Contemporary Art: Walton Ford´s Majestic Lions @ Kasmin New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Contemporary art is full of surprises. On our last visit of Manhattan´s art district Chelsea my wife and I happened to see an interesting art reception.  Gallery Kasmin opened their new flagship space with an exhibition of new paintings by Walton Ford (509 West 27th Street kasmingallery). The American artist is famous for his naturalist paintings. Wikipedia writes: "Each of his paintings is a meticulous, realistic study in flora and fauna, and is filled with symbols, clues, and jokes referencing texts ranging from colonial literature, to folktales, to travel guides" (wikipedia).

 

The new show focuses on Barbary Lions and is called "Barbary" (through December 22, 2018    exhibition). These majestic cats are dangerous & powerful but also beautiful. The press release explains: "The series is a result of over eighteen years of research by Ford into the iconic Barbary lion. This subspecies—the subject of a long, ongoing cultural fascination—historically ranged across the Atlas Mountains of North Africa, but has been extinct in the wild since the early 20th century after over 2000 years of persecution. The Barbary lion is the lion of the Roman amphitheater, the lion painted by Delacroix, and the lion that roars for the Hollywood film studio MGM".

Being an ambitious amateur photographer I took some picture from the show and the lions.  This post opens with Fords`s "Leipzig 20 Oktober 1913" (2018, watercolor, gouache, and ink on paper, 60 1/8 x 119 1/4 inches, 152.7 x 302.9 cm). The large painting refers to an incident in the Eastern German city Leibzig in 1913 when nine lions had escaped from the zoo which started a frantic lion hunt.

 

The audience was as interesting as the big cats. These people are admiring images tagged M V N E R, which relates to the gladiator fights in Rome´s Colosseum where these Barbary Lions where involved.

 

Apparently another reference to history.

 

Above a detail shot.

 

To be continued

Books: Priceless By Zygmunt Miloszewski

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Do you love art? Do you enjoy well constructed thrillers? Then you might like the novel "Priceless" by Zygmunt Miloszewski (amazon). The Polish author belongs to my favorite writers. I had relished his crime drama trilogy about prosecutor Teodor Szacki (here are my reviews rage entanglement truth ).

"Priceless" is very different. Here four people, 3 Polish, one Swedish, get the order to retrieve a Lucas Cranach painting, which was stolen in Second World War from a Polish museum and is now supposedly hidden in the US. The quest leads to dramatic events in the US, Sweden and in Poland and finally to a severe political discovery (this is a spoiler free blog). 

The novel is an action thriller, a dip into the world of art and alternate history.  Miloszewski touches issues like art theft, terrorism, Word War II, the NATO, American diplomacy and more. I learned a lot about Renaissance paintings & French Impressionists, but I also got entertained. The author can really write and he blends an idiosyncratic plot with skillful elaborated action scenes. His descriptions of advanced security technology, landscapes, blizzards, Polish ski resorts, cable cars & architecture are masterpieces.  

Again I enjoyed the elaborate & pivoting (sorry the German word "fintenreich" does not exist in English) plot which reminded me of the British classics (Graham Greene, Evelyn Waugh), in combination with psychological insights & sarcastic remarks about international politics, sex, history, architecture & more. 

I want to read more by him. Recommended!

Contemporary Art: Knights In Shiny Armor & More @ Sperone Westwater Gallery, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - New York`s Lower East Side was once the slum of the metropolis, filled with sweat shops; now the neighborhood is one of the fanciest districts of the metropolis and a symbol for gentrification. A legion of bars, pubs & restaurants and flocks of drunk college kids gave LES the image of a party mile.

But the LES also has an artsy and attractive side: More than one hundred art galleries choose to be in this area - thanks to more affordable rents. In the recent years LES became a contender to Chelsea where usually the big classy art dealers reside. The Sperone Westwater Gallery on the Bowery belongs to the ambitious LES galleries (speronewestwater ).

 They show now paintings by Malcom Morley (throughOctober 27, 2018 ). I display here my favorites from this exhibition, a very subjective selection as usual. Above you can see his §The Ultimate Anxiety" (1978) and some detail shots. I like the strong colors and the combination of a classical style (like a Renaissance painting) with 20th century expressionism. The Press Release says, the painting "brings a distinctly surrealist twist to a traditional Venetian scene, which is interrupted by a freight train that seems to barrel across the surface of the canvas itself."

I also enjoy the knight riding dynamically along a storm front.

The artist´s version of the Trojan Horse is also worth a look.

Above more of Morley´s beloved knights in shiny armor.

and he indulged into old battle air planes.

To be continued

Economics: Is Oil Eating The Economy?

(Drivebycuriosity) - Yesterday we learned that salaries in the US climbed 2.8%. Unfortunately the US inflation rate is 2.7%. So, inflation is eating most of the salary gains. Inflation is driven by climbing oil prices, rents & health costs. Brent Crude, the gauge for the global oil market, jumped 51% in the recent 12 months and the rising oil price translates into climbing cost for gasoline (plus 16% aaa.com).

Rising expenses for energy are sucking billions of Dollars out of the economy and are slowing economic growth. Consumers, who have to spend more on the gas pumps, have less money for other goods & services. Climbing cost for transportation are raising the cost of almost everything you can find in a shop, pushing even the core inflation (excluding food and energy) higher and reducing consumer spending, the engine of the economy, further.




                                             Beware Of The Snowball Effect

It could get worse if the oil rally continues. The recent oil price rally is driven by speculation. Hedge funds and other speculators are betting on oil supply disruptions thanks to the Iran sanctions, the crisis in Venezuela and other issues. There is the risk that the oil price rally gets out of control - as in 2007/2008 when the price of oil trippled. Rising oil prices attract more speculative buyers - the momentum players - who are betting on further price gains. This herd behavior is driving prices even higher - a self-fulfilling prophecy. The process can escalate and create a snow ball effect - rising oil prices cause further price rises - till the system implodes.

Unfortunately the US economy responds very sensitive to oil price jumps. Nine out of ten of the U.S. recessions since World War II were preceded by a spike up in oil prices, writes Prof. James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego ( pdf econweb). Another study by Prof.  Hamilton shows that the oil price shock from 2008 - from summer 2007 through July 2008 the oil price spiraled from about $50 to $147 -  turned the economic slowdown into a severe recession (econbrowser).: "The oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 should be regarded as a key development that turned the slowdown in growth into a recession" (archives).

Other researchers came to the same results: "Oil prices played a role in eventually bursting the US subprime bubble....In 2003, the average suburban household spent $1,422 a year on gasoline, which rose to $3,196 in 2008 (oilprice). "Rising household energy prices constrained household budgets and increased mortgage delinquency rates" (oilprice). Low income suburban homeowners suffered most from the rising gas prices.  Poor homeowners are called "subprime" and their delinquencies are known as "subprime crisis."

But there is also hope. Fortunately the US oil production is rising  - thanks to fracking. Climbing oil prices make more oil wells profitable - and also more offshore drilling -  which could lead to an over-supply of oil and the bubble may pop again - as it did in 2014. Time will tell.

Stock Market: Should We Be Afraid Of Climbing Interest Rates?

(Drivebycuriosity) - Interest rates are rising again. Today the 10-year bond yield pushed above 3.21% for the first time in seven years. As usual stock prices started to fall. The market follows a simple  model: Stock prices (value of the company) reflect the sum of the expected company dividends in the future. But a dollar tomorrow is worth less today. Therefore the market discounts future dividends with an interest rate. Assumed that company X pays a yearly dividend of $100 and the interest rate is 5%, than the present value of the 2019 dividend is $95, of the 2020 dividend is $90,25, of the 2021 dividend is $85,73 and so on. If the interest rates rises to 6% then present values drop to $94,  $88.36, $83,05 and so on. The higher the interest rates, the lower are the present values of the dividends, which define the value of the company.

Higher interest rates imply a bigger discount, meaning a lower stock price, if everything is equal. This is the ceteris paribus analyses (Latin for: with other conditions remaining the same) that every student of economics learns in the first term. But we don´t live in a ceteris paribus world. Instead everything is changing.

History shows that stock prices & interest rates can happily rise together: The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (finance) notices that “the 1950s was a period of higher stock prices and higher US interest rates. The US 10-year yield bottomed near 1.5% in late 1945 and the S&P 500 remained firmly within its secular bull market until yields moved to 5-6% in the mid 1960s. The S&P 500 rallied 460% over this period.”

Interest rates are rising because the US is growing strongly again. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta calculates that the US economy grew 4.1% in the third quarter (frbatlanta). The market had underestimated the growth of the global economy which lead to extremely low interest rates. Interest rates were close to zero because the US economy was almost stagnating and many speculated on a crash of the Chinese economy.  Now the mood is changing and interest rates are responding to the revitalization of the US economy. Higher growth rates are already translating into faster rising corporate earnings and dividends. Company earnings/dividends are also getting tailwinds from the technological progress which creates new markets and raises efficiency & productivity. Therefore the profit gains & dividend hikes will overcompensate the negative effect of the rising interest rates and the stock market rally should continue.

TV: Binge Watching Tin Star

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - In the recent days I have been binge watching "Tin Star", an Amazon Original Series  (imdb). Jim, a former English cop,  got a job as a chief police officer in a remote mountain region in Western Canada, populated by bikers & oil workers. He and his family are haunted by the past (this is a spoiler free blog).

"Tin Star" is the strongest Amazon series I have seen so far. It seems that Amazon is closing the gap with HBO qualities. The series is a dark crime drama, very violent & bloody and not afraid of nudity (like HBO`s "True Detective"). It reminds me of Greek dramas, where people are driven by a mean-spirited fate. The plot is spiked with nasty surprises, sometimes absurd & shocking and touches issues like dysfunctional families, alcoholism, politics of oil companies, the role of America´s natives and more. Even even though there are many vicious scenes "Tin Star" is often decent and subtle.

The camera focuses often on Tim Roth, who incarnates Jim, a fascinating character - smart but alcoholic & impulsive. Oliver Coopersmith impresses as well, as "Whitey", a young man with a sinister mission. Christopher Heyerdahl convinces as the scary chief of security for the oil company, which apparently rules the town. Christina Hendricks  plays the public relation manager for the same company. Her character is smart & businesslike and is refreshingly different from her famous role in "Mad Men".  I also enjoyed Genevieve O'Reilly, being the strong & beautiful wife of Jim.

 

Dale McCready & Paul Sarossy, the cinematographers, also did a good job.  They captured the amazing Canadian mountain landscape in beautiful pictures. Even though I don´t like cold, I want to go there.  And they visualized the whole story like an art movie.

I hope Amazon will deliver more series of this kind. Recommended!

Economics: Do We Approach The Next Oil Crisis?

(Drivebycuriosity) - Oil prices are on a tear again. Brent Crude, the gauge for the global oil market, climbed 50% in the recent 12 months and  tripled since early 2016 (brent). The new oil price spike is scary and reminds me of the oil price jump in 2007/08 (charts below). A study by Prof.  Hamilton, University of California, San Diego, shows that the oil price shock from 2008 - from summer 2007 through July 2008 the oil price spiraled from about $50 to $147 -  turned the economic slowdown into a severe recession (econbrowser).: "The oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 should be regarded as a key development that turned the slowdown in growth into a recession" (archives).

Other researchers came to the same results: "Oil prices played a role in eventually bursting the US subprime bubble....In 2003, the average suburban household spent $1,422 a year on gasoline, which rose to $3,196 in 2008 (oilprice). "Rising household energy prices constrained household budgets and increased mortgage delinquency rates" (oilprice). Low income suburban homeowners suffered most from the rising gas prices. 

Oil price hikes also caused recessions in the 1970s - the oil or energy crisis - and in the year 1990. Nine out of ten of the U.S. recessions since World War II were preceded by a spike up in oil prices, writes Prof. Hamilton ( pdf econweb).

The new oil price rally is driven by speculation. Hedge funds and other speculators are betting on oil supply disruptions because of the Iran sanctions, the crisis in Venezuela and other issues. There is the risk that the oil price rally gets out of control - as in 2008. Rising oil prices attract more buyers - the momentum players - who are betting on further price gains. This herd behavior is driving prices even higher - a self-fulfilling prophecy. The process can escalate and create a snow ball effect - rising oil prices cause further price rises - till the system implodes.

But there is a good chance that we could avoid this fate. Fortunately the US oil production is rising  - thanks to fracking. Climbing oil prices make more oil wells profitable - and also more offshore drilling -  which could lead to an over-supply and the bubble may pop again - as it did in 2014. Time will tell.