this is a spoiler free blog).

The story is heavily constructed, but entertaining. It is hard to believe how the leading characters behave, but I enjoyed following them anyway. Some parts are hilarious like scenes in a Buster Keaton movie, they are literary slapstick. And Dard´s descriptions of persons, events and cities, especially the peculiar presentation of Edinburgh and her population, are a pleasure to read.

 I plan to read more by Dard.

Economics: Is A Shrinking Population Really A Problem?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot talk about shrinking  populations. People are getting older, thanks to better medical systems and nutrition; and birthrates are falling in all developed countries. In China & Japan the population is already shrinking, Europe and even the US may follow. If we believe the Cassandras the world is doomed. I beg to differ.

First, I think a smaller population is a big win for the environment and could be the answer to global warming, another favorite subject of the doomsayers. 

Fewer people burn less energy - and they emit fewer greenhouse gases. Fewer people also eat less; therefore the incentive to destroy forests, to gain more land for farming, becomes weaker and the problem of over-fishing disappears.

A shrinking population also slows down the trend of turning forests & meadows into the sprawl: fewer people stops the trend of constructing more and more one-family houses, streets, strip malls, store houses & parking places. A shrinking population makes the world greener & cleaner!

A smaller population is also the answer to another doomster alert: "The robots are coming" And: "Automation will destroy our jobs!"  (" thehill). Both trends are mostly compensating each other: A falling demand for workers, thanks to automation, compensates a declining supply by shrinking populations.

 

Industrial Revolution 

Machines have been replacing labor for many centuries. In the middle ages wind & water mills already substituted human & animal labor. In the 18th century followed steam power, starting the industrial revolution. In the recent centuries the ongoing automation process has been raising productivity of labor considerably - and the progress has been accelerating. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is raising the productivity of labor even even further, reducing the demand for human workers even more. DeepSeek, the newest incarnation of the technological progress, is another step in the ongoing progress to more productivity. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella claims that Moore´s law is "working in hyperdrive" (finance.yahoo ).

And there is more: science is making exponential advancements in the field of robotics and artificial intelligence and will support the economy and the labor markets in the coming decades. 

      Less Work, More Income

Today even farmers are using robots, for instance for harvesting strawberries or milking cows (wikipedia). Drones are being used in warehouses and yards for inventory management. Robots also help restaurants to deal with the scarcity of labor.  

"Domino’s Pizza Inc. is putting in place equipment and technology that reduce the amount of labor that is required to produce our dough balls", reports time.com. 3D-printers are also replacing workers, even in construction. "A 3D printer can build the walls of a house in as little as two days versus weeks or months with traditional construction materials" notices today.com.  

 A study by economists John G. Fernald and Charles I. Jones from Stanford & the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco claims that "it becomes possible to replace more and more of the labor tasks with capital" (robinhanson ). Fernald & Jones define capital as physical capital (machines including robots & computers), plus human capital (knowledge & skills) plus discovery of new ideas (inventions like computer, internet etc.). According to them "artificial intelligence and machine learning could allow computers and robots to increasingly replace labor in the production function for goods", meaning that the society can produce more things without increasing hours worked or even with a shrinking labor force. As a result the growth rate of income per person and the long-run growth rate (now around 2%) will rise as well: "The possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

 

                 Universal Basic Income

Naive observers claim that a shrinking population reduces the demand for goods & services and will destroy many markets and businesses (noahpinion). These pessimists ignore that demand is the number of potential buyers multiplied with the purchasing power per capita. Thanks to the accelerating technological progress the purchasing power per capita is rising and will overcompensate the shrinking number of consumers.

We can learn from history: In England the bubonic plague (1348 Black Death ) reduced the English population by about 30%. As a result the living standard of the survivors climbed! The reduced workforce caused higher salaries and the diminished population lowered the demand for food and cut food prices ( driveby).

I reckon that technological progress leads to:

    - rising salaries (for those still working), 

    - climbing dividend incomes and stock market gains 

which will raise the purchasing power of most people - enough to compensate the shrinking number of buyers. Even those who don`t invest in the stock market may participate via pension funds and insurance investments. 

The productivity gains will finally translate into higher tax revenues for the governments (by taxing company profits, dividends & stock market gains). Some day a much greater part of goods & services will be produced by robots and other machines. Then fewer people may work than today and many things will cost less. Then the time could come for an universal basic income, paid to everybody, and financed by productivity gains delivered with automation (driveby ).
 

 

 

 

 

 

Science Fiction: Darwinia - A Novel Of A Very Different Twentieth Century

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Alternate history is fun. An author can run his fantasy without limits and change the past as much as he wants. Robert Charles Wilson`s novel Darwinia - A Novel Of A Very Different Twentieth Century displays a very spooky past (amazon ). 

In the year 1912 a weird event suddenly changed the world. The European continent, including England, disappeared. Cities & people vanished and the European civilization got replaced by an apparently untouched wilderness with strange unknown plants & animals. Soon Americans, Australians and others are resettling the European coasts, rebuilt the cities and begin to explore the strange hinterland. 

The plot splits into 3 lines and follows different protagonists in America and Europe. "Darwinia" begins like a classic adventure story, set in an exotic, almost fairy tale, environment, but becomes more and more violent and turns then into a horror thriller with paranormal elements. The plot expands into cosmology, quantum physics, Buddhist mythology and theology. 

I enjoyed the mysterious start of the novel but I found the growing violence and the expansion into mythology and crude philosophy rather challenging. Robert Charles Wilson wrote better books, including "Blind Lake" ( amazon) & "Spin" ( amazon).

Economics: Inflation - What We Could Learn From Copernicus

(Drivebycuriosity) -  There is still a lot confusion about what caused the recent inflation. Apparently the Federal Reserve and many pundits don`t understand how the economy works and ignore the importance of money. The image above shows that the recent inflation wave was caused by a deluge of money ( reuters).

The causal relationship between the money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus! The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where it was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, but the supply of goods & services did not change much. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Copernicus`findings lead to quantity theory of money. The theory is represented by the basic formula M X V = Q X P, meaning M (money) multiplied with V (the velocity of money) = Q (available goods & services) multiplied with P (price level). The dynamical version today means M (growth rate of money supply) X V = Q (real GDP) X P (inflation rate). Since the real GDP (Q) does not change much, a sudden jump of the monetary growth rate (M) leads to a rise of the inflation rate (P). 

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) confirmed Copernicus and the quantity theory of money. They described in the 1960s how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 

 (source)

                         Helicopter Money

The inflation wave of 2021 & 2022 confirms again the insights of Copernicus and the monetarists. In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed by massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).  

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40%. Unfortunately the money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19. So the price level inevitably had to jump and the inflation rate (first derivation) went up (calculus).

 

 ( source)

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately. Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will stay low.

Those who try to explain the recent inflation and ignore the role money are economic illiterate and ignorant of history.

Books: Medieval Horizons - Why The Middle Ages Matter

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The collapse of the Roman Empire destroyed Europe`s civilization and caused about 1,000 years of economical & cultural darkness, known as the Middle Ages. Betweem around 1400 through 1600 Europe`s civilization started slowly to recover, the period is known as the Renaissance ( wikipedia). The term means revival or rebirth of civilization & economy.

Ian Mortimer challenges the common view in his book: "Medieval Horizons - Why The Middle Ages Matter" ( amazon). The historian focuses on the period 1,000 to 1,600 and claims that in this time span a lot changes happened that lifted the living standard of almost everyone. Unfortunately he did not separate the Middle Ages from the Renaissance: "The way we live today is largely the result of social developments that took place between the eleventh century and the sixteenth". But Mortimer acknowledges that more changes happened closer to the year 1600, generally called the Renaissance. So, the title of the book is a misnomer.

Mortimer admits that the progress had been accelerating all the time and became much faster close to the year 1600. "What is particularly interesting is that these changes were happening so rapidly that people were conscious of how much better off they were compared to their forefathers. In 1577 (!) the clergyman William Harrison declared that oldm men in his village had noticed great improvements over the course of their lifetime". The acceleration phenomena is well known and there exists already a rich literature about accelerating advances in technology & culture (accelerationwatch ).

I have another problem with the book: Mortimer did not connect the changes and he failed to analyze them. His book is merely an itemization of historical tidbits. For instance:

"Medieval kings were almost constantly on the move. In the eleventh century, like all great lords, they had to shift between their many estates for the sustenance of their households. But monarchs also had to counter military threads".

"What ultimately restrained King`s power to go to war, was that armies were costly. As markets multiplied and money became ever more important in the thirteenth century, the ability to go to war was limited by financial constraints. In England, this means that kings had to secure a grant of extraordinary taxation by Parliament to carry on a protracted military campaign".

"At least three expeditions circumnavigated the globe in the sixteenth century. Ferdinand Magellan´s in 1519-22, Francis Drake`s in 1577-80 and Thomases Cavendish`s in 1585-8". They happened certainly late in the Renaissance, and not in the Middle Ages as Mortimer claims.

"Whereas the word "inn" is not found in English before 1000 and probably only the largest towns had an inn in the twelfth century, by 1577 there were more than 3,000 such establishments in England".

 

               What Mortimer Overlooked

Unfortunately Mortimer overlooked the innovations that really define the Renaissance and still matter (found in the book "An Empire Of Wealth - Rise Of The American Economy 1607-2000" my review ):

- the invention of the printing press in the Renaissance reduced the cost of books, and thus of knowledge. Cheap information fostered the rise of science and (early) technology,  it promoted trade and helped managing corporations.

-  the creation of full-rigged ships made long  passages across oceans possible and supported America´s immigration.

-  the initiation of double-entry booking made accounting easier and more reliable. It became much easier to detect errors and helped to invest in complicated & distant enterprises. It also helped to keep track of how these investment are doing.

- the launch of the joint-stock company, the precursor of today`s stock market listed companies,  limited the risk an individual investor had to take and made it possible to amass big sums to invest in distant places like the American colonies. New York, Virginia and the New England colonies were not founded by the English state; they were founded by profit-seeking companies.

If you are interested into Middle Ages & Renaissance you could find better books. For instance Peter Ackroyd´s "The History of England from Its Earliest Beginnings to the Tudors" (my review ).