Heavy Metal: Cloak, Uada & 1349 - Inferno @ Saint Vitus New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Do you like really intense heavy metal? Then you might enjoy bands like Cloak, Uada & 1349. On Monday I watched these bands playing @ Saint Vitus, a tiny venue somewhere in Brooklyn, New York (I would call it a hole in the wall).

The evening started with Cloak from Atlanta, Georgia, who performed a dark & violent show. Then followed Uada, who came from Portland, Orgeon. I agree with a commentator who praised the "cracking thunder" created by "haunting guitars, groaned vocals, and booming drums" (kerrang ).   

But I also enjoyed that all that noise combined into beautiful melodies. The band wore jet-black outfits & hoods and the stage was dark, filled with thick fog. Everything fit together and created the perfect atmosphere.

1349, who came from Norway, continued the inferno. Their name refers to the year when the plague came to their home country. Again fierce growls & furious instruments shook the room. The Norwegians impressed with a brutal & breathtaking show with an incredible intensity. Thanks to  Cloak, Uada & 1349 for this evening.

Stock Market: Why The Bull Market Is Still Alive And Kicking

(Drivebycuriosity) - The bull market for stocks, which started in spring 2009, is alive and kicking. The new all time high for the S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, confirms that. On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 676.53. Since then, the market value has more than quadrupled. Once we include dividends, it’s up fivefold (crossingwallstreet). We are enjoying the longest and strongest bull market in history, fueled by a growing global economy, technological progress - especially the advance of e-commerce - and climbing company profits.

(source )

The chart below shows that bull markets (stocks gain at least 20% from a former low) are normal and bear markets (stocks drop at least 20%) are just a temporary aberrations. Obviously the perpetual climbing stock prices (with short interruptions) reflect two longtime trends: A growing global economy & rising  company profits.

( source)


In the recent 2 years the stock market got some headwinds from the escalating trade war between the US and China which has been harming manufacturing in both countries. Therefore in 2018 US stocks dropped and the bull market got a severe test (driveby). But recently we got signs that the trade war could be restricted which reawoke the rally. There are also some tailwinds from low interest rates and relatively cheap oil.

I claim that we are in a secular bull market that could even dwarf the stock market bonanza from 1982 till 2000 when the Dow Jones rose from just 800 points to around 10,000 points. My claim is mainly based on four arguments:

1. Company profits will continue their solid growth. During the recessions of the years 2001/02 and in 2008 companies restructured and reduced costs significantly in order to survive. Now they are much fitter and more efficient than before. I believe that this learning process will continue and will translate into a long term trend of rising company profits.

2. We are experiencing a new industrial revolution.  Advances in Internet, mobile computing, 3-d-printing, robotics, nano- & biotechnology and other technologies are reducing costs, raising efficiency and creating new markets.

3. Reduced taxes and less regulation in the US will also support the growth of the company earnings.

4. We are having solid tailwinds from the emerging markets which are even getting stronger. The catching-up process in China (which is still growing about 6%), India, Indonesia and a lot of other countries translates into high growth in large parts of the global economy that creates continuously rising revenues & profits for global companies like Starbucks, IBM, Caterpillar, Apple, Microsoft, Google and other members of the S&P 500.

To be continued 

Science Fiction: Why Ted Chiang`s "Exhalation" Belongs Into Any Serious Library Of Contemporary Literature

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Ted Chiang belongs to my favorite contemporary science fiction authors  (here my list of favorites ). While many scifi authors write serial novels to make a living specializes the Chinese-American  in short stories & novellas and publishes them infrequently. In the past 28 years, he’s released 17 short stories and novellas (gq.com). The frugality seems to support the quality, Chiang collected a lot prestigious awards and his novella "Story of Your Live" was turned into the movie "Arrival". Recently Chiang published his second book: "Exhalation" ( amazon).  This book is again a collection of short stories like the first book "Stories of Your Life and Others" from 2002.

"Exhalation"  isn´t quite as strong as "Stories of Your Life", which is outstanding. I missed the wow-effect of "Tower of  Babylon", the genius of "Story of Your Live", the weird humor of "Hell is the Absence of God" and the magic & thrill of  "Seventy-Two Letters", but Chiang`s new book is still ahead of the competition. 

The anthology is a masterpiece of modern hard science fiction, more Franz Kafka than Jules Verne. The 9 short stories & novellas - covering a spectrum of scifi sub-genres - are brilliant thought experiments blending pure logic with entertainment & philosophy. Chiang belongs to the few talents who can translate cutting edge physics into gripping stories.


"Anxiety is the Dizziness of Freedom" is my favorite.  In a near term future people can communicate with parallel universes and talk with their selves in other timelines thanks to devices run by quantum physics. Chiang used contemporary physics - including quantum mechanic phenomena, probability & many-worlds theory  - to create a fascinating tale about decision making, fate and more. He described plausible how these alleged quantum phenomena work and how they affect human emotions and behavior. Chiang`s precise but readable style reminded me of Steve Hawkings` "A Brief History of Time" and Nancy Kress`brilliant "Probability Moon" trilogy.  

I also enjoyed the other stories, including "Exhalation", which is set in a bizarre universe inhabited by people who have an extremely different metabolism. Again Chiang used basic laws of physics (I don´t tell which, this is spoiler free blog) and bend them into a kafkaesk tale.

The novella "The Lifecycle of Software Objects" is set in a near term future and follows software engineers who develop and sell cute artificial intelligence, virtual pets who are able to learn and to evolve. The story tells how developers and owners interact with these artificial beings and how these relationships influence their lives. The analytical but also emotional plot is a fascinating speculation about AIs and their role in the near future.   

"Omphallos" is set in a parallel universe where the fundamental Christian believe in the fable of creationism seems to be backed by science.

"Exhalation" is not only top-notch science fiction, the anthology belongs into any serious library of contemporary literature.

Economics: Why Do The Experts Underestimate The Earnings Power Of The Companies?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The earnings season is in a full swing. To date, 40% of the companies in the S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, have reported actual results for the third quarter of 2019. 80% beat the earnings expectations of the analysts, reports FacSet (factset).  Together the reported company profits are 3.8% above the estimates.

The numbers show that the analysts are too pessimistic. Apparently they underestimate the fact that there is a strong perpetual trend of rising company earnings. The companies which are collected in the S&P 500 are getting more efficient & more productive over time - thanks to learning processes and the technological progress. Companies are learning organisms because they are managed by humans who are continuously improving themselves and their companies. During the recession 2008 companies had restructured and reduced costs significantly in order to survive. Now they are more fit & more efficient than before.

Company earnings are also boosted by automation.  Since the early 18th century (the first industrial revolution) the technological process has been enabling companies to produce more goods & services with the same amount of employees. More and better machines (robots) are doing the work of people which translates into lower costs, higher profit margins and climbing earnings.

 (source)

It seems that this process is accelerating again and we are at the begin of new industrial revolution. We are experiencing a rapid advance of information technology, meaning combinations of computers, smartphones, Internet and other digital systems. Software - which is increasingly Internet connected and uses more and more the cloud (access to huge external data centers) - organizes the whole business: Creating new products, inducing machines to run more efficient, finding cheap suppliers, manage customer relations and so on. Car producers and many other manufacturers are increasingly using robots and similar machines to reduce their costs. Companies are also beginning to use 3D-printers to become more cost efficient and flexible.

Company profits are also boosted by the rise of the emerging markets. China, India & Co. create additional markets. Therefore companies can produce more which translates into shrinking average production costs (economies of scale). Emerging markets also deliver cheap supplies (most computers, tablets & smartphones are manufactured there) which reduces the production costs further.

I believe that the learning process will continue and will translate into a long term trend of fast rising company earnings, the engine of the stock market rally.

Enjoy!   

Contemporary Art: Elliott Green`s Fantastic Landscapes @ Pierogi New York

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Contemporary art is full of discoveries. At gallery Pierogi on Manhattan´s Lower East Side I spotted an amazing exhibition. The art dealer shows paintings by Eliott Green. The show is called “Under the Map Room” (through 10 November, 2019  pierogi). I love these expressionist & powerful imagined landscapes. On top of this post you can see "Seismic Trill" (2019, Oil on linen, 32 x 40 inches).

Above follow“Zeus and Buddha” & “Under the Map Room” (both Oil on linen).

Above you can see "Tail Eater" & "Amygdala"

Some paintings have funny names: “Heavy Shit In Candy Land” & “Container".

Above "Halation" followed by "Waves and Vibrations"; "Attachment" & "Magnificent Dust"


To be continued

Contemporary Art: Illustrations Of The Big Bang @ Danese/Corey New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - I like to go to contemporary art galleries. There are so many discoveries to be made. At  Danese/Corey I saw an exhibition with amazing abstract paintings. They display paintings by the German artist Matthias Meyer (through November 9, 2019 danesecorey). Apparently most of these paintings refer to water surfaces, but for me they look like illustrations of the Big Bang.

 

Above you can see "Imado" - and a detail shot of it - (2016, oil on canvas, 55 x 110 inches (140x280cm).

Above "Palermo" (2019, oil on canvas, 39 x 78 inches (100x200cm).

The press release explains "Meyer’s painting method emulates the properties of water itself; diluted oil paint runs and falls across the canvas, investing the medium with the transparency and ephemeral qualities of watercolor".

To be continued

Economics: When Will It Occur To Trump That He Will Not Win His Trade War?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There are increasing signs that President Trump will not win his trade war against China. Yes, China reported last week that her economy is cooling and that her economic growth rate (GDP growth) slowed to 6% YoY. But the American economy is cooling too (graphs below). Apparently in the recent 12 months both countries got their growth rates cut by about one percent point each, China went from 6.8% to 6.0% and the US from 3.5% to 2.0%.

( source )

Trade war or not, China´s economy is still growing 3-times as fast as the American. Parts of the US economy are already shrinking, especially manufacturing. If the trade war continues - or even escalates - both economies will slow down even more and the US might reach a recession. American manufacturing may be already there. But China is much farther away from a recession - production is still growing about 5% and retail sales are expanding almost 8% (driveby). Remember that China escaped the global recession in 2008 and still grew about 10% (macrotrends). It seems that the US will need a depression to force China on her knees.

Does President Trump really want to drive the US into a recession or even worse? A severe recession might ruin his chance for getting reelected next year  China`s leader Xi Jinping, his opponent, does not have this problem. And Xi could blame a serious downturn to Trump and the trade war. If the President doesn`t get it, someone should tell him. That would save the global economy a lot of trouble.

Contemporary Art: Personal Private Public @ Hauser & Wirth New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) -Hauser & Wirth belongs to the global art dealing empires. Recently they opened their flagship building in Manhattan´s classy Chelsea district with some interesting exhibitions. I already reported about their Ed Clark abstracts show ( contemporary). They also have an interesting group exhibition, called "Personal Private Public" (hauserwirth). I display my favorites here, a very subjective selection as usual.

Above an image by an unknown artist followed by 2 paintings by Ivy Haldeman.

Above 2  images by Mira Schor: "Dicks, or the Impregnation of the Universe" & "Strange Fruit", each Oil on 21 canvases.

Above another Ivy Haldeman painting


To be continued

Economics: China Is Still Doing Better Than The Rest Of The World

(Drivebycuriosity) - Trump`s  trade war against China is slowing the US & the global economy. But the news from the economic front show that China is still doing better than the rest of the world. This morning we learned that China`s retail sales grew 7.8% YoY in September - better than in August (plus 7.5%) and industrial production advanced 5.8% after plus 4.4% (charts below).

(source )

( source)




The numbers prove that the huge country is continuing her secular catching-up process, trade war or not. China`s growth is inspired by extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation values. Today China has about $9,800  income per capita, the US number is $62,600  (worldbank). China doesn`t have much commodities but it owns a huge amount of human capital: 1.4 billion people who are intelligent, who work hard and save a lot money to achieve a better life. Wikipedia counted in 2014 already "2,236 colleges and universities, with over 20 million students enrolled in mainland China" (wikipedia). The fast expanding knowledge is driving science & innovation, raising productivity and fostering economic growth (washingtonpost). Chinese corporations, think tanks & administrations can employ a large number of highly dedicated & educated people - a strong driver of economic growth (scottsumner).

China`s growth is fueled by a rapid transformation process.  The country is transforming from an industrial & export-focused economy into a modern system like the US, where most of the GNP is fueled by consumer spending. In the US consumer spending is the engine of the economy. China is on the way to became a modern economy. Many peasants are moving to the huge metropolitan centers which are spread all over the huge country to lift their standard of living. This creates a fast rising affluent middle class, giving consumer spending a boost as the strong retail sales demonstrate.

The robust numbers from this morning suggest that China will weather this trade war better than her opponents think.

Science Fiction: The Engineer Reconditioned By Neil Asher

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - I like science fiction. Unfortunately most science fiction novels disappoint. Often a writer has an interesting idea which carries a story about maybe 100 pages or less, but when she stretches the plot the story gets thinner and thinner and the text has too many fillers. Just a minority of authors is capable to keep the tension over hundreds of pages. Therefore I usually skim collections of science fiction short stories in order to find some gems.

I just finished "The Engineer Reconditioned" by Neil Asher, a rising star on the sci-fi horizon (amazon). The books contains a collection of stories apparently written more than 20 years ago. They are all set in the same fictional far future universe and related to popular Asher novel series. My favorite is the name giving novella "The Engineer ". The crew of an interstellar research space ship picks up an escape pod that has been drifting for millions of years which causes a lot of events (this is a spoiler free blog). It`s a masterpiece of very hard science fiction with a lot of sophisticated but plausible technology & breath taking action - a fascinating space opera.

The #Snails" is about a man who travels inside a giant snail. The plot - which reminds me of Kafka - is full of fascinating ideas and spiced with interesting sex scenes.

Some stories are set on very exotic planets with dangerous & weird plants and animals: "Spatterjay", "Jable Sharks" & "The Thrake".

Asher has humor, plenty of surprising ideas and he can write. "The Engineer Reconditioned" is a fine introduction into Asher`s universes and in the moment of writing the Kindle version cost just $3.82.

Heavy Metal: Oranssi Pazuzu - Psychedelic Metal Inferno @ Poisson Rouge New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Heavy metal can be pure bliss. Yesterday`s concert by the Finnish band Oranssi Pazuzu @ Poisson Rouge in Manhattan belongs to these occasions. Oranssi is Finnish for Orange and Pazuzu is a Babylonian demon, known from the film "The Exorcist" (metal-archives). Nomen es Omen, the show seemed to be driven by demon power - extremely wild & explosive. Complex atmospheric parts, which invited the audience to meditate, changed into atonal elements and culminated then into sheer inferno.

Oranssi created tsunamis of sound which sucked the audience into their vortex. Yes, it could it be so if a mighty demon gets really angry. The light show intensified the demonic atmosphere with dark blue or red tones interrupted by stroboscopic flashes. Who needs drugs when a concert can create a mood which is called  "Rausch" in German, only pedestrian translated by intoxication. I saw Oranssi in Madrid 2 years ago with a strong show, they got even better since then.

I also enjoyed Insect Ark. the opener. Dana Schechter, accompanied by a percussionist, created on her electronic board very heavy & intense melodies, sometimes amplified by her deep tuned sludge guitar play.

Thanks to Oranssi Pazuzu & Insect Ark for this awesome experience.

Contemporary Art: The Sheer Beauty Of Raw Power - Richard Serra @ Gagosian, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - I am fascinated by Richard Serra, one of the most important contemporary artists (wikipedia). I indulge into his often massive works which display the sheer beauty of raw power.

Gagosian, one of the leading galleries of the world, has now new Serra exhibitions, called "Forged Rounds" & "Reserve Curve" on different locations (gagosian ).

Above some images from "Reserve Curve" @ 522 West 21st Street. What a beautiful monster!

Above and below images from "Forged Rounds" @ 555 West 24th Street.

To be continued