Monday, October 4, 2021

Covid-19: Why The Next Wave Is Already In The Making


 (Drivebycuriosity) -   The world is still fighting against Covid-19. Fortunately in the US the numbers of new infections & hospitalizations are falling again. But I fear that the next wave is already in the making.

The number of fully vaccinated Americans is way too low. In the US are only 55% percent fully vaccinated, in Great Britain 66%, in Germany 64%, and the vaccination came almost to a standstill ( ourworldindata ).

To make things worse - the immunization effect is waning over the time. That means that some of the fully vaccinated person can get infected and the risk of a breakthrough infection is higher the earlier the vaccination was administered (wfla.com  twitter). In the coming months people who got fully vaccinated in Spring will have a rising infection risk. The high percentage of unvaccinated people raises this risk.

 

 


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 ( source )


We can observe this development already in Great Britain where the number of new infections stagnates on a high level even though two-thirds of the Brits are already fully vaccinated (chart above). UK was very early and vaccinated a large part of the population before May  ( twitter). We can see a similar  development in Germany, albeit on a lower level. 

Given the low number of vaccinated Americans and a general complacency (not wearing masks, ignoring social distance) the next wave is around the corner.

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