Economics: Will Trump Bring Inflation Back?

 

  (Drivebycuriosity) - America´s political landscape has changed again. The enemies of the new President claim that he will bring inflation back. But during Trump´s first regency there was no inflation, it happened under Biden (chart above economics).

We learned from Milton Friedman that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” and inflation happens "when too much money chases too few goods". The causal relationship between money supply and inflation was already recognized by Nicolaus Copernicus.

The astronomer explained in the year 1517 why "too much money" causes inflation. Copernicus` "quantity theory of money" is based on observations: Early in the 16th century Spain conquered today`s Latin America and looted the silver stocks. The Spaniards send the precious metal to Europe where is was printed into coins and used as money.

As a result the European money supply jumped, meeting a restrained supply of goods & services. The flood of money raised suddenly the demand for scarce goods & services and caused a jump of the price level.

Elaborated studies by Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer and many other economists (known as Monetarists) described already in the 1960s how and why the inflation rate follows the growth rate of money with a time lag (causal connection).

 

                               Helicopter Money

The recent inflation was caused by a deluge of money.  In 2020 & 2021 the Biden government flooded the economy with stimulus checks in the value of trillions of dollars to fight the Covid19 recession (American Rescue Plan). The government checks got financed by massive bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (Quantitative Easing known as QE1,QE2 & QE3).  

The government money landed directly on the bank accounts of the Americans, blowing up the money volume M2 (bank notes & coins & deposits at banks). Milton Friedman described this as helicopter money (cato ). As a result in 2021 & 2022 the US money supply M2, the engine of the inflation, jumped 40% (chart below). The money deluge met a constrained supply of goods & services partly - partly because of Covid19.

 

 ( source)

Fortunately the money flood ended already in 2022 and the money supply shrank for a while. Since October 2023 the money volume is growing again, but only moderately. Since inflation follows the growth of money, the inflation rate (growth rate of prices) will follow the pull of the slowly growing money supply and the inflation rate will stay low.

The Trump inflation claim is based on economic illiteracy and ignorance of history.

Photography: Late Fall In Tompkins Square Park

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Winter is coming. But the late days of Fall have their own charm. During a short walk through the little Tompkins Square Park (East Village, Manhattan) I enjoyed the moody atmosphere and the still colorful vegetation. 

 

I took some pics which I proudly present here.

Stay tuned

Books: Hiero`s Journey By Sterling E. Lanier

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - The 1970s were the years of the Cold War. Everyone was afraid of a possible devastating nuclear conflict between the West and the Soviet Union. The fear about an atomic holocaust inspired many writers, who speculated about how life will be after the Armageddon. Walter M. Miller`s "A Canticle for Leibowitz" is the most famous and maybe the best of the post-nuclear war novels.

The book "Hiero`s Journey" by Sterling E. Lanier, published in 1973, is another take on this subject, a modern fairy tale ( amazon). The plot is set about 5,000 years after the disaster. The nuclear strikes had changed everything. More than 5 millennia of radical radiation extremely altered the genetics on earth, it created bizarre new life forms and converted surviving humanity and animals into something different. Like in "Canticle for Leibowitz" there are some abbeys which are oases of civilization and try to recover humanity, but in this novel also science blends with telepathy and precognition, as a result of the genetic alterations.

The protagonist is a kind of priest, but also a highly educated killer; very smart and possesses growing telepathic powers. He gets the order to travel south to discover machines from the pre Armageddon era which could help to rekindle civilization. 

He is accompanied by a morse, a breed between a moose and a horse, a slightly intelligent and a bit telepathic animal, and later he will get more companions. The protagonist makes a lot encounters, some benign, but others are very vicious and strange. "There were perils everywhere, but a wise man tried to balance the lesser against the greater".

The book advances like a computer game: The challenges are getting more and more severe, and the protagonist learns from his encounters, he adapts to them and is getting stronger. "The priest learned early that exact knowledge was the only real weapon against a savage and uncertain world".

I had a lot of fun because the author has a rich fantasy and develops bizarre environments & life forms. "Then ghastly cosmic forces unleashed by The Death had made the mingling of strange life possible and being had grown and thought which should never have known the breath of life". The telepathic communications with  the animals read a bit like Dr. Doolittle - but they sound plausible in this setting - and there is a lot humor and also a little bit romance.

Maybe someday Netflix, Hula, Prime or Max will discover the novel and turn it into a fascinating TV series.

Art Market: Tidbits From Fall Auctions 2024 @ Christie`s

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - It`s November again and the world`s largest auction houses have their annual huge fall auctions in Manhattan. This post focuses on the auction galleries @ Christie`s ( christies). As usual quality & quantity of the displayed art works was overwhelming and admission is free. I display here just my favorites, a very subjective selection as usual.

 

My favorites where 2 amazing works by Rene Magritte. Both are called "L'empire des lumières" (1956 & 1954).

But I also loved their contemporary art. Above you can see Cecily Brown´s “The Butcher and the Policeman” (2013, oil on linen); Hernan Bas`"Tartini's Dream (The Devil's Trill)" (2012, acrylic, airbrush and block print on linen) & Denzil Forrester`s “Street Music” (1989, oil on linen).

 

I was glad to spot 2 works by Neo Rauch. I am a fan of his surreal compositions: "Heilstätten" (2011, oil on canvas) & "Märzarbeit" (2015, oil on paper).

 

Above Michael Kagan´s "In the Beginning" (2016, oil on linen). In 2022 I posted about a Kagan exhibition in London that showed similar images (here ).

I am fascinated by Marlene Dumas`surprising images. Above her "Stage Fright" (1992, oil on canvas).

I also like George Condo´s funny compositions: “The Executives and Their Wives” (2011, oil, acrylic, charcoal and pastel on linen".

What story does Salman Toor`s  "Garden Party" (2018, oil on canvas) tell us?

 

There exist too many abstracts I believe. Many are indistinguishable and are poor Rothko copies. But Ed Clark`s powerful “Untitled” (1995, acrylic on canvas) is unique.

 

I spotted Eric Fishl`s "The Old Man´s Boat and the Old Man`s Dog" already at Christie´s Spring auctions 2022 ( driveby). Now the painting is back.

 

Above this paragraph follow: “Portrait of Mitzi Sigall” by Salvador Dali (1948, oil on canvas); "Gone Fishing" by Sasha Gordon (2019, acrylic on canvas); "Touching Toes" by Joan Semmel (2019, oil on canvas) & “The he spies on the I” by Joseph Yaeger (2020, watercolor on gessoed canvas)

 Above: Daniel Richter´s "Tarifa" (2001, oil on canvas); Thomas Schütte´s "Großer Doppelkopf" (2017, glazed ceramic with steel pedestal) & Christina Quarles`"Moon (Lez Go Out N'Feel Tha Nite)" (2017, acrylic on canvas).

 

Last but not least: Andre Lhote`s "La Bacchante ou Nu allongé dans un paysage" (1911, oil on burlap) & Fernando Botero`s "Playroom" (1970, oil on canvas).

Stay tuned!

Art Market: Tidbits From Fall Auctions 2024 @ Phillips New York

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  It`s November again and the world`s largest auction houses have their annual huge fall auctions in Manhattan. This post is about the galleries @ Phillips, the number 3 of the global auction houses (phillips ). The company has the reputation to be more focused on contemporary works than her bigger competitors and to show more cutting edge art by up-and-coming artists. But they also had some big names. I display here some of my favorites from the exhibition - as usual a very subjective selection.

 

 

Above you can see Jean-Michel Basquiat`s “Exercisio” (1984, acrylic and colored pencell on canvas); Hernan Bas`"Untitled (Dating Pool)" (2003, water-based oil on panel) & Susumu Kamlo`s “Summer Holiday” (2021 Flashe on canvas)

 

Above follow Richard Prince’s “Untitled (De Kooning)” (2006-2007, acrylic and inkjet on canvas); Issy Wood`s “Eggplant / car interior” (2019, oil on velvet) &
Wilhelm Sasnal´s “Face” (2011, oil on canvas).

Above: Stefanie Heinze’s "Rear (Falling Leaf)" (2019 acrylic and oil on canvas); Lisa Brice’s “Untitled (Diptych)” (2020, oil on tracing paper); Jess Valice’s “Dancing Free with Mr. D.”  (2021, oil on canvas) & Sonia Gechtoff`s “In the Red” (2016, acrylic and graphite on canvas).

 

Above follow: Lynette Yiaom-Boak`s “Watcher” (2011, oil on canvas); Tomokazu Matsuyama`s “November Through the Ages” (2014, acrylic and mixed media on canvas) & Georg Baselitz`s “Der Brief von der Front (Laktionov)” (1998, oil on canvas).

The surrealist Dorothea Tanning belongs to my favorite painters. In 2019 I posted about an amazing exhibition at the Tate Modern ( here). Above her "Status Quo" (1965, oil on canvas).

Last but not least: Jackson Pollock.
 

To be continued

 

Art Market: Tidbits From Fall Auctions 2024 @ Sotheby`s New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) -  It`s November again and the world`s largest auction houses have their annual huge fall auctions in Manhattan. This post focuses on Contemporary Art  @ Sotheby`s (sothebys ). As usual quality & quantity of the displayed art works were overwhelming and admission was free. I display here just my favorites, a very subjective selection.

 

Above you can see the wonderful "Sky for Mina" by Janaina Tschäpe (2016, casein and pastel on canvas, 78 by 91 ⅜ in) followed by Ali Banisadr`s “Aleph” (2013, oil on linen, 66 by 88 in,187.6 by 224 cm).
.

Above follows the spectacular and weird “The Madhouse” by Kent Monkman (2020, 84 by 132 in. 213.4 by 335.3 cm). Angels as prison guards? Maybe in the Vatican State?
 

 

Above you can see "$8.99 Per Unit" by Sayre Gomez (2022,  acrylic on canvas, 144 by 84 in. 365.8 by 213.4 cm).
 

 

Above follows Jeff Koons`famous "Woman in Tube" (Porcelain, 23 ¾ by 36 by 27 in. 60.3 by 91.4 by 68.6 cm. Executed in 1988, this work is number 3 of an edition of 3 plus 1 artist's proof). What`s going on here?

 

Above this paragraph you can see Roy Lichtenstein´s delicate nudes: "Nude with Blue Hair"; "Nude with Pyramid (Studio)"; "Nude with Yellow Pillow"; "Roommates" plus a kneeling nude. Enjoy!

 

                         Buried On Sunday

 

2 more weird images: Miriam Cahn`s “O.T.” (2017, oil on canvas, 76 ¾ by 70 ⅞ in.194.8 by 180 cm) & Pol Taburet`s “Buried on a Sunday” (2021, acrylic, oil pastel and alcohol-based paint on canvas, 63 by 78 ¾ in, .160 by 200 cm).

I love the mood in John Koch`s "Conversation-Nightlight (1954, oil on canvas). Like a scene in an old movie.

 

I also spotted a lot great modern art (late 19th century through WWII) and surrealists: Raoul Dufy`s "Nu couché L `Atelier De la Rue Jeanne DÀrc" (1942 ); Antonia Gattorno`s “Retrato De Mi Madre (1942) & “Italian Landscape (1944 ); Jean Dunand`s “Parfum”  (1927) & Lenor Fini `s “Les Stylites” (1976).

Last but not least 2 beauties: Robert Henri`s "Irish Girl"(1928) & Guy Pene Du Bois`”Diane”

To be continued

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