Economics: Who Will Gain From Global Warming?

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Global warming rules the headlines. The media paint a bleak picture of the future. The pundits claim that everything will get worse and they warn that we may approach an apocalypse. But history shows that humans thrived when the climate got warmer and suffered when it got colder. The historian Greg Woolf  describes in his book "Rome - An Empire´s Story" (amazon) how climate changes have influenced Rome`s rise and fall: Rome`s ascend was accompanied by a warmer climate which permitted better crops that could feed more people; the decline occurred in a chilling period which reduced the food supply and caused flu epidemics. Kyle Harper, another historian, also relates in "The Fate of Rome" a cooling period, called a “little ice age”, with the fall of Rome  (amazon   spectator).

 

Earth experienced several warming & cold periods in the past.  In the period from around 900 through 1300 temperatures were higher than today (medieval). This period is documented for Europe and is known as the Medieval Warm Period (climate). Then temperatures in Europe and nearby regions of the North Atlantic have been similar to, or in some places exceeded, temperatures of the late twentieth century (medieval). Records show that Norse people colonized ice free areas of Greenland because of the unusually warm weather. In England, grapes were grown several hundred kilometres north beyond their current growth range.  Wheat and oats were grown around Trondheim, Norway, suggesting climates about warmer one degree C warmer than present (Fagan, 2007). Climbing temperatures brought a dramatic increase in crop yields and supported innovations in agricultural technologies and practice that triggered a revolution in agriculture, which lead to a considerable increase in northern Europe’s food production. Researchers from the National Museum in Copenhagen discovered that Vikings in Greenland did grow barley – the most important ingredient in brewing beer, making a form of porridge or baking bread, traditionally seen as staple foods in the Vikings’ nutritional diet (sciencenordic).

The cumulative effect of these agricultural innovations and the clement climate created annual food surpluses that directly improved the lives of medieval peasants by giving them a higher level of health, better and safer living conditions, and even a bit of free time to attend religious or village festivals. Because of the revolution in agriculture and the increased food supply, populations grew. Many people settled in towns or cities and a new era began – the Renaissance (warm-period).

This brings me to the map on top of this post. The image shows land which is used for agriculture - the bright green areas ( reddit). As you can see agriculture happens mostly in the temperate zones and in the tropics. Large areas in the north of Canada, Russia, Scandinavia & Alaska are not used for agricultural because the climate there is too cold and many areas are sealed per permafrost. The lessons from classical Rome and the Medieval Warm Period show that rising temperatures will allow agriculture to expand northward. Huge areas in Siberia, Canada & Scandinavia may be used for growing food.

A team of scientists from the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the National Institute of Aerospace in the US used available data and found that crop yields already increased from 1960 to 2010 in the south of Siberia (environmental). They predict that traditional Siberian crops – grain, potato and maize for silage – may increase by twofold and could gradually shift northwards by about 50–70 km per decade as the climate warms. New crops – maize for grain, sunflower for seed, melons, gourds, fruits and berries – could be introduced in the far south depending on winter conditions, but these would require irrigation in the drier climate. However, thanks to the great Siberian rivers – the Ob, Yenisei and Lena – with their numerous tributaries, southern Siberia could be irrigated easily. Farming these new crops would be cheaper too since they would not need to be imported.

These scientists assume that the Siberian taiga (or forest) could shift northwards by the end of this century (environmentalresearch). Their analyses also suggests that at least half of central Siberia would be occupied by steppe and forest-steppe that may become suitable for agriculture as the climate warms. Thanks to deep and fertile soils in this region, such a future climate would then allow for farming.

As a result of global warming Russia & Canada could export more grain which would reduce food prices on the world market. Especially people with low income will save a lot of money and will have a better standard of living.

 

And there are more positive effects. The melting Arctic is reducing the costs of transporting goods from Asia to Europe and reverse considerably. Recently a tanker sailed from Japan to Rotterdam via the Northern Sea Route the first time in winter (weforum). Container ships using the Northern Sea Route across the top of the world can cut the length of voyages by 40% compared with traveling via the Suez Canal.  Melting sea ice makes it also possible for many more ships to cross the Northwest Passage between  North America`s East and West Coast without help of an icebreaker (aljazeera). So the ships can avoid the long travel via the Panama Canal and can also save a lot costs. Falling transporting cost are reducing the costs for oil and many other goods which raises the living standard of many people.

The Roman and the medieval European history also show that people will get healthier when it gets warmers - because many illnesses are caused by cold weather. Today any people leave the cold US north and Canada and move to the warm south.  So, thanks to cheaper food, faster traffic and better health, many people will be better off when it gets warmer. And the Russia, Canada, Scandinavia & northern US will have a stronger economy.

It is interesting that the medieval warming period didn´t lead to catastrophes - instead the climbing temperatures were accompanied with the start of the Renaissance. Venice, didn`t drown in a rising ocean, quite the opposite, the city started to bloom and became a flourishing trade center between Western Europe and the rest of the world exactly at the same time when the glaciers were melting.

The media paint a biased and a too pessimistic picture of global warming, the described positive implications are ignored. I think the topic deserves a more balanced view.