Science Fiction: Even The Gods By Isaac Asimov

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Isaac Asimov belonged to the ring of masters who developed the science fiction genre (Heinlein, Clark, Frederic Pohl). I just reread his novel "Even the Gods" ( amazon). The author borrowed the title from German dramatist Friedrich Schiller who wrote in a play about Joan of Arc "against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain".

The novel is based on particle physics and the Second Law of Thermodynamics - but with some fictional changes which are explained like in a physics text book (this is a spoiler free blog). 

The plot describes in 3 parts the conflict between those who want to continue a revolutionary technology and those who contend it because of the enormous risks. Each part has different characters. Some are very exotic and have peculiar relationships and erotics thanks to the fictional physics of the novel.

I enjoyed how Asimov described the struggle between academics, including the controversy about the moral implications of their decisions. And there is also a bit romance in it.

"Even the Gods" is brilliant, still cutting edge and much, much, much better than 99 percent of contemporary science fiction.

Contemporary Art: Tomoo Gokita & Charline Von Heyl @ Petzel New York

(Drivebycuriosity) - Visiting Chelsea, Manhattan`s fancy art district is always fun. There are so many classy galleries and there is always something to discover.

At Petzel on 25th Street I saw 2 interesting exhibitions. 

Above this paragraph you can see images by Tokyo-based artist Tomoo Gokita (petzel ).

Above and below follow images by Charline Von Heyl ( petzel).

To be continued

Economics: Why Artificial Intelligence Will Bring Us Closer To Basic Income

 

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot talk about basic income. Former Presidential candidate Andrew Yang for instance proposed to give all U.S. citizens ages 18 and over (about 250 million persons) $1,000 per month ( yang2020). The government would spend about $250 billion a month and $3 trillion a year!  

I fear this is not feasible today. It would also reduce the incentive to work and reduce the already tight labor supply.

But the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) will fundamentally change the economics. AI will raise productivity of almost any job and compensate for the labor shortage - at least partly. 

The increased productivity in manufacturing & many services will reduce prices for manufactured goods - and some services - significantly. It will boost wages in many occupations as well. Both trends translate into higher standards of living.

Higher productivity will also reduce costs in many industries and create higher profits which lead to stock market gains & higher dividends. 

These trends - higher wages, climbing dividends, enlarged profits & stock market valuations will boost the tax income of the government significantly in the comings years and so finance the costs of the basic income.

Welcome to the new world of AI.

Contemporary Art: Julian Schnabel @ Pace Gallery New York

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Julian Schnabel has many sides. The American artist is known for his ambitious movies (including "Basquiat", "At Eternity´s Gate" & "Before Night Fall") and for his painting and sculptures as well. 

Pace Gallery in Manhattan´s Chelsea district displays Schnabel`s newest velvet paintings which are influenced by the works of Titian, Goya, other Old Masters and the altars of Renaissance & Baroque churches across southern Europe (pacegallery ). The show is called "Bouquet of Mistakes".

On top of this post you can see his the ten-panel "Buñuel Awake (for Jean-Claude Carrière)" or "Bouquet of Mistakes" (2022).

 

Above this paragraph follow paintings all called "The Nine Skies and the Mountain Fortress" with different Roman numbers (2023, oil, bleach on velvet in artist's frame).

 

 

 

 To be continued

Economics: Why Are Online Retail Sales So Disappointing?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot talk about the rise of online sales. Unfortunately there are no official data for the US. The Americans publish data about baseball, football and other sports but not about Internet usage. Fortunately the British government delivers monthly numbers for "Internet sales as a percentage of total retail sales". Anyway I assume that the trends in the US are not very different from the UK.

The image above shows that the UK had a trend of climbing Internet sales as percentage of total retail ( ons.gov.uk). From 2006 through 2019, before the Covid 19 pandemic started, this number rose from 2.5% to 21%, on average about 1.4 percent points per year. Then came the Covid 19 pandemic and forced many to shop at home, boosting the online sales. In January 2021 the share of the British online sales peaked at 37.8%.

 

 

But since Covid 19 disappeared from of the headlines the online sales dropped, at least in percent of total retail sales. The image above amplifies the recent 4 years - influenced by the pandemic. In the recent 12 months the number stagnated at 25.3% (September 2022 25.2&).

The slowdown surprised me. I had expected that the pandemic will change the behavior of the shoppers and online sales will continue their relative growth on a higher level. The numbers disagree. 

Apparently people stick with their habits. People forgot about Covid and the advantages of online sales and went back to physical shops, at least party. Barnes & Nobles is opening new book shops in the US and others too (timeout ). It seems that the majority still ignores the time and costs of shopping and the risks of Covid infections.

This relativizes also the alleged market power of online sellers which is part of the huge lawsuit by America`s antitrust agency FTC against Amazon ( driveby).

Science Fiction: Why H.G. Wells Is Overrated And Jules Verne Underrated

  (Drivebycuriosity) - The British author H.G. Wells (1866-1946) is often considered as the father of science fiction. I doubt it. I think Wells is overrated and the French writer Jules Verne (1828-1905) deserves the title.

When I read Wells` novella "Time Travel" (published 1895) decades ago I was irritated. Did I read the wrong book? The protagonist traveled far into the future and whom did he meet? Cannibalistic cavemen, the "Morlocks"! How could (will?) humans so regress? The book tells a travel to the stone age, not to the future.

Wells wrote a lot horror and other fantasy novels. His story "The War of the Worlds" (published 1898) described an attack from Mars! Today the planet is known as inanimate. Wells` novel "The Invisible Man" (published 1897) fantasizes about invisibility. A fairy tale. Wells wrote fiction, there was no science in it. 

Wells` dark fantasies are not surprising. They are based on his personality and his view of the world. Wells was a pessimist, socialist and an admirer of Stalin & Communist systems ( wikipedia).

Jules Verne was quite the opposite. The French author was an optimist, he believed in the future and embraced science and technology. Verne invented a new kind of novel, a "Roman de la Science" ("novel of science"), which allowed him to incorporate large amounts of the factual information he discovered while researching in the Bibliothèque ( wikipedia).

I agree with one blogger who wrote, Verne´s "blending of the real, the fantastic, and scientifically-grounded extrapolations led him to describe inventions and circumstances that were over a century away from becoming reality: among other things, he descriptively predicted video conferencing, lunar modules, and, arguably, the geopolitical struggle for control of resources in the Arctic" (sweatpantsandcoffee ).

In Verne`s science-fictional stage play "Journey through the Impossible" the hero "goes to the center of the Earth in the first act, to the bottom of the seas in the second act, and to the Planet Altor in the third" (jv.gilead.org. ). 

Verne`s  novel "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas" described Captain Nemo's underwater ship, the Nautilus, which had many features of today's submarines. And his most famous novel, "'Around the World in Eighty Days" shows optimism and can do attitude as well. I believe that these works inspired later science fiction authors like Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov & Arthur C. Clarke who shared Verne´s positive thinking and belief in technology.

Verne´s novels and stage plays were immense popular and influenced the thinking in Europe in the 19th century. The author inspired positive thinking and belief in science, technology & the future. No surprise that David McCullough, the author of "The Path between then Seas", the history of Panama Canal construction, mentions Verne multiple times ( driveby).

Wells was a talented creator of entertaining fantasy & horror stories, Verne was a visionary who melted sciences and fiction into science fiction.

Contemporary Art: Bright Light Shining @ Gladstone Gallery New York

(Drivebycuriosity) - Contemporary art is full of surprises. During a walk through Chelsea`s classy art district I discovered a peculiar show @ Gladstone Gallery. The art dealer displays work by Ugo Rondinone. The show is called "bright light shining".

 

The press release declares: "Painted in bright, dayglo yellow, the bronze light sculptures depict the crooked and rhythmic lines that form strikes of lightning, creating tangible and static representations of these miraculous experiences and awe-inspiring phenomena" ( gladstonegallery).

 

 

To be continued

Books: The English And Their History By Robert Tombs

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  I am German and I like England. The country of Enid Blyton, Agatha Christie, The Rolling Stones, Pink Floyd, The Sex Pistols & Margarete Thatcher. And I love London, a megalopolis with a very peculiar mix of different cultures. So I wanted to know more about the island and read "The English And Their History" by Robert Tombs ( amazon). The 1074 pages were exhausting but I learned a lot:

 
- After the demise of the Romans (about 400 AD) England needed around 600 years to come back to a kind of organization & civilization.

- Before 1100 AD England was vulnerable to many invasions, including the Romans, Vikings &  the French. But the French invasion (1066 by William the Conqueror ) was the last the island suffered.

- In the begin of the second millennium England had mostly a French culture and people spoke French. Before the Tudors the Kings were all French, they were born in France, lived mostly there and died there.

- England developed very slowly into a democracy by gradually reducing the power of kings & queens, starting with the Magna Carta (1215). So England could avoid the bloody & messy revolutions many other European countries suffered.

- The   bubonic plague (1348 Black Death ) raised living standards of the survivors significantly because a reduced workforce caused higher wages and the diminished population lowered the demand for food and cut food prices.

 - In the middle of the 19th century England adapted to free trade which reduced import & food prices and raised so standard of living. Free trade also supported economic growth.

- The industrial revolution did not cause poverty and slums - which is often stated - instead it created jobs and raised incomes and helped so England to adapt to a sudden population explosion caused by a better health care

-  Margaret Thatcher, who had saved nation from immanent collapse, was accused by her many enemies, even inside her party, that she had maliciously ravaged a harmonious and humane society and was kicked out of office by the ungrateful Tories.

Conclusion: In the recent 1000 years England had a round trip from being a not very important island to a global empire and back to not very important island.

And Tombs concluses those "who have lived in England since 1945 have been among the luckiest people in the existence of Homo Sapiens, rich, peaceful and healthy." 

Economics: Is Amazon A Monopoly?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The Biden Administration, represented by the Federal Trade Committee (FTC), America`s antitrust body, filed a huge law suit against Amazon. The suit is based on the claim that Amazon is a monopoly.

The word "monopoly" combines the Greek terms "mónos", meaning "single" or "alone" with the word "pōleîn", meaning "to sell" (wikipedia ). Economists use the term "monopoly" when there is just one seller (the monopolist) and there are no competitors. Doesn´t Amazon have competitors?

In 2017 FTC Chair Khan, then just a law student, published her famous paper: "Amazon`s Antitrust Paradox" ( yalelawjournal). The Khan claimed that Amazon will become a monopolist ( reason   yalelawjournal  driveby). She declared that Amazon´s prices are "too low" (!), which will drive competitors out of business and will hinder potential competitors to emerge. She was wrong, the number of Amazon competitors grew worldwide.

The law suit repeats Khan`s monopoly claim, which contravenes facts. Amazon experiences a strong and growing competition. In the second quarter 2023 Amazon`s online shops advanced just 5% Y-o-Y , while Walmart`s e-commerce segment expanded 24% and e-commerce platform Shopify´s revenues jumped 31% ( cnbc  ir.aboutamazon shopify). Both are eating Amazon´s market share, at least parts of it.

 

 

 (source )

 

                      Parallel Universe?

Khan`s law suit also ignores innovative newcomers who are aggressively entering the highly competitive market. In September the Chinese online service TikTok launched its e-commerce shop, called TikTok Shop, in the U.S. "in an effort to translate the app’s cultural relevance among young consumers to sales" ( apnews). More than 200,000 sellers have already registered for the TikTok Shop!

And the Chinese shopping app Temu is rapidly gaining ground (retailbrew ). CNBC reports: Since the Chinese shopping app launched in the U.S. a year ago, it has become the number one e-commerce app in the country, with downloads skyrocketing 50x from 600,000 to 30 million in just one quarter, according to Bernstein analysts. In contrast, Amazon’s downloads have dropped off a cliff, falling 40% in a year. Known for wild discounts and dirt-cheap prices that severely undercut Amazon’s, Temu has ratcheted up its ad spend to infiltrate the American consumer, set to spend an estimate $2 billion in marketing in 2023 ( cnbc). The Khan lives apparently in a parallel universe where only Amazon sells online.

 (source )

The rapid growth of Amazon challengers indicates a healthy competition. Amazon is far away from becoming a monopoly.  As in her flawed Amazon paper from 2017 Chair Khan overlooks that Amazon`s success is inspiring competition - not stifling. 

In the year 1995, when Jeff Bezos started Amazon, the company was the only one who sold online. Amazon was a monopoly - for a short time. Soon copy cats appeared - animated by Amazon´s success. They all want a piece of Amazon`s pie.   

Over the years the number of other online sellers, the competitors, has been swiftly climbing. Amazon survived - and could continue her growth - because the management has been been obsessed with efficiency, cost cutting and delivering goods cheap, fast & reliably. 

Amazon`s success story inspired myriads of copycats to offer similar services, a gain for the consumers. Amazon and their competitors have been constructing networks of huge fulfillment centers which are very efficient and save a lot of costs. The competition with Amazon inspired Walmart, Target and many other retailers to be more efficient and to curb their prices as well. The tough competition with Amazon forces other retailers to sell at relatively low prices.  

As a result online prices are already falling, helping to curb the general inflation. Adobe reports that online prices extended their deflationary trend (adobe ): "Online prices in August 2023 fell 3.2% year-over-year (YoY), hitting a 40-month low—and marking a full year (12 consecutive months) of YoY price decreases".

 

 

 ( source)

 

 

                        Based On Ideology

Khan´s Amazon law suit is not based on facts but on ideology ( drivebycuriosity). Khan`s FTC represents a Marxist ideology, explained former FTC-Commissioner & Khan colleague Christine S. Wilson (ftc.gov ). According to Wilson the FTC tries to replace the market process of supply and demand by a continuously regulated environment. Wilson calls the FTC´s antitrust enforcement "a politicized exercise that serves as a tool of oppression".

Biden - and his protege Khan - hate Amazon because it is big and successful - and more popular than the President. I can buy an incredible array of goods through Amazon at prices that weren’t imaginable a few years back, delivered to my door within two days or less. The Khan wants to stop this.

 

Contemporary Art: Joe W. Speier Self-Portraits @ King´s Leap Gallery New York

(Drivebycuriosity) - New York´s gentrification never sleeps. Manhattan`s Lower East Side is slowly degenerating into a party district with a legion of fast food places & other dives. They are pushing many of the fine tiny art galleries out which can not afford the climbing rents anymore. 

But it seems that neighboring Chinatown is benefiting. I spot there many new art dealers which take advantage from the still reasonable rents. The gallery King´s Leap on Henry Street belongs to them.

Last week I saw an exhibition with paintings by Joe W. Speier ( kingsleap). The show is called "Self-Portraits" -  and so are the images. 

I like the surrealist mirror effects. All paintings are acrylic on canvas.

 

To be continued 

 

Books: The Man Who Bought London

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Edgar Wallace belonged to the most successful English book authors in the 20th century. He created more than 170 novels and about 1,000 short stories, mostly crime mysteries (wikipedia). In the 1960s a series of funny Edgar Wallace films, featuring the peerless Klaus Kinski, became huge hits in Germany.

I enjoyed his novels  - and films - decades ago and decided to reread "The Man Who Bought London" ( just 133 pages amazon ).

The book mixes 2 parallel running plots: An American, known as the billionaire "Kerry", represents a huge trust and buys quite a lot properties in the center of London and rearranges them. The second plot is a crime mystery about the conflict between this Kerry and a villain, his nemesis.

I was impressed how Wallace described Kerry´s master plan. The way the investor changed London´s infrastructure and upgraded the shops there is impressive and visionary. Wallace wrote: "London would one day be twice its present size, and ground value would be enormously increased. Its unique situation, the security which came from the geographic". Today London belongs to the global cities where millions from all over the world come and spend their money. 

Wallace also described modern retail giants like Walmart & Amazon: There is "a warehouse fill with stuff in south London - a year`s supply". Kerry "bought his stock in advance,and he`s selling exactly six times the amount of goods that any other house does". Otherwise Kerry offered to sell much cheaper than other shops, which would be today a case for antitrust and called "predatory pricing".

The background story about the conflict between Kerry, the "good" one, and Henry his ruthless nemesis is a bit too soapy for my taste. But there are a lot surprises and the plot culminates into shockingly and surprising finale. Apparently the whole plot is .. constructed to lead to this end.

"The Man Who" is a peculiar mixture and a quick quirky read - recommended for those who want to read something besides the trodden path. In the moment of writing the Kindle version costs just 99 Cents.

Economics: Why China Is Still At The Begin Of The Secular Ascent

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There are so many pessimist headlines about China. The China pessimism is as widespread as the China phobia. I think both are unfounded.

                      Perpetual catching up

China is still at the begin of a perpetual catching up process, which is fueled by extreme income & wealth differences to the US and other Western nation. In 2022 China had about $12,720 income per capita, the US number was $76.400 (worldbank). Lots of room for growth. 

China is following other countries which had - at least partially - caught up to the leading economies. China`s per capita income needs to triple to reach at least half of today´s American income.

The country has a huge natural resource which is fueling the growth. There is a gigantic amount of human capital: About 1.4 billion people, four times as many as the United States.  

More people means that there are more creative minds with new ideas. Thanks to the sheer size China has potentially about 4-times as many artists, entrepreneurs, inventors, scientists, engineers, coders and geniuses like Elon Musk or Steve Jobs as the US. 

China`s ascent is fueled by people who are smart, hard working & well educated. The Chinese education system is more rigorous, competitive and success focused than the American and the British (americanaffairs ). 

 International Mathematical Olympiad 2023 results:

 

 

( source)

Wikipedia counted in 2021 already 3,012 colleges and universities, with over 40 million students enrolled in mainland China (wikipedia). Chinese corporations, think tanks & administrations can employ a large number of highly dedicated & educated people. The country already leads the world with mathematical skills, the basis for science & software development.

China´s vast human capital is the engine for fast expanding knowledge and the driving force for science & innovation (washingtonpost scottsumner). Elon Musk criticized the “entitled” and “complacent” character of people in the United States, and lauded the “smart” and “hard working people” of China ( cnbc). China`s ascent is boosting the global progress of medicine, robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and more - and so the standard of living everywhere.

The Chinese are also particularly thrifty. They save on average almost three times what the Americans do. China`s Gross Domestic Savings Rate is 46%, the American just 17% ( worldbank). History shows that a higher saving rate will result in higher levels of economic output in the long run ( google). Savings support investments which are the base for long term economic growth.

               Productive Density

 China has another advantage. The country is much denser populated than the US. China is as big as the US but has around 4-times more people. China`s  1,43 billion people live on 9,596,961 km2/3,705,407 sq mi, while the 330 million Americans occupy 9,833,520 km2/3,796,742 sq mi (worldometers  wikipedia). 

Thanks to the higher density China`s economy is much more efficient than the American. On average the Chinese need to spent less money & time for transporting goods & commuting.

A large part of the population lives in huge cities. China has over 160 cities that have a population of over 1 million people, which include at least 14 mega cities, with each has more than 10 million citizen ( worldpopulation). These big cities contain altogether more people than the whole US, where a large part of the population spreads over vast areas.

 "Packed city centers are correlated with economic growth, talent levels, and diversity" notices city lab, a think tank (citylab).  They add that "clusters of talented and ambitious people increase one another’s productivity" and "the increased productivity of the broader community spures economic growth". Project Syndicate, another think tank, says "80% of economic output originates in cities: urbanization is the engine of economic growth" (project-syndicate).

China`s cities are connected by a cutting-edge network  (trains, subways, harbors, airports), beating the rotten American infrastructure by far.  And Beijing is pumping many billions into the economy to expand and modernize the communication & transport nets. The country has already some of the fastest trains of the world. The US is disadvantaged because it lacks a nation spanning train network, travelers need to fly and to rely on overcrowded airports & unreliable airlines.

 

Conclusion: Catching up process, vast human capital, high savings & the productive clusters of huge cities are the engines for China´s perpetual progress.  China`s ascent is a gain for the whole world. 
 

 

 

 

 

Contemporary Art: Toba Khedoori @ David Zwirner

  (Drivebycuriosity) - David Zwirner belongs to the power houses in the world of art. Two galleries of global art empire are in Manhattan`s trendy Chelsea district. I did not care much about the hyped Tilman photographs there, but I enjoyed seeing the art work of Toba Khedoori (davidzwirner ).

The press release explains: "Through a meticulous, time-consuming process that blends painting and drawing, Khedoori creates intricate, contemplative compositions depicting façades, plants, grids, windows, and doorways, among other subjects, that appear arrested in time and space—as though existing in a liminal state. Primarily done on immense sheets of waxed paper, her work espouses a neutral language of objecthood and natural forms versus one of figurative or gestural expressivity and narrative forms."

 

Above you can see an untitled work, Oil on canvas.

 

Above and below are more untitled works, added with detail shots. These all are Oil, graphite, and wax on paper.
 

To be continued