Economics: When Will It Occur To Trump That He Will Not Win His Trade War?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There are increasing signs that President Trump will not win his trade war against China. Yes, China reported last week that her economy is cooling and that her economic growth rate (GDP growth) slowed to 6% YoY. But the American economy is cooling too (graphs below). Apparently in the recent 12 months both countries got their growth rates cut by about one percent point each, China went from 6.8% to 6.0% and the US from 3.5% to 2.0%.

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Trade war or not, China´s economy is still growing 3-times as fast as the American. Parts of the US economy are already shrinking, especially manufacturing. If the trade war continues - or even escalates - both economies will slow down even more and the US might reach a recession. American manufacturing may be already there. But China is much farther away from a recession - production is still growing about 5% and retail sales are expanding almost 8% (driveby). Remember that China escaped the global recession in 2008 and still grew about 10% (macrotrends). It seems that the US will need a depression to force China on her knees.

Does President Trump really want to drive the US into a recession or even worse? A severe recession might ruin his chance for getting reelected next year  China`s leader Xi Jinping, his opponent, does not have this problem. And Xi could blame a serious downturn to Trump and the trade war. If the President doesn`t get it, someone should tell him. That would save the global economy a lot of trouble.