Culture: New York´s Spring Fashion Week 2015, Blossoms On Ice

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - It´s bitter cold in New York City and snowflakes are in the air. But anyway,  New York´s Spring Fashion Week 2015 started Yesterday (continuing through February 19th, 2015 mbfashionweek). Winter or not, hundred of models are in the city to celebrate themselves and the world of fashion.

Following my tradition I pilgrimed again to the Lincoln Center before the Metropolitan Opera House, where the tent of the sponsor Mercedes Benz serves as a hub for the fashion spectacle (driveby).

Again I could spot beauties from all over the world, a sign that fashion is a truly global business. The event is also a proof that New York City does not stand only for Wall Street, Broadway & media. The metropolis is one of the global centers of the fashion world and home to many companies in the textile business. 

It seemed to me that the event is more global than before and I had the impression that more Asian models came to the fashion show than in the recent years. Anyway, the Fashion week is really a place to spot beauty and glamour.

The models seem to have fun as well. Even the chilly wind couldn´t spoil the party sentiment.



                          Faces Of The World

The fashion council is not just about textiles, it is also about faces. I think these pictures speak for themselves.

I am not an expert in fashion but I got the impression that dresses, shirts & pants got a little bit more colorful this year.

             Defying The Artic Conditons

As you can see below, some designers used the Fashion Week to provoke a little bit:

I admire the professionality off all the participants who are defying the artic conditons. The chill couldn´t stop them to pose and to smile for the flocks of photographers and onlockers. Thanks to all here portrayed models. And I am looking forward to the next Fashion Week which is expected for September and should be in a much warmer climate (here my report from last September fall-fashion).

Enjoy.

Contemporary Art: Why A New Record For A "Richter" Is Something to Celebrate

(Drivebycuriosity) - Stock markets are at record highs, interest rates are on record lows. And there is more to celebrate: A new record for a "Richter".

Gerhard Richter´s painting  "Abstraktes Bild" (abstract picture) was sold for £30.4 million ($46.3 million) at this week`s contemporary art evening auction at Sotheby’s in London (artnews). This was the highest price for a "Richter" and also for a living European artist.

I think this is a sign that art can still be beautiful and be sought-after. This is also a significant countermotion to the current trend on the art market. Art writer Don Thompson claims in his book about the "peculiar economics from the world of contemporary art (here my review driveby): "Beautiful or not, the central characteristic of twenty-first-century contemporary art is that traditional artists skills of composition and coloration have become secondary to originality, innovation, and shock-hovwever achieved".

Damien Hirst for instance produced several versions of a conserved shark in a formaldehyd tank, called "The Physical Impossibility of Death in the Mind of Someone Living" and "Beautiful Inside My Head Forever", which got sold each for at least $8 million (wikipedia).

In 2013 Francis Bacon´s especially ugly triptych "Three Studies of Lucian Freud", a portrait of his late lover, who had once thrown him through a glass door, sold  for US$142.4 million—the highest price attained at auction for a work of art (wikipedia).


Congratulations, Gerhard Richter!

Economy: The De-Hyping Of Commodities

(Drivebycuriosity) - Commodity prices are under pressure. Oil prices dropped around 50% since last summer; natural gas, copper, wheat, corn, cotton and other commodities also got much cheaper. The S&P GSCI Index, a gauge for all commodity prices, lost around 40% recently. We are now witnessing the de-hyping of commodities.

The massive price drop set an end to a period of high & rising commodity prices which had started around 2003. Since begin of this century oil, metals, agriculture and other commodities have been hyped by Goldman Sachs and other banks. Banks & brokers proclaimed a super-cycle for commodities and predicted high prices for oil and other materials because of the rising demand from China and other emerging countries and alleged supply shortfalls (driveby).

Hedge funds and many other speculators followed this advice and bought massively futures, ETFs and other financial products which are related to commodity prices. These investments led to a financialization of commodities, meaning that oil, metal and agriculture prices are set on financial markets like stocks & bonds. The speculative purchases caused a commodity rally on the financial markets - a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rising prices attracted even more commodity speculators which lead to a snowball effect. For years commodity speculation looked like a oneway street.

The commodity hype of the recent years created bubbles, because commodity prices became a mirror of the behavior of the financial investors and lost the connection to the fundamentals. High commodity prices did what the always do, they animated the producers to produce more and prompted the consumers to consume less. In the US people invested into shale oil, worldwide miners drew more metal from the earth and farmer planted more crops, all driven by higher prices & profits. No we have an oil flood and an oversupply of many other commodities (supply). The dream of a super cycle came to an end.

I think that the price drops are a sign of the de-hyping of commodities. Many speculators are selling their financial investments in commodities and are re-transferring their money into stocks & bonds.


                                




                                    Secular Trend Of Falling Commodity Prices

I also believe that we are back on the long term (secular) trend of falling commodity prices: The longest dataset publicly available (The Economist`s index of industrial commodity prices) shows, that "There has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of about 1 percent per year from 1862-1999 (jstor) (= commodity prices fell 1 per cent relative to the general price level).

As described above this trend has been temporary interrupted thanks to the hype induced by banks and brokers, who earn a lot money with trading futures and other commodity related financial instruments. I agree with scientists who claim that the dramatic price increases over the last decade were just a temporary blip up within the context of a longer-run trend of stable or declining relative prices"(econbrowser).

Why that? The shale oil revolution in the US explains why commodities get cheaper over the time. Technological progress and human ingenuity are reducing the cost of oil exploration and are enabling investors to tap reserves which have been to costly before. Farmers use more and more machines for planting & harvesting and benefit from improvements in irrigation, fertilizer, pesticides, and hybridization. And miners also use better machines and new technologies to prospect metals & coal.

I assume we re-entered a new era of (relatively) falling commodity prices driven by advances in technology and developments in engineering.

Contemporary Art: Flying Houses & More

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Contemporary art is a wonderland full of surprising and funny things. A a two person show @ gallery Muriel Guepin (83 Orchard muriel) confirms this  (through February 22): Laurent Chéhère "Flying Houses" and Patrick Dintino "Spectrum Paintings".

I enjoyed Chéhère`s collages (here his website laurent). The French photographer, who had worked before his artistic career for clients such as Audi and Nike, seems to tell funny stories in his surrealistic pictures.

The images make me really curious. What is going on in the flying hotel above?

 



                           Rainbows On Canvas

Patrick Dintino`s rainbows deliver a fine contrast. His paintings (oil on canvas) remind me of the library I once had. One shelf was covered with books from Edition Suhrkamp, by a German publisher, each one in a different segment of the colors of the spectrum.



                  Industrial Cattle Farming

And there is more. Muriel Guepin`s neighbour Artifact Gallery (84 Orchard Street artifact) shows works by Daniela Alfarano, Michael Hirschbichler & Sven Nielsen (through February 22, 2015).

Above you can see 2 works by Michael Hirschbichler. The Austrian artist seems to be fascinated by massive buildings (atelier-hirschbichler).  The columns above remind me of the Italian architecture in the times of Mussolini.  The second painting - called "slaughterhouse coplex" - "monumentalises the logistical process of industrial cattle farming", explains the website frameweb, a service that focuses on architecture & design (frameweb).

Above this paragraph you can see 2 paintings by Sven Nielsen. The first image looks like some complex microorganism or an alien life form, the second picture could show some flying objects from a science fiction movie.


Enjoy!

Culture: What Is Wrong With Dystopian Science Fiction?

(Drivebycuriosity) - It seems there is a new cult: dystopian science fiction (wikipedia). The majority of movies which are regarded as science fiction draw a pessimistic picture of the future:  Hunger Games, The Road, Divergent, Oblivion, Equilibrium, The Giver and many more. It´s the same with science fiction books - especially those catering the young adult. Time magazine complains that "science fiction seems to have become stuck in a rut of hopelessness" (time) and the website io9 claims that positive science fiction is dead (io9).

I enjoyed some of the dystopian and post-apocalyptic films & books myself like "Blade Runner", "Mad Max" and the novel "A Canticle for Leibowitz" by Walter M. Miller, Jr. But I would like to have more selection and a more balanced view of the future.

It seems that movie makers, authors and publishers are catering the pessimistic Zeitgeist (driveby). It looks like that many people are pessimistic and the producers of dystopian films & books deliver what their audience - the market - wants. Risks are overblown; chances are downplayed and the current fears - founded or not - are extrapolated into the future.

Dystopian movies and books also bank on a general fear of science and technology, a modern form of luddism. Scientists are often described as evil and mad, often they are pictured as tools for sinister powers. I think this trend could foster an unhealthy snowball effect; gloomy visions of the future could amplify the current pessimism, making depressive people even more depressive and foster an anti-science sentiment.

The dystopians often refer to the decline of the Roman Empire which lead to the dark ages in Europe (through the 15th century). But during Europe´s decline in Middle East Arabian cultures peaked and in China the Tang Dynasty flourished (618–907 AD), which is generally regarded as a high point in Chinese civilization: a golden age of cosmopolitan culture (wikipedia). There was no general decline of human culture, at least not in the last 2000 years.

                                                                      Irrational Fears

I believe that the general pessimism about the future - and the cult of dystopian - is irrational. The future isn`t bleak, things don´t get worse all the time. Quite contrary, history tells us that human conditions have been improving over the time. Life in the 16th century - and before - was miserable but it got slowly better. In the 19th century the improvements gained speed and have been been accelerating since then (mauldin). For instance child labor disappeared in the Western countries and vaccines for tubercolosis, tetanus, diptheria & other diseases were discovered (Timeline). In Western Europe and the U.S. even the welfare recipients have a higher life standard than average people at the beginning of the last century, including TVs and refrigerators.

Around 100 years ago (naute):
- The average life expectancy in the United States was just 47 (forty-seven) years.
- There were no insulin and antibiotics
- The average working week in US manufacturing was around 55 hours (visualeconsite)
- Only 14 percent of the homes in the United States had a bathtub.
- Only 8 percent of the homes had a telephone. A three minute call from Denver to New York City cost eleven dollars.
- There were only 8,000 cars in the US and only 144 miles of paved roads.
- The maximum speed limit in most cities was ten mph
- Planes were highly risky and flown just by adventurers
- There existed no radio broadcasting. TV was just science fiction.


Today we work much less and consume a lot of things and services that didn`t even exist in the first half of the 20th century. We all benefit from technological advances & entrepreneurship which have been boosting productivity, cmfort and wealth. And the progress is still accelerating. Almost any day something new comes up which makes our life more comfortable: Self-driving cars will have fewer accidents; Internet connected watches will help to monitore out health; in 2013 the first kidney grew in vitro in the U.S. and the first human liver grew from stem cells in Japan (wikipedia).

There is no reason that the positive historical trend should stop or reverse its course. Humans have always found ways to achieve a better life - for themselves and for others. And the fear of science and technology is irrational. Scientists gave us penicilin, antibiotica and insulin, they laid the foundations for cars, trains and planes and they created electrocardiography, laser, computers, Internet and all the other technologies which make our lives safer and more comfortable.

I believe that coming generations will live even longer and healthier thanks to science and technological progress (forbes). They will benefit from new medicaments; nanotochnology will create new and better materials, including carbon fibers that are much stronger & less heavy than steal; 3D printing will make many things much cheaper; stem cell therapy will treat or prevent more and more diseases.

I will still enjoy some well made dystopian films & books, but I want more science fiction that shows that people will be capable to solve problems in the future as they did in the past.





 

Contemporary Art: Hot Dry Men/Cold Wet Women @ Mark Miller Gallery, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Are you interested in contemporary art? Do you enjoy cutting edge works? Do weird & funny paintings & sculptures entertain you? Then you might come to New York`s Lower East Side. There are dozens of cool art galleries who display new trends and fashions of the art world.

Yesterday I visited Mark Miller Gallery (92 Orchard Street markmiller), one of the hottest places of New York´s vibrant art scene (here my reports about last year´s shows there driveby contemporary ).

They have a new group show called "Hot Dry Men/Cold Wet Woman" (through March 6, 2015). According to their website the title is based on a quote from 17th century (“It being therefore granted, that the Temperament of Man is hot and dry, and that of the Woman cold and moist, we are now to consider, what dispositions these raise in the Soul, and what constitution the whole body receives from them.”-Marin Cureau de la Chambre, 1665).
 

Anyway, I indulged into the variety of the displayed works and their humor. This post´s illustrations start with a view into their window,  followed by "Carousel" by Diana Corvelle (Gouache on paper) and Mark Polyakov`s "Fire Air Water" (Acrylic on canvas).

Above this paragraph you can see "Play" by Alyssa Monks (Oil on panel); Amy Goodwin`s "See Through Flowers IV" (Ink (airbrush) and acrylic) &"The Horsemen" by Lauren Woods (Oil on wood).

Jaz Harold created the scultpure "Geode" (Mixed media). Scarry!

                                   Wavefunction Collapse

                                                              

Joseph Venutura`s "Wavefunction collapse" (Oil on canvas) sounds like one of these weird quantum mechanical effects. The painting could illustrate a science fiction story. Who trapped this men inside the bottle? Will they ever get out?

"Mountain dance" by Thomas John Carlson (Oil on linen) could tell another story. Maybe some partially invisible witches are worshipping a vulcano.

"Two If By Sea", also by Thomas John Carlson (Oil on linen) displays another riddle.

Diana Corvelle`s "Protective shell" (Goutache on paper) might show a couple of meermaids. Are they twins or clones?
Jansson Stegner`s, Two Brothers (Oil on linen) could portrait two princes, who are daydreaming about saving virgins from a dragon.

Joseph Ventura`s 2 paintings "Polchinski`s Paradox (Casual timeline)" & "Polchinski`s Paradox (Effectual timeline)" (both Oil on linen) could tell another science fiction story, maybe about time travelers.

Above you can see "Torso" by Aaron Holz (Oil, resin and acrylic on panel). Below more details from the gallery window.

Enjoy!

Commodities: Oil - The Fairy Tale Of A V-Shaped Recovery

(Drivebycuriosity) -  The price of oil jumped around 20% in the last 2 weeks - the greatest leap since 1998, reports Reuters (reuters). It seems that hedge funds and other speculators are betting on a v-shaped recovery of the oil price, which is still around 50% below the levels from last summer.

Some oil speculators refer to the period 2009-2010, when oil prices recovered quickly after the sharp drop in the 2nd half of 2008. They also might be in inspirited by the v-shaped recoveries we saw on the stock market in the recent months.

The oil speculation got sparked by the falling number of us oil rigs. Last week the rig count declined by 83 to 1,140 (business). This is down from a peak of 1,609 hit in October 2014. The drop in the rig count fanned speculation that US oil production, which is a major cause for the current oil glut on the markets and the recent drop of oil prices, will shrink soon. The funny thing is, nobody cared about the rig count as the numbers were rising (from around 2006 until last summer). Why is the falling number so important, but the rising number didn`t count?

The media also claim that the oil rally was fueled by positive news about the general economy, for instance the strong job numbers from yesterday. But this is humbug. The sharp oil price rise in 2009 and 2010 slowed down the global economy considerably and was the main cause that the recovery was so disappointing. And the strong economic growth from 1982 until 2000 was accompanied by low oil prices. It seems that cheap energy goes with strong economic growth, while expensive energy goes with a sluggish economy.


  


                                                      Typical Snowball Effect


The sharp price gains attracted more speculators who`s purchases drove the oil price even higher - a typical snowball effect. We have seen this phenomena often before, especially in the first half of 2008 - when the oil price exploded to $148 - and then again in 2009 and 2010 as climbing oil prices caused more price gains.

I assume that the oil rally is ill founded and created just another bubble.  US production continued to climb in January, in spite of the much hyped falling rig count (markets). And US oil inventories are in a sharp upward trend and rose on new record levels (bespoke).

If the rally would continue it would soon slow down the idling of the oil rigs, because many oil rigs are still be profitable with $50 oil. (bloomberg) Maybe some of the shut down rigs would come back. Furthermore, the oil glut, which has caused the price drop, will continue because of the climbing production from Iraq, Iran, Russia and other oil producers (seekingalpha). And if Saudi Arabia wants to get rid of the US competition, as their speakers claim, then a continous oil rally would be against their interests, meaning that they could expand their oil production to bring the price down.

I think that the aggressive oil speculation will be frustrated by the fundamental numbers and oil prices will resume their dive soon.