COVID-19 Pandemic: Did We Really Reach Herd Immunity?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still fighting the COVID-19 Pandemic. But some countries and regions seem to have the virus under control. Some observers claim that these places reached herd immunity. "Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune" ( mayoclinic ).

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Tyler Cowen, owner of the influential blog Marginal Revolution  refers to a sharp drop of new cases in Sweden and claims that the Scandinavian country eventually reached herd immunity (marginalrevolution ). Sounds nice, I would like to believe it. 

But there is another reason which is more plausible than the herd immunity thesis. People in Sweden enjoy their long summer vacations. Schools are closed from Midsummer (June 20th ) till Mid-August, and so are many factories and offices (wikipedia  ). "Summer in Sweden means workplaces emptying for weeks on end and a flood of 'out of office' replies from colleagues and clients taking lengthy vacations" (  thelocal)

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The situation is similar in New York state & New York City where the numbers of new known new cases dropped sharply. I notice that many people in my Manhattan neighborhoods (Lower East Side, East Village, Soho) changed their behavior. Since April I spot more masked faces on the streets and some people care about social distancing. Wearing face coverings is mandatory in shops & laundromats; gyms & schools are closed, there is no indoor dining and public life happens mostly outdoors in warm air with plenty of UV radiation. 

People in Sweden, New York City, Germany, Austria and other places in the Northern Hemisphere are enjoying the summer season mostly outdoors, apparently with low infection risks. The real test for the herd immunity thesis will come when the summer has ended.