Economics: Are Monopolies Real?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot ado about monopolies. Since the Sherman Antitrust Act from 1890 US politicians have been fighting alleged monopolies. They claim that there exist corporations that are too big and that these are crushing competition & harming consumers. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ runs now a huge law suit against Google, a corporation that offers search, maps and other services predominantly for free. The DOJ claims that Google maintains a monopoly and they attempt to break up the corporation. Part of the intended breakup would by a forced sale of the Google Chrome Browser.

Last week Perplexity made an offer to purchase Google`s Chrome Browser for $34.5 billions ( cnbc). Who is Perplexity? Perplexity is a start up, an American privately held software company offering a web search engine that processes user queries and synthesizes responses, says wikipedia. Perplexity was founded in 2022!  

Perplexity is a nice example for companies that suddenly come out of nowhere and attack the alleged monopolies. The fact that Perplexity, that exists only for 3 years, expects to get $34.5 billions from investors shows that there is a lot of money available to enter an attractive market and to challenge the leader.

The DOJ ignores that Google, who gets most of the revenues from advertisements on their platforms, is competing against Meta and other giants and is already losing market share to Amazon`s advertising business ( realclearmarket). 

 

 

And who remembers MySpace? The company was once the leading social network and regarded as a monopolist ( theguardian). But then came Zuckerberg out of nowhere and destroyed MySpace`s "monopoly" by creating Facebook. 

When a company has success it will inspire copycats who want a share from the pie. When Jeff Bezos started Amazon in the year 1994 his company was a monopolist, but just for a very short time. Amazon`s success story animated worldwide others to offer similar services.  

Today there are thousands of companies selling online, including giants like Walmart, Target, Best Buy & Costco, who all developed large online departments, and there also exist a lot online platforms like Overstock, Shopify, Wayfair, Etsy & Ebay, who all are successfully copying Amazon.

 

                    Perpetual Struggle  

Amazon was forced to be cost conscious and to become more and more efficient in order to survive the growing attacks. "What doesn´t kill me, will make me stronger", said Nietzsche. The perpetual struggle between innovators who turn into market leaders and their copycats is called competition, the yeast of the economy. The permanent struggle raises efficiency, suppresses costs and constrains prices for the benefit of the consumers.

There exist indeed real monopolies. Only the U.S. Department of the Treasury has the right to print US bank notes, do not try it at home. And there are monopolists owned and protected by the US government, states, counties and by laws, like JFK, USPS, Port of Los Angeles or Amtrak.  

Contrary to them big corporations like Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon and others all are competing against each others and versus countless challengers. The founders of Sherman Act and today the DOJ have no idea how the economy functions, they are economic illiterate and ignorant of history.

Science Fiction: Why Tomorrow Factory By Rich Larson Is Lots Of Fun

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Rich Larson belongs to the up and coming writers in the science fiction genre. His short collection "Tomorrow Factory", published 2018, is lots of fun ( amazon). The collected 23 stories span a considerable bandwidth and are all crispy, quirky & cool. 

I have two favorites:

Innumerable Glimmering Lights" follows octopus-like intelligent beings who live in an ocean below miles of ice. One of them is ambitious and wants to find out what is beyond the ice - causing a lot of trouble. Lawson invented a plausible ecologic & social system of smart submarine beings who have their own ways to communicate - a master piece inspired by evolution, biology & chemistry. 

The Ghost Ship Anastasia: The crew of a spaceship tries to recover a very bizarre spaceship, leading to strange experiences - a horror story

 
I also enjoyed: 

"You make Pattaya": A funny con story about a farang and a local hooker set in Thailand`s sex capital 

"Circuits": An AI is piloting a train circling a wasted planet - again and again 

"Every so often": A Time travel story

"An Evening with Severyn Grimes":  A billionaire gets abducted by a group of radical terrorists. A slick near-future thriller  

"Datafall" In the past a whole village was excited when a circus came to town. In this story the population of a peninsula is excited because they get - for a very short time - access to the internet and the cloud. I remember when I got my internet access in the late 90s - what a change!   

"The Sky didn`t load today": Surreal cyper-punk 

"Atrophy": Another horror story - set in a radioactive contaminated world 

I am convinced that the rest caters many readers with different tastes. 

 

Economy: Why Doesn`t Inflation Get Hotter In Spite Of Trade War & Rising Tariffs?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot ado about President`s Trump`s trade war and the tariff hikes. Rightly so, his tariffs do a lot damage. But inflation stays tame. In July the price level rose just 2.7% y-o-y (image above cnbc ). 

Tariffs do not create inflation! They hike the prices of imported goods and goods from producers who compete with foreign producers. But other prices, like houses, dentist visits, cinema admissions and many others, are not touched. Economists talk about relative prices, contrary to the general price level.

Milton Friedman said "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". He was right. The money volume, the amount of money available in the whole economy, restricts how much people can spend. If they have to pay higher prices for imported goods, then they purchase fewer of them or they spend less for other goods & services.

The recent high inflation was caused by a deluge of money in the years 2020 & 2021. In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed with massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40%. Unfortunately the money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19. So the price level inevitably had to jump and the inflation rate (first derivation) went up.

 

                         Causal Relationship

The causal relationship between the money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus! The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where it was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, but the supply of goods & services did not change much. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) confirmed Copernicus & the quantity theory of money. They described in the 1960s elaborately how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 ( source)

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately.  

 

  

Economics: Antitrust - Why The FTC Is Obsolete & Harmful

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that the media, politicians and bureaucrats are obsessed with monopolies. In the US exist coevally two huge powerful government administrations that want to fight against the "monopoly power" of corporations: The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) & the Antitrust Division of the US Department of Justice (DOJ). The FTC alone has a staff of 1,123 employees and an annual budget of $425.7 million. Do we need it?

The image above refers to one of these alleged monopolists: MySpace ( theguardian). The company was once the leading social network and regarded as a monopolist. But then came Zuckerberg and destroyed the "monopoly" by creating Facebook. 

The fate of MySpace is typical for the destiny of monopolies; if they really exist, they are endangered. Their success and their profits attract others - inventors, investors & entrepreneurs - who want to have a share of their pie. Today all the leading technology corporations are attacked by a growing number of newcomers - often copycats - who are taking advantage of the technological progress and the advent of AI - and the big tech corporations are competing with each other.

 

                            Blind Eye

The FTC ignores these changes, the growing competition and the economics behind it. FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson announced that over the next few years U.S. businesses can expect “vigorous antitrust enforcement” ( realclearmarkets). Today there are already about a dozen FTC law suits and inquiries:

The most prominent is a law suit against Amazon, stretching over 172 pages! The FTC claims that the corporation is a monopoly and stifles emerging competition ( ftc.gov vox.com). The FTC ignores that the numbers of Amazon competitors has been rising fast. Walmart`s online business grew in Q1 2025 21% y-o-y ( cnbc ), while Amazon´s online shops advanced just 6% ( ir.aboutamazon). The FTC doesn`t take notice of the rapid rise of e-commerce sites like Shopify (revenue +27% y-o-y), Wayfair, Etsy & Ebay and has a blind eye to innovative newcomers, who are aggressively entering the highly competitive market, like TikTok`s online shop, the Chinese shopping app Temu and the online shopping platform Shein ( driveby Temu nymag). And  Amazon competes globally with Alibaba, Tencent (both China), Rakuten (Japan), MercadoLibre (Latin America) and others. Amazon is far away from being a monopoly. 

 (source )

 The FTC sued Meta (the mother of Facebook & Instagram), alleging that Facebook illegally maintains its personal social networking monopoly and imposes
anticompetitive conditions on developers, ignoring competing platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Snapchat, BlueSky, LinkedIn and TikTok.

The FTC is investigating Microsoft's cloud computing business and its investments and conduct related to AI, ignoring the competition with Amazon`s AWS and the fast growing cloud businesses of Oracle, Google, Alibaba and others. The administration previously also attempted to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

 The FTC launched an inquiry into Alphabet`s (Google)
generative AI investments and partnerships, disregarding the AI growth at Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and many others. 

Outside of the technology sector the FTC has sued Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits,  Deere & Company and sought to block Amgen's acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics plc. The administration also accused three major pharmacy benefit managers (CVS Health's Caremark, Cigna's Express Scripts, and UnitedHealth's Optum Rx) of artificially inflating insulin drug prices and hindering access to cheaper options.

Adding to this, the FTC has launched a broad inquiry into generative AI investments and partnerships involving companies like Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI and looking into potential anti-competitive practices within the cloud computing industry. Big Government!

 

                 Assuming Witchcraft?

None of the sued and inquired corporations and industries are protected from the fate of MySpace. They all are challenged by Moore´s law. The continuously falling costs for software & chips and the accelerating rise of AI opens newcomers - often with the backing of powerful hedge funds and other investors - ways to attack the stalwarts and to take their market shares. 

But the FTC does not care. The law suits and inquiries are based on arbitrary criteria - like "stifling emerging competition" - and the claim that the big corporations are abusing market power, which is "an imagined power, like witchcraft" comments Edwin Rockefeller, the author of "The Antitrust Religion" (amazon ).  

Law suits & inquiries are driven by ideology and disdain for markets, entrepreneurs & consumers. Chair Ferguson believes that the government & bureaucrats know more about how to do business than corporations. He tries to replace markets and consumer decisions by central planing. 

The real intention of the FTC bureaucrats is to gain control over America´s largest corporations and to be in charge of their business. Ferguson & Co. want to tell their CEOs what they can do and what not, how much they charge their customers and how they deal with their business partners (nationalreview ). Obviously the FTC wants to protect competitors, even those which are inefficient, which leads to less competition and will harm the consumer.

                  Sand Into Gears

Unfortunately the FTC is not only obsolete, it is also harmful. The law suits support the competitors of successful firms that want harm their rivals and take sides with firms disadvantaged by technological change.

The FTC is penalizing successful corporations and throws a lot of sand into the gears of the engines of the US economy. The FTC inquisition reduces the corporation`s ability to further innovate and is occupying their management capacities and slowing decision processes - making business more complicated and costly.  

If corporations get punished for being efficient and for keeping costs low, it will slow economic growth, raise price level and reduce living standards of low income households, who depend on purchasing cheap goods. Innovators and startups are getting discouraged when they know that strong growth will get punished.

The FTC should be shut down!  

 

 

 

Books: The Alice Behind Wonderland By Simon Winchester

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There are not many pieces of world literature that are so funny and so much pleasure to read like Lewis Carroll´s "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland", better known as  "Alice in Wonderland". Charles Lutwidge Dodgson, the real name of the author, dedicated the novel to a then six year old girl, Alice Pleasance Liddell, the daughter of the dean of Christ Church College, Oxford, where Dodgson was employed as sub-librarian & mathematics lecturer.

Simon Winchester wrote a fine little book around Dodgson, Alice, and the most famous portrait of said Alice: "The Alice behind Wonderland" (amazon ). Aged 25 Dodgson became fascinated with photography, then a flegdling art. He took a lot effort to become a master in the new medium and gained popularity as photographer of portraits, often of celebrities like Lord Alfred Tennyson, but he also got fond of portraying little children. 

Being friend with superior dean Liddell and his family gave Dodgson the opportunity to create photographic images of the Liddell children; and Alice became his favorite and friend till the end of her childhood. Winchester just reports the facts and does not participate in the speculation why Dodgson created so many portraits of children, some of them naked. He writes:

"His utter fascination with all of these girls, his need to picture them with or without clothing, his need to make them happy, to amuse them, to have them think of him as a friend and for him to feel free to do the same, his needs to buy them dresses and stocking and bonnets and shoes, and on rare occasions to exhibit brief flashes of physical affection, reflect an aspect of Charles Dodgson`s character that puzzles and intrigues to this day". The usually timid Victorian society did not take offense and Dogdson/Carroll stayed all his life reputable as mathematician, author & artist.

Dodgson - who created a catalogue of about three thousand photographies in his lifetime - made altogether 11 portraits of Alice Liddell alone; the most famous of them - and the focus of the book - is now kept on the Princeton University campus, in the Firestone Library, New Jersey, USA. The object is dressed in a ragged beggar-maid-a costume inspired by a Tennyson poem. "She is lazing coquettishly against a grumbling garden wall of limestone and sandstone, standing in a corner in her bare feet". 

Winchester asks if mother Liddell, a sister, or Miss Prickett, the governess, were present when Dodgson arranged the photo: "The garment has been decorously disarranged - her shoulder both visible, her elbows and lower arms, and her chest" and he wonders "would anyone care that Dodgson then reached behind the little girl´s hair and adjusted the off-white garment about her shoulders, such that it fell slightly from her left and exposed only just entirely her left nipple?". 

Winchester also elaborates about the first steps of the new medium, the competing inventions & technologies and the substantial preparations necessary to create a photographic image. According to Winchester "photography had a kind of manageable madness to it". 

I found this book because I became a fan of Winchester after reading "The Professor And The Madman" (my review) and recently "The River At The Center Of The World: A Journey Up The Yangtze And Back In Chinese Time" ( review). I am impressed how he mastered very different subjects and shaped them all into elegant prose.
 

 

Books: Jules Verne`s Twenty Thousand Leagues Under The Sea Revisited

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Xixin Liu, the author of the "Three Body Problem", confessed that a Jules Verne novel introduced him in his childhood into science fiction and kindled his interest in the genre. A Jules Verne reader for young adults was also my introduction into scifi. The French writer is indeed the father of science fiction and inspired the genre with his positive thinking, his optimistic attitude and his belief in science & technology ( driveby). 

Recently I reread his "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea". Captain Nemo and his submarine Nautilus are part of the world cultural heritage - like Odysseus. The novel follows two involuntary passengers who accompany the travels of the Nautilus around the world. Verne wanted to entertain, but also to educate. He wrote of course for a 19th century audience, who had much less knowledge than people today. 

 

                         Nautical Towns 

One sentence by Nemo inspires my imagination: "The sea supplies all my wants". The Captain and his crew indeed lived from fish, shellfish, turtles, oceanic plants like algae, sea cucumber, sea weed, and many minerals and other materials which are abundant in the oceans. The dependence on the sea reminds me a bit of Japanese cuisine, that had developed in an islandish country with a large population, but little space for agriculture to feed them. I also believe that sea food in general is very healthy and the oceans will gain more important for supporting the future of humankind. And for me is the idea of traveling months or even years in a submarine way more appealing than a years long journey in a spaceship towards lifeless Mars.

Another idea by Verne`s Nemo sounds also inspiring: "I can imagine the foundations of nautical towns, clusters of submarine houses, which, like the Nautilus, would ascend every morning to breath at the surface of the water, free towns, independent cities." Indeed I could imagine cities build on ships, maybe retired oil tankers and container ships. Their residents could escape burgeoning real estate prices and be free of despotic governments.  

 

                 Submarine Forests  

I enjoyed Nemo`s and his passenger`s travels and find Verne`s somewhat antique style charming. And the submarine worlds he described are amazing: 

"The rays of the sun struck the surface of the waves at rather an oblique angle, and the touch of their light, decomposed by refraction as through prism, flowers, rocks, plants, shells, and polypi were shaded at the edges by the seven solar colors. It was  marvellous, a feast for the eyes, this complications of colored tints, a perfect kaleidoscope of green, yellow, orange, violet, indigo, and blue; in one word, the whole palette of an enthusiastic colorist".

"The forest was composed of large tree-plants. Not a herb which carpeted the ground, not a branch which clothed the trees, was either broken or bent, nor did they extend horizontally; all stretched up to the surface of the ocean. Not a filament, not a ribbon, however thin they might be, but kept straight as a rod of iron".

The image above is a screenshot from an Apple screensaver showing some submarine plants - known as kelp  ( google)

The novel is part of a giant Verne omnibus reader: Jules Verne: Complete Works (Wisehouse Classics) (47 novels! more than 10,000 pages! amazon). According to editor comments some sentences and paragraphs are erased, but this does not interrupt the plot and I did not miss them. 

Since the whole volume costs just 99 cents it doesn`t matter.   

Books: The Blue Hour By Paula Hawkins

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - A while ago I enjoyed the psychological thriller "The Girl on the Train" by Paula Hawkins (my review ) - and later the movie adaption with Emily Blunt ( review). Therefore I gave another book by the author a try: "The Blue Hour" ( amazon). 

An employee of an art gallery, who is obsessed with the work of a late female artist, travels to a remote island where the artist had lived to investigate about her estate. There he has to a deal with an uncooperative woman who has been somewhat connected with the artist and still has control over the artist`s works (this is a spoiler free blog).

The plot develops very slowly and in several threads, following the art gallery employee and parallelly the woman on the island, blended with the diary of the late artist (this is spoiler free blog). The storyline focuses first on the artwork and expanses then to the complex personal lives of all participates, becoming more and more mysterious and violent. 

I have problems with the characters, especially with the males, who are either creeps & violent or meek & overtrusting. The dramatic finally is obviously written for the big screen.