Movies: Academy Award-Nominated Animated Short Films 2015

(Drivebycuriosity) - I love animated films. They don´t have rules, anything is possible and often they create astounding worlds full of hilarious things and events. You can see this again in this year`s  five Academy Award nominated animated short films which I enjoyed @ New York´s IFC cinema theater (ifc). As usual they added 4 films to compensate for the short running time.

My favorite of this year`s harvest is "The Bigger Picture" by Daisy Jacobs & Christopher Hees. The British film tells in just 7 minutes the story of 2 brothers who have to take care of their aging mother. I loved their artistic approach. The stylized drafted characters looked  like the murals of street artists who might have been inspired by the paintings of Amadeo Modigliani. The movie`s creators combined the drawn protagonists with animated real objects and other special effects and designed pictures that reminded me of installations in galleries for contemporary art. Well done.

"The Dam Keeper" by Robert Kondo & Dice Tsutsumi (18 minutes/USA) shows a strange and surreal world that could have been emanated from the dream of some impressionist painters (Van Gogh, Renoir, Monet). The protagonist does a peculiar but highly important job for the society that does not appreciate this.

The french film "Sweet Cocoon" (6 minutes/not nominated) introduced the audience to the beauties & dangers in the life of caterpillars & bugs.

The rest of the program also delivered a pleasant mix of funny and surprising ideas. Because of the shortness even the weaker ones were entertaining. But still - my fingers are crossed for "The Bigger Picture".

China: Happy Year Of The Goat

(Drivebycuriosity) - Today the Chinese celebrate New Year, the begin of the lunear "year of the goat" (wikipedia). Last year, the "year of the horse", delivered mixed results: China`s economy slowed to a growth rate of 7.4% (2013 +7.7%  reuters), but the Shanghai Composite Index, a gauge for Chinese stocks, jumped 53% in the recent 12 months. Will the goat jump as well? I think, yes.

It looks like that the China pessimism bubble of the recent years (driveby) burst last autumn. The  China stock rally has at least 4 reasons:

- A annual growth rate of 7.4% (0.3 point less than the year before) is much better than the crash the China pessimists have been announcing for years (china).
- Beijing continued reforms the government had started in 2013, including a liberation of stock trading between Hong Kong and mainland China, and announced more investments into airports, railways and other infrastructure.
- Monetary policy loosened the breaks (lower interest rates & less bank reserve i)
- Consumers & companies are benefitting from cheaper oil and other commodites

I believe that soft landing and stock market rally will continue in the year of the goat because of the ongoing reforms, cheaper commodities and a more accomodative monetary policy.



                                                           Secular Catching-Up


I am basically optimistic for China because of the secular catching-up process which is fueled by the still extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation values. The huge country is rapidly transforming into a consumer economy like the U.S. and other modern countries. Many peasants are moving to the huge metropolitan centers which are spread all over the huge country to lift their standard of living. This creates a fast rising affluent middle class, giving consumer spending a boost as the strong retail sales (growth rates around 12%) demonstrate.

China´s growth should be boosted by the technological progress and advances of Internet, automatization of industrial production and 3D-printing. These developments raise efficiency and  productivity of China´s economy as success stories like Alibaba and Baidu demonstrate.

 Happy New Year

Culture: Jim Jarmusch`s SQÜRL Scores Man Ray Films @ Brookfield Place, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Jim Jarmusch is one of my favorite movie directors. I love his films, especially "Only Lovers Left Alive", "Broken Flowers", "Dead Man" & "Down by Law". The moviemaker is also an ambitious and talented rock musician. Yesterday I enjoyed a performance of SQÜRL, a 2 man band, consisting of him (guitar & keyboards) and Carter Logan (percussion & keyboards)

SQÜRL scored four silent short films by Man Ray in Wintergarden @ Brookfield Place in South Manhattan (wnyc). The show will be repeated tomorrow 8 pm at the same place. They announced also that they plan to deliver this show at some of the big rock festivals this year.

Man Ray was an experimental artist (1890-1976) and a significant contributor to the Dada and Surrealist movements, says Wikipedia (wikipedia). You can see this in his movies. SQÜRL selected four short films: Retour a la Raison (1923), Emak Bakia (1926), Les Mysteres Du Chateau Du De (1929,) L’Etoile De Mer (1928) (running time together about 1 hour).

The films are funny and surprising. Ray used the camera like a toy and played with the available technologies, including stop-motions. Many scenes looked like the work of surrealist painters (driveby). The movies are also a praise of female beauty.

The purely instrumental score by SQÜRL fit perfectly to the films and amplified the sentiment. They created an atmospheric blend of grunge, heavy metal and psychedelic rock. The slow but powerful pieces, originally composed for this show, reminded of bands like Mogwai (driveby).

If you enjoy the combination of old movies with contemporary alternative rock you might watch out for the announced SQÜRL gigs this year or attend tomorrow´s show @ Winter Garden.

Enjoy!

Contemporary Art: Circle of Fire @ NOoSphere, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - It´s freezing cold in New York City. Maybe a "circle of fire" could warm you up. The gallery NOoSphere on Manhattan´s East Houston Street has a show called: Circle of Fire: Visionary Art from Cold Climes (through March 1, 2015 http://no-in-nyc.org/).

They describe themselves as "an artist-iniated, non-for-profit venue for exhibits, performances and other programmings". The current show contains surrealist paintings by artists from Iran, Denmark, Afghanistan and Norway.



                              Fancyful Play

I enjoy the fanciful play with shapes & colors and the mix of realism and speculative fiction. Some of the works remind me a bit of the Renaissance painters.



       A Night Of Mystery, Laughs And Wonder

Let the pictures speak for themselves.


BTW: For coming Friday, February 20, 7-9pm they anounce a new event, a round of live performance pieces within the context of our ongoing exhibit. The promise: "Fabulous female artists will treat us to a night of mystery, laughs and wonder". ( upcoming)

 Enjoy!

Economy: Gas Prices - Why Pessimist Consumers Will Become Disappointed

(Drivebycuriosity) - Last week we learned that US retail sales fell in January (businessinside). This surprised me because I had expected that US consumers will respond to cheaper gasoline and spend more money for other goods and services.

The investment bank Morgan Stanley has a psychological explanation for the missing response (businessinsider). They think that the consumers ignore the price drop for gas because they believe that the price reduction is just temporary. According to last Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey report, consumers expect that gas prices will rise soon and we be much higher in the coming years.

I think these expectations are wrong and will become disappointed. US gas prices (minus 30%) fell much less than the price of oil (minus 50%) (fuelgauge). As I had explained recently gas prices should fall further and adapt to the cheaper oil in the coming months (driveby).

I also assume that the price for oil has to go deeper. Oil supply is larger than oil demand - thanks to the US shale oil revolution and more oil from recovering Iraq, Russia, Iran and other nations - leading to a growing oil glut (commodities). As a result the US oil inventories are on a record high. The exploration cost for shale oil and other resources are falling, driven by the technological progress and advances in engineering (seekingalpha). And there are more and more electric cars on the streets - reducing the demand for gasoline.

Therefore the US average price for gasoline should drop below $2 and stay there for years to come - in opposition to the pessimist expectations.

Commodities: The Logical Flaws Of The Oil Rally

(Drivebycuriosity) - Oil got expensive again. The price of oil (Brent Crude) jumped around 30% in the recent 4 weeks! The aggressive oil price hike is astounding because the already record high US oil inventories & production are still rising (eia.gov).

The oil rally has been driven by massive speculation (oilprice reuters cnbc). Hedge funds and other speculators are betting that

- US shale oil production, which caused the global oil glut, will drop significantly in the coming months
- OPEC will cut production on their next meeting in June
- global oil demand will rise soon thanks to a stronger global economy

Apparently many gamblers are betting that all three alleged factors work together which could lead to a sharp (v-sized) oil price recovery like in the years 2009 and 2010.



                                                 Moving Targets



I disagree. I think that the oil rally has logical flaws:

1. US oil production & inventories rose in January in spite of the overhyped shutdown of the oil rigs (eia.gov). Many of the oil rigs are profitable at prices around $60 and the switched off rigs will come back if prices rise further (marketwatch  bloomberg). The costs of extracting oil from shale are falling - thanks to new technologies and advanced engineering ("The break-even price point is a moving target" marketwatch ). US producers are even re-activating abandoned old oil wells (re-fracking bloomberg Technology). Rising efficiency & productivity gains might explain why the US oil production is still climbing.

2.  An OPEC production cut in June will be less and less likely if the oil rally continues. Saudi Arabia declared that they accept very low oil prices in order to squeeze out the US shale competitors. A rising oil price would foil this strategy.

Other oil producers - like Iran, Russia, China & Iraq - might not agree to a production cuts because they want to produce more oil to finance their budgets (qz.com) and to benefit from a political stabilization (Iraq).

OPEC - and other oil producers - have also to bear in mind that the cost for alternative energies - solar power & wind craft - are falling. Apple already invested $850 in a solar farm to power a part of their stores, offices, headquarters and data centers (bloomberg). And electric cars are getting more popular. Maybe in some decades the demand for oil will be much lower than today. It would make sense for Saudi Arabia and other oil producers with low costs and huge reserves to sell oil  as long they get a (relatively) good price for it.

3. Global oil demand will recover less than the speculators expect, because oil is still expensive. Brent crude cost around 3-times what we had to pay before 2002. This is still enough incentive to save money and to reduce oil consumption (demand destruction). History shows that rising oil prices are slowing down the global economy.  Climbing oil prices in the years 2009 and 2010 are one of the causes of the disappointingly slow recovery of the global economy.


Resume: I believe that the recent rally is just a "dead-cat-bounce", driven by a snowball effect (price gains attracted more gamblers who´s purchases add to the price hike). I think that the fundamentals,  meaning strong supply & weak demand, will continue and the oil glut that will flush away this rally.

Culture: New York´s Spring Fashion Week 2015, Blossoms On Ice

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - It´s bitter cold in New York City and snowflakes are in the air. But anyway,  New York´s Spring Fashion Week 2015 started Yesterday (continuing through February 19th, 2015 mbfashionweek). Winter or not, hundred of models are in the city to celebrate themselves and the world of fashion.

Following my tradition I pilgrimed again to the Lincoln Center before the Metropolitan Opera House, where the tent of the sponsor Mercedes Benz serves as a hub for the fashion spectacle (driveby).

Again I could spot beauties from all over the world, a sign that fashion is a truly global business. The event is also a proof that New York City does not stand only for Wall Street, Broadway & media. The metropolis is one of the global centers of the fashion world and home to many companies in the textile business. 

It seemed to me that the event is more global than before and I had the impression that more Asian models came to the fashion show than in the recent years. Anyway, the Fashion week is really a place to spot beauty and glamour.

The models seem to have fun as well. Even the chilly wind couldn´t spoil the party sentiment.



                          Faces Of The World

The fashion council is not just about textiles, it is also about faces. I think these pictures speak for themselves.

I am not an expert in fashion but I got the impression that dresses, shirts & pants got a little bit more colorful this year.

             Defying The Artic Conditons

As you can see below, some designers used the Fashion Week to provoke a little bit:

I admire the professionality off all the participants who are defying the artic conditons. The chill couldn´t stop them to pose and to smile for the flocks of photographers and onlockers. Thanks to all here portrayed models. And I am looking forward to the next Fashion Week which is expected for September and should be in a much warmer climate (here my report from last September fall-fashion).

Enjoy.