Economics: Did COVID-19 Lockdowns Cause A Climate Change Hiatus?

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems the whole world is still in a lockdown - with the exceptions of China & South Korea. Many factories, shops & restaurants are shut down in Asia, Europa & the Americas, car traffic slowed down and there are almost zero flights. The whole world took a break. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic the world is burning much less oil, coal & gas. In April the US demand for gasoline dropped about 50% from last year (eia.gov). Europe & Asia burn much less gas as well. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, that in the first quarter of 2020 the global energy demand fell 3.8% year over year, wiping out all of 2019′s demand growth (cnbc ). The agency expects that global energy demand  declines by 6% this year.

The compulsory break lead to the largest drop in global CO2 emissions on record. The IEA reports “Not only are annual emissions in 2020 set to decline at an unprecedented rate, the decline is set to be almost twice as large as all previous declines since the end of World War II combined,” (cnbc). According to the IEA “global CO2 emissions are expected to decline even more rapidly across the remaining nine months of the year, to reach 30.6 [gigatonnes] for the 2020, almost 8% lower than in 2019.” They are not alone. A group of 13 international climate researchers calculates that global CO2 emissions dropped temporarily 17% below the usual daily average ( spiegel.de). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects that the coronavirus pandemic will drive carbon dioxide emissions down 6% this year (reuters).

Apparently the COVID-19  pandemic - and the measures against it - work like a carbon tax. Both reduce the burning of fossil and reduce the emission of CO2. One is intended, the other not. Obviously COVID-19 works much more radical than any reasonable tax would do - albeit only temporarily. What does that mean for global warming? I don´t expect a new ice age near term but the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will slowdown global warming for a while.