Economics: Rising Antitrust Creates More Bureaucracy, Threatens Productivity And Innovation & Slows Global Economic Growth

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that there is a global spring for antitrust. In China the authorities suspended the IPO of online finance giant Ant Group (with a target of $300 plus billion valuation), claiming that the company may hurt their customers and disturb China`s financial system.  The Chinese government also started an investigation into the e-commerce giants Alibaba (investor in Ant) & Tencent. The regulators want to curb their power, alleging that these companies act as monopolists and that they treat competitors and business partners unfair. Europe is performing a similar attack on the global online giants. The allmighty European Commission began an investigation into Amazon, assuming that they "illegally distorted competition" and abuse their dominance. The authority also started an antitrust investigation in Apple, claiming that they are distorting competition as well. The European Union already extracted about $10 billion from Google for alleged "antitrust violations". 

The American authorities are participating in the global antitrust campaign. Recently a bipartisan group of Washington DC lawmakers, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, published a 400 page report, claiming that Big Tech is abusing their market powers ( cnbc). The paper includes accusations against Google, Amazon, Apple & Facebook and contains plans how to regulate them. The coming Biden administration is expected to regulate Amazon, Google, Apple & Facebook stronger than the previous government. 

It seems there is much in common between American, Chinese & European trust busters. They all want to curb the power & growth of the global mega-companies. Mighty government authorities - and politicians - all over the world are aiming to gain more power and to expand their influence at the expense of the online goliaths. 

Apparently they dislike companies like Amazon, Google & Apple which are huge & growing fast, even though that Big Tech operates efficient and provides valuable services for the community, otherwise they would lose their customers. "Customer trust is hard to win and easy to lose" ( Bezos). The trust busters ignore that the Big Tech companies are the engines of global economic growth because they create value with a rapid speed. The current Covid-19 crisis with lockdowns & quarantines would be even less bearable without cheap & fast deliveries by Amazon, useful information provided by Google search & maps and powerful but affordable devices like iPhones, iPads & Macbooks. Customers love Big Tech, otherwise they would shun them, bureaucratic regulators hate them.

The antitrust campaigns are throwing sand into their gears of the global economy and creat friction (washingtonpolicy). The crusade leads to more  bureaucracy which " is the death of any achievement” according to Einstein. New regulations and inquiries reduce the productivity & efficiency of Big Tech companies; they shrink their abilities to further innovate because they are occupying management capacities and are slowing decision processes.  

The Big Tech`s strategic thinkers will be preoccupied with new regulations & inquiries and will have less time & energy for innovations. Instead of thinking about new products & services for their customers and to improve existing ones the strategists will have to think about new laws and how to comply with external bureaucrats and investigations. The anti tech campaigns also come with high costs which will lower the capabilities to hire new talents, they also will curb salaries of the employees and translate into higher prices for the customers. Costs & bureaucratic frictions create headwinds which will slow growth of innovative & successful companies and with them the global economy.

There is a negative side effect as well. The anti-Big-Tech campaigns in East & West employ thousands of high paid lawyers and are burning so a lot of tax payers money which otherwise could be used for education or health care. The anti-tech crusades create a lot of highly attractive job opportunities for anti-trust lawyers and bureaucrats which attract many young talents. Instead moving into technology, medical research and other sciences, which would benefit the society, these people are wasting their talents in unproductive skirmishes. As a result the anti-tech crusade will slow down global economic growth and will harm everybody who does not live from the money of the taxpayers.

 

 

Economics: In Praise Of My Ebook Reader

(Drivebycuriosity) - Some years ago I moved from Bonn, Germany, to New York City. My library of 1,000 plus books had to stay behind, not enough space in the small Manhattan flat where I am living now. Since then I buy & collect just ebooks which I read on my Amazon Kindle.

Ebooks take no place, an important issue in Manhattan. They are often cheaper than the printed version. When ebooks are published than they usually cost about the same like the paperback version, cheaper than a hardcover (prices are set by the publisher). I notice that prices for ebooks on my Amazon wish list often get reduced after a while, then they are even cheaper than paperbacks. And there are myriads of self published books, novellas & short stories which cost less than $3, often just 99 cents.

Ebooks have just the weight of one Kindle - less than many books, very fortunate when I am traveling. Wherever I am with my ebook reader I have access to myriads of books - no trouble of carrying too much weight on a flight. This is also an advantage when I am sitting in a park and I am reading there.

Ebooks don´t need an extra light. When I am reading in the night I don´t trouble my wife too much with a reading light, no need to steal her sleep.

Now I am trying to survive through the Covid-19 crisis. I had to skip my travel plans for the time being and I reduced going out & shopping to avoid infection. Thanks to my Kindle there is no need to take a risk and to go to a bookshop (if they are still open). The ebook reader gives me access to libraries of books which I can instantly download & read, very fortunately when there is not much else to do.  The Kindle became a really good friend in the Covid-19 crisis.

 

Stock Market: Happy Thanksgiving 2020

 (Drivebycuriosity) - This year we experience a very different Thanksgiving. The US are suffering a third wave of Covid-19 infections with new records of known cases & surging hospitalizations. Smart & considerate people stay at home and minimize personal contacts to avoid infecting themselves and others. Caution & fear are curbing businesses even more than lockdowns & quarantines ( nber.org). Many industries, including physical shops, restaurants & airlines, are suffering. 

But the US stock market climbed to new all-time highs anyway. The S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, gained 12% YTD and climbed about 15% since Thanksgiving 2019. As usual the market looks ahead.  Someday the pandemic will end and a row of vaccines are in the making, creating the hope that the crisis will soon be finished.

Economy - and stock markets - are getting a lot of help from an accelerating technological revolution spurred by the Covid-19 crisis. Internet - and other software applications - are helping everyone to deal with lockdowns and social distancing. Microsoft`s CEO Satya Nadella said that “two years of digital transformation took place in two months” ( microsoft ). The CEO of Bill.com, an online clearing service, said: "We believe the ongoing pandemic has accelerated the need for businesses to focus on digital transformation” (seekingalph). 

The Covid-19 Pandemic changed many habits. The crisis forces many people to work, learn, shop, educate & entertain from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales worldwide are surging, more people are working from home, they are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Not only consumers are changing, corporations adapt as well. We are witnessing an accelerated shift toward digital technologies that are faster, less expensive, more productive and raise creativity.   

I suppose that the stock market climb will continue in 2021 and beyond. During the recessions of the years 2001/02 & 2008 and the current crisis companies restructured and reduced costs significantly in order to survive. When Covid-19 is defeated they will be much fitter and more efficient than before. I believe that this learning process will continue and will translate into a long term trend of rising company profits & stock markets.

Happy Thanksgiving

Science Fiction: Beyond The Dragon's Gate By Yoon Ha Lee

  (Drivebycuriosity) - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is getting more and more important in our lives. AI is also gaining more attention in the science fiction genre. There are already a myriad of novels & short stories dealing with machine learning. I especially enjoyed Ian McEwan´s novel "Machines like me" about a humanoid robot ( my review ).

 I just finished a very short story (16 pages $0.99) by the American-Korean author Yoon Ha Lee with an interesting new take on the topic (amazon). The plot is set in a war in some future. Anna Kim, a scientist & software expert, got kidnapped by the military and trapped in a spaceship, an orbital star fortress. The military are in a deep mess because the AIs who had controlled their hyper-sophisticated spaceships and fought their wars suddenly committed suicide and sacrificed their ships. Anna gets the order to communicate with the last remaining AI and to find out what happened in order to prevent the total disaster.

There is not much happening. But I enjoyed Yoon Ha Lee´s style and how she described Anna`s world, the strange spaceship and the even weirder AI. The story woke my appetite for more tales by the author.

 

 

Contemporary Art: All Figured Out - A Group Exhibition @ Zürcher Gallery, New York

 

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(Drivebycuriosity) - Covid-19 or not, Manhattan`s art galleries are open again, at least some of them. The ambitious Zürcher Gallery (33 Bleeker Street New York) hosts a group exhibition focused on figurative paintings, called "All Figured Out" (through December 20, 2020 galeriezurcher ). I display here my favorites, a very subjective selection as usual. 

On the top of this post you can see an image by Marc Desgrandchamps followed by 2 works by Lois Dodd.

 

Above 3 images by Matt Bollinger. I had already reported about Bollinger`s 2017 show @ Zürcher ( driveby).

 

Above 2-times Kyle Staver.

 

Last but not least: Charles Garabedian.

 

To be continued.

  

 

Netflix: Binge Watching The Queen`s Gambit

  (Drivebycuriosity) - In the recent days I have been binge watching the biopic "The Queen`s Gambit" on Netflix (imdb). A girl, nine years old, became an orphan and lands in an orphan home where she get`s introduced into chess. She has lots of talent and develops an obsession for the game which starts an astonishing chess career. The show follows her personal development & struggles and her steep rise in the world of chess (this is a spoil free blog. You can read a synopsis here wikipedia).

It was a real joy watching Anya Taylor-Joy as Beth Harmon, the chess prodigy. She had me already impressed as leading character in "The Witch" (driveby ). The character is mesmerizing, super smart, sexy & highly ambitious; the beauty and the genius - and maybe a little bit also the beast. Tyler Cowen and other commenters see some Asperger traits, but why not ( marginalrevolution valneil  ). 

 I had fun observing her when she destroyed her opponents in the tournaments, but I also liked other characters like the stoic Soviet champion Vasily Borgov (incarnated by Marcin Dorociński), her sweet, generous & caring foster mother, who acted almost as the big sister, (Marielle Heller as Mrs. Alma Wheatley ) and the geeks who supported Beth mentally and gave her advice.

The tournaments are dramatically staged - the camera often focuses on Taylor-Joy`s amazing eyes - waking my appetite to retry the game again sometimes. The cinematography captured the 1960s perfectly with fancy clothes and decadent Parisian hotels & bars, supported by a wonderful soundtrack with an eclectic selection of contemporary songs.

It seems that the fictional story seems got inspired by the career of legendary Bobby Fisher, the American answer to the Russians who dominated the world of chess then (wikipedia ). The show is a must see.

Economics: China`s Strong Economic Recovery Is Organic & Sustainable

 (Drivebycuriosity) - China`s economy is continuing her strong recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. This night we learned that China´s industrial production grew in October 6.9%, retail sales advanced 4.3% & foreign direct investment gained 6.4% - all numbers YoY ( tradingeconomics).

 

( source)

 

 

 The US might even have better recovery numbers for retail & GDP but there is a huge difference. America needs huge stimulus programs by the government to recover and pumped some trillions of dollars into her economy while keeping interest rates at zero. China abstained from such measure. China does not have huge stimulus programs and government checks and China´s benchmark interest rates is still 3.85% ( cnbc). China´s economy recovered on her own strength (aus eigener Kraft).

 China´s fast recovery from the corona crisis is no surprise. Beijing responded early, fast and consequently to the pandemic. Apparently the population has enough discipline for hand washing, mask-wearing & social distancing. As a result China´s numbers of new infections, active cases and deaths fell to almost zero (worldometers ).

The success allowed the quick reopening of China`s economy and the return to normality. China`s economy might even get stronger when the corona crisis has past. History shows that consumer and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks. Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: they get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative.  Companies are streamlining operations and are getting more efficient & productive as they always do when they are challenged. China will overtake America sooner than many think!

 

 

 

 

 

Books: The Ballad Of A Small Player By Lawrence Osborne

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Lawrence Osborne belongs to my favorite authors. I love his novels "Hunters in the Dark" (my review) and "The Glass Kingdom" ( review) and I also enjoyed his book "Bangkok Days ( review). I just finished his "The Ballad of a Small Player" ( amazon). Again a pleasure to read.

The novel is written in first person. The narrator, an aging Englishman who calls himself "Lord Doyle", came to a lot of money and went to Macau to spend his fresh fortune for gambling in the casino palaces. Like in "Hunters" & "Glass Kingdom" the leading character is a drifter without an aim and certainly not shy of risks which leads to a chain of events (this is a spoiler free blog)

I do not like the leading character - not many will - because he is a pathetic gambler & drinker and behaves parasitic, masochistic and totally immorally. But his tale - as ridiculous & surreal as it seems - fascinated me anyway and kept me on the edge. I wanted to know how long this could go on. And I indulged into Osborne`s descriptions of the splendid casinos, hotels & restaurants, the atmosphere there and the often weirdly acting Chinese & Western players: "The rooms seemed underwater, the smoke static like fish milk suspended in water that isn`t floating".  

The English author, who lives in Bangkok, depicts wonderfully the tropical climate & live in South Eastern Asia and the huge variety of local food & drinks which the narrator almost continuously is swallowing up. The novel is of course spiced with the mathematics & probabilities of games of luck blended with Asian superstition, including the gambler´s fallacy which ignores mathematical laws and "involves an assertion of negative correlation between trials of the random process".

Osborne added another milestone to the tradition of Dostoevsky, Roald Dahl, Ian Fleming and many others who enjoyed gambling and wrote about the addiction to it (rubyfortune ). 

Economics: US Election 2020 - Best Of Both Worlds

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that the US election created the best of both worlds. The US will get a left-leaning (called liberal) President who has to deal with a more conservative (Republican) Senate. They will slow down each other, creating a very healthy balance.

The new President has the reputation for hiking taxes, regulating the economy more intense and shutting down cheap US oil and gas production (fracking). The senate will slow him down or stop him doing that. So we can expect moderate taxes and regulation for the coming 4 years which should give the economy a boost. The new President might not get the power to end US fracking which is keeping oil & gas prices low since 2016 (driveby). There is also hope that the new President will unwind Trump´s irrational trade war against China, which has damaged the US economy already (my post ).

History shows, the weaker the government the better the economy. Less government influence means less bureaucracy, leading to lower costs and less friction. Private enterprise are gaining more scope which animates more private investments. Money is used more efficiently leading to higher economic growth. Enjoy! 

Science Fiction: The Eleventh Gate By Nancy Kress

(Drivebycuriosity) - Nancy Kress belongs to my favorite science fiction authors. She owns the talent to develop a variety of scientific ideas into amazing stories & novels. Her oeuvre covers an impressive spectrum of sciences translated into speculative but plausible fiction. I enjoyed her Probability Trilogy, a space opera which blends quantum physics with action (amazon), and love many of her short stories.

This brought my attention to her newest publication: "The Eleventh Gate" (amazon ). The space opera is set in a far future. Humans have settled many planets which are light years distant from each other but could be immediately reached through a network of ten gates, a kind of wormholes. Then a eleventh gate is discovered which changes the balance between two dynasties which have been ruling the known universe. 

The novel focuses on the conflict between two mega-corporations, each controlled by a family dynasty. There is the Peregoy dynasty, where everything is controlled and taken cared for. Jobs were provided for all, capitalism was tightly regulated, order and respect were  enforced. "None of that, although it forced planetary peace and eliminated want, created the atmosphere need for creative innovation". On the other side stands the Landry corporation, "whose Libertarian world and unregulated capitalism allowed for virtually anything to be created, tested, and revised." 

 It seems that Mrs. Kress was inspired by Frank Herbert´s Dunes and mixed it with Ann Rand´s Atlas Shrugged. There are are also some traces of quantum physics, Buddhist philosophy and more. Unfortunately I got soon bored and didn´t care much about the struggles between powerful grandmothers & granddaughters, who represent their dynasties, and all their petty brawls. The book might entertain notorious Kress enthusiasts but her Probability Trilogy and her anthology "The Best of Nancy Kress" ( amazon) are much better gates into her amazing universe. 

 

 

Economics: How Donald Trump Lost His Trade War

(Drivebycuriosity) -  Donald Trump`s trade war against China has a new casualty: Donald Trump himself. The trade war cost him voters and changed the balance in favor of Joe Biden. Why that? Trump`s massive tax hikes on Chinese products and his blockade of Chinese imports and companies (Huawei) did a lot damage to the US economy and pissed off many potential Trump voters. Eventually the trade war slowed economic growth in the US since 2018 and made the Covid-19 recession even worse. 

Imports from China, including apparel, hardware, furniture and toys, got more expensive, hurting families with low incomes. Higher prices for many imported products, including Aluminum & steel, harmed US car producers and other industries, which rely on cheap primary products, and sucked money out of consumer`s wallets, reducing the purchases of US products. US farmers lost markets because China bought less corn, wheat & fewer pork from the US as a retaliation. The trade war also disconnected complicated supply chains. As a result the trade war destroyed American incomes & jobs, not helpful in an election. There is hope that Trump`s successor will end the suicidal trade war soon.

Books: Monkey Hunting By Christina Garcia

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - I find it difficult to discover a book which caters my taste. Reviews don´t help much because the reviewers have often very different tastes and they may have read much fewer books in their lives than I have. When I finally like a book I often read more by this author in the hope these books have a similar quality. I enjoyed Christina Garcia`s novel "The Lady Matador`s Hotel" very much. The author invented funny & hilarious scenes but also tragic & violent episodes (my review  ). I also like her novel "King of Cuba (my review ).

This brought my attention to Garcia´s "Monkey Hunting" (amazon ). This book is not as strong as the mentioned novels but acceptable. The plot starts in the year 1857 in Amoy, China, when Chen Pan, a Chinese man, was coaxed to travel to Cuba where he hoped to make a fortune. But things went different for him (this is a spoiler free blog). The story follows him and later his various offspring and jumps to Guantanamo, Shanghai, New York & into the Vietnam war. As in the other Garcia novels the book has surprising, entertaining & dramatic parts, but after 100 pages or so or lost interest in the fate of the Garcia family. 

Contemporary Art: Adam Lupton´s Cerberus @ GR Gallery New York

  (Drivebycuriosity) - New York City is still fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. But at least some art galleries reopened for the public, giving me the chance to publish my first contemporary art post since March. The ambitious GR-Gallery on Manhattan´s Bowery has a fascinating new show (my reports about former shows are here  & here ).

They display now paintings by Adam Lupton. The show is called "Cerberus" (through November 14 2020 gr-gallery  ). I like the images which remind me a bit of Neo Rauch but speak their own mystic language.

 

 

The press release explains: "This body of Lupton’s work grows out of his OCD, where performing mental and physical rituals, endlessly seeking assurance, and repeating mantras and projections make up his every day – mediating between himself and an unyielding “otherness”. Through this lens, the work weaves together individual and societal rituals, spiritual schizophrenia, and self-defining myth, thereby illuminating our various attempts at and desires for certainty."

 

Adam Lupton, was born 1987 in Vancouver, Canada and currently lives and works in Brooklyn.

 

Enjoy!

Books: The Bishop`s Bedroom By Piero Chiara

(Drivebycuriosity) -  An Italian in his thirties has a little sailboat and likes to travel all over the Lago Maggiore, a lake shared by Italy & Switzerland on the southern edge the Alps (Alpen). He becomes friend with Orimbelli who invites him into his Manson on the lake`s shore and later joins his travels. They share a lot fun, but then things are changing (amazon).

Piero Chiara, the author of "The Bishop´s Bedroom", was a famous Italian authors and this is his most famous work. Reviewers call the books a "hypnotic novel, a mix of thriller and mood piece on the nature of sexual attraction…. a murder mystery and a lyrical study of desire, greed, and deception" ( amazon). 

I have mixed feelings with the little book (about 150 pages). I indulged into the descriptions of the various travels on Lago Maggiore and the frequent visits of the restaurants around the lake. They woke my appetite to stay there sometimes and to dine in the frequently mentioned places. The plot, set in the year 1946, a year after WWII, is humorous, sometimes  hilarious and spiced with psychology. I liked the style which seems conservative today but has a lot charm. But some characters are not believable, some parts of the plot don´t make much sense and at the end I got the impression the author got tired with his story and went to something else.