Science Fiction: The Last Voyage of Skidbladnir By Karin Tidbeck

(Drivebycuriosity) - I am fascinated by spaceships. They transport their passengers to far away places, using often exotic technologies. Karin Tidbeck`s novella "The Last Voyage of Skidbladnir" (amazon ) describes a very special spaceship, named Skidbladnir, which is rather a living thing than a technology. Tidbeck belongs to the new crowd of females who enrich the genre with funny ideas. I found her weird ideas interesting, but I am not sure that this fairy tale belongs to the scifi genre. The surreal plot is more inspired by Franz Kafka then by Isaac Asimov.

Economics: Antitrust - The Crusade Against Big Tech

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The covid-19 pandemic - and measures against it - caused a sharp recession in the US and worldwide. People would have suffered even more without the services of technology corporations, especially of the giants Amazon, Google, Apple and Facebook. But some US politicians and bureaucrats on the left and right side of the political spectrum don´t  care. Corona pandemic or not, they want to gag the big tech companies, and they intend to oversee & to constrain their business. 

Recently a bipartisan group of Washington DC lawmakers, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, held a hearing on the market power of tech companies and  Amazon Ceo Jeff Bezos, Apple Ceo Tim Cook, Facebook Ceo Mark Zuckerberg, and Google Ceo Sundar Pichai all were forced to testify before the group. Subcommittee chairman Rep. David Cicilline, a member of the Democratic Party, called these Ceos  “emperors” who “have the power to pick winners and losers in the economy.” (cei.org )

Washington`s new crusade against Big Tech is not only ungrateful, it also could harm the people the technocrats claim to protect. The crusade might endanger the economic recovery and curb the growth of the coming years. Through Mid-March till May many shops were closed (in lockdown) in order to constrain the pandemic. Even today many people, especially the elderly, avoid shopping because of the infection risk. Amazon´s swift deliveries of necessaries are helping many people. Amazon also inspired other companies, like Walmart & Target, to invest in online delivery. They all keep people fed and supplied while social distancing and temper the recession.

Google´s search engines and maps make it easier to keep up with the latest news about the virus. They help to find doctors, clinics, shops, restaurants. Google`s YouTube provides entertainment while staying at home and make it easier to work or learn from home. And so do Apple`s products & services like iPhones, iPads, iMacs & MacBooks.

Google and Facebook`s social networks (including the Facebook`s daughter Instagram) help people stay in touch, share ideas, allow people to gather, exercise, hold business meetings, have happy hours, celebrate special occasions, and console distant loved ones from within their own homes ( reason ). We will likely never know how many lives have been saved by these services, many of which are free of charge (cei.org).

All these beneficial services are ignored by the crusaders. They claim that Amazon, Google, Apple & Facebook have monopoly power and that the technology giants abuse their alleged power and do so harm to the economy. The bureaucrats ignore that the power of companies is always constrained by competition. When a corporation has success, her rising profits attract automatically others who want a share from the pie.  The Internet makes it very easy to compare prices and to switch to other shops, news providers & entertainers, sharpening the competition. Customers can choose the company which has the best quality, the best service and/or the lowest prices which gives the consumers a lot power. As a result, customers have more power than the corporations.

Amazon´s success has been animating a legion of copycats who also benefit from the ascent of e-commerce. And many competitors are growing much faster than Amazon (image below).  Amazon is competing against huge retail corporations like Walmart, Target & Best Buy who are copying Amazon`s success, getting better over the time. Amazon is also competing with other Internet companies like Ebay, Wayfair & Overstock. And there are rapidly growing e-commerce platforms like Shopify, where companies can sell their products & services online. Facebook (and their daughter Instagram) and Google also developed platforms where companies can sell their products & services independent from Amazon. Amazon`s cloud business AWS, which is also getting much attention from the trustbusters, is challenged by Microsoft, Google, IBM, Oracle and other companies who also want to have a large piece from the pie. Microsoft`s cloud business won recently a huge contract with the Pentagon and is already growing faster than Amazon`s cloud business AWS.

 

 

( source )

Apple`s iPhones, iPads & MacBooks and services are competing against similar products & services from Microsoft, Google, Samsung, Huawei and a lot of other technology companies. Google & Facebook are fiercely competing against each other and myriad of other media companies because they all depend on advertising dollars. 

Big Tech doesn`t need to be our friend, but the tech giants have to behave friendly otherwise they would go out of business. Adam Smith declared “it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”. That is also true for Big Tech. If Amazon would treat their customers unfriendly, if they would sell too expensive, deliver too slow & too unreliable, then customers would buy at Walmart, Ebay or elsewhere. That is the magic of competition. Because Big Tech has to compete against others they have to behave like friends. And competition is fierce as the sharp online revenue growth @ Walmart, Shopify & Target demonstrate.

While politicians on the left and right seem to hate big corporations, the people - the consumers - love them. We all are benefiting a lot from Big Tech. Consumers love to get goods delivered cheap and fast from Amazon, buy gadgets from Apple, search on Google and use the free services from Twitter, Facebook & Instagram. People use Facebook to communicate with relatives & friends for free, they use Instagram to spread their photographs without paying for it. I employ frequently Google maps and other services without getting charged. Amazon translates her experience & efficiency into low prices which forces the competitors also to sell cheaper. As a result Amazon and other e-commerce companies are keeping inflation at bay which translates into low interest rates  - keeping America`s economic expansion alive (Amazon-effect).

I am really happy to buy Kindle e-books for a relatively low prices, why is that a problem for David Cicilline & other trust busters in Washington. Amazon is also a platform which allows even tiny businesses - including many unknown book authors - to sell their products globally. And the cloud services by Amazon, Microsoft and Google - who all are fiercely competing against each other - allow other companies, including tiny startups,  to reduce their expenses for information technologies and to expand their businesses. All these services & products benefit the whole economy and the society.

The trust busters claim that Big Tech companies "have hurt small businesses and stifled innovation". Really? Did they ever hear of Uber,  Lyft, Arbnb & Pinterest?  These so-called unicorns came out of nowhere. They were founded just years ago and are already valued $20 billion and more (nypost). Casper, who sells mattresses online, became a brand name almost over night. Competitor Wayfar started in 2002 and envoled into a billion Dollar company, Did Amazon stop them? Nope! 

The enormous success of Amazon, Facebook & Google is stimulating talents to start new & disrupting (innovative) businesses (me too effect)  and animates huge venture capital funds to invest massively in newcomers, fueling competition & innovation. It seems we are experiencing a Cambrian explosion. There are so many new & rising companies which are changing society & economy - on the coat-tails of Big Tech.

Washington`s anti-Big-Tech crusade employs thousands of high paid lawyers and are burning so a lot of tax payers money which could be used for education or health care. The anti-tech crusade creates a lot of highly attractive job opportunities for anti-trust lawyers and university employees which attracts many young talents. Instead moving into technology, medical research and other sciences, which would benefit the society, these people are wasting their talents in unproductive skirmishes. As a result the anti-tech crusade will slow down economic growth and harm everybody who does not live from the money of the taxpayers 

Did Washington´s trust busters ever notice that there is a world outside of the US? If the US  government would curb her tech giants ore break them up they would support the global competitors.  China has been highly supportive of its own tech sector to foster her economic growth and to catch up with the USA. The Peoples Republic already has fast growing tech giants like Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu & Tencent;  Latin America`s e-commerce is ruled by Mercado Libre and Russia´s Internet is dominated by Yandex. The foreign giants would be happy to inherit the turf of Google, Amazon & Co. and to overtake the global markets. America`s anti-tech crusade is giving China, Russia and other countries a huge advantage. 

Antitrust law is designed to protect the consumers. Big Tech are serving the consumers, the society, by spurring price reductions, delivering better quality & innovation. US politicians are making the world a poorer place by fighting the quartet of Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple that have helped so many Americans make 2020 a little more bearable" (twitter).

 

 

   

Science Fiction: Cat Pictures Please By Naomi Kritzer

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The world is getting more and more complex, and so is science fiction. Naomi Kritzer belongs to the new crowd of  females who enrich the genre with funny ideas. Her short story collection "Cat picture please and other stories" (amazon ) deals with a lot of topics like sex toys for humans, who are married with aliens, a Golem in Prague, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) who likes cat pictures, male robots for single females, cooking recipes and much more.   

Mrs. Kritzer can write and she has hilarious ideas but I prefer hard science fiction, which uses sciences and logic, today represented by authors like Nancy Kress, Adrian Tchaikovsky, Liu Cixin  or Gregory Benford.

 PS. I bought the book because I had enjoyed her short story "Liberty´s daughter", which I found in the collection “Year`s Best SF 18” by David G. Hartwell. This is a near future story set in a libertarian economy on tiny independent states before the US west coast (on man made islands like ships and other floating platforms). An amateur detective tries to find a missing woman and comes across a sinister crime. Kritzer wrote an interesting plot with twists and blent it with plausible speculations about alternative economic models. (here my review). Unfortunately not in this anthology.

Science Fiction: Paul McAuley`s Early Short Stories

(Drivebycuriosity) - Paul McAuley belongs to the most talented contemporary science fiction authors. The British writer mingles science with funny ideas into interesting tales. I just finished reading the anthology "A very British History The Best Science Fiction Stories of Paul McAuley, 1985 – 2011" (amazon). The collection contains earlier works by the author, the newest tale was published in the year 2011. The stories appear in chronological order so the reader can follow the evolution of the writer. I got the impression that McAuley got better over the time.

The book covers a wide range of topics stories. I have 2  favorites: "How we lost the Moon" describes an event on the earth`s satellite, which causes an immense chain reaction. The story is inspired by quantum physics and cosmology and spiced by wonderful descriptions of Moon`s landscape. This is pure hard science fiction - even Isaac Asimov would have been proud of and belongs to the reasons why I love scifi.

I also enjoyed "Sea Change, with Monsters"which blends sciences like chemistry, physics & genetics into a thrilling adventure story. The rest may cater different tastes. In the moment of writing the Kindle version cost just $5.16 - a bargain.

 

 

 

Stock Market: Don`t Be Surprised By The New All-Time High

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Corona-19 pandemic or not, the US stock market, represented by the S&P 500, climbed to a new all-time high. Some might be surprised that the market recovered so fast even though the US economy is still in a deep mess. The skeptics don`t understand that the stock market is always forward looking. The market does not care much about the current situation, it tries to anticipate the economy in the future. all-time highs are normal and part of the nature of stock markets. And in the long run the market always goes up, after every correction, crash & bear market follow new all-time highs. 

Since its inauguration in the year 1896 the Dow Jones, another gauge for the US stock market, has been rising annually at least 7% on average - in spite of all the recessions and crashes that investors have suffered in this period. Considering the interest compound effect an annual 7% gain means that stock prices double every 10 years or so (calculator).

The market is inspired by encouraging news from the Covid-19 front, the development of treatments and vaccines is making progress and in the US the numbers of new reported infections are falling. A new economic boom could be right around the corner. The economic recovery will be fueled by a huge backlog demand. People are tired from sitting quarantined at home, they will be happy to go back to work and they want to visit shops, bars, restaurants again. There are also tailwinds from record low interest rates, cheap oil and trillions of government money. 

All-time highs mirror the long term trend of rising company profits. Companies are getting more efficient & more productive over time - thanks to learning processes and the technological progress. They are learning organisms because they are managed by humans who are continuously improving themselves and their companies. There is a permanent evolution process which is driving the productivity (output per worker) and the winners are getting fitter and more efficient than before.

In the recent years the stock market gains got fueled by the accelerating technological process. We have been experiencing a rapid advance of information technology, meaning combinations of computers, smartphones, Internet and other digital systems. It seems the Covid Pandemic is boosting these changes. This reminds me of the Spanish Flu from 1918/19 which was followed by the Roaring Twenties and a legion of innovations. 

History shows that consumers and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks (twitter). Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: companies need to get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative. The Covid Pandemic changed many habits. The crisis forces many people to work, learn, shop, educate & entertain from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales worldwide are surging, more people are working from home, they are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Not only consumers are changing, corporations adapt as well. There is an accelerated shift toward digital technologies that are faster, less expensive, more productive and raise creativity.  Post Covid-19 the new normal will be more digitized and more efficient & productive which will be reflected by a strong rise of company earnings. I suppose that the accelerating digitization will spur economic growth in the coming years and fuel further stock market gains.

 

 
 

 

Books: The Innocent By Ian McEwan

 

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Ian McEwan is a very interesting writer who likes to provoke.  I enjoyed his novels "Cement Garden", "Sweet Tooth" & "Machines Like Me" (my reviews cement  sweet   machines ).  This brought my attention to his book "The Innocent", published 1990 ( amazon). According to Wikipedia the novel received positive reviews from book critics and is often considered one of his best novels ( wikipedia). I have mixed feelings with this novel. I like the style and there are many funny ideas, but I have severe problems with the plot.

 

In 1955 the "innocent", a 25 years old Englishman, arrives in Berlin, which is still ruined by the war. The young engineer, formerly employed with the British Post Office, has a job in an intelligence project in the begin of the cold war between the West and the Soviet system and he also has a relationship with a young Berlin woman. Both threads are wonderfully described but in the middle of the book the plot suddenly changes and becomes a farce (this is a spoiler free book you can find a synopsis here wikipedia). 

 
I enjoyed how McEwan described the interactions between the British & the Americans who participated in the intelligence project. He did this with humor and psychological insights. This applies also to the relationship with the German woman. The elaborated but descend described sex scenes are very funny. But in the middle of the book the story and the leading character suddenly change and the plot becomes a kind of macabre and absurd theater. Nothing against that, but both parts don´t fit together. McEwan wrote much better books.

 

 

Covid Pandemic: Sweden - All Quiet On The Corona Front?

 

 (Drivebycuriosity). The world is still fighting the Covid-19 Pandemic. There is a discussion about the Swedish model. Sweden refused to lockdown and kept factories, shops, ice cream parlors, hairdressers, gyms, schools & kindergartens open. The Scandinavian country reported in April and May Sweden high rates of infections and deaths, much higher than her neighbors which supported the critics of the Swedish experiment (driveby). In July the numbers of infections & deaths suddenly dropped and the media seemed to lose interest. Is the Swedish model really a success?

 

 

 (source)

 

I suppose that the drop is mostly a seasonal effect. The Swedes use the short Scandinavian summer for extensive holidays. From mid June (around June 20) through mid August schools are closed and so are most factories and offices. The Swedes enjoy the long northerly days in fresh air. "Summer in Sweden means workplaces emptying for weeks on end and a flood of 'out of office' replies from colleagues and clients taking lengthy vacations" (  thelocal). Relatively warm air and many hours of sunshine (meaning UV radiations) may help to constrain the virus.

The real test of the Swedish model will come when the holidays end. Temperatures will drop, daily sunshine time will get shorter and the Swedes will go back to schools, factories and offices.

 

Stock Market: It Looks Like 2009 Again

(Drivebycuriosity) - It looks like 2009 again. The US stock market, represented by the S& 500, jumped more than 50% since the lows from March. The recovery encounters incomprehension and disbelief. Many observers don´t understand why stocks are rising when the economy is in a deep mess. Many commentators dismiss the rally as a bubble and Wall Street blowhards like Mohammed El-Erian, Jeremy Grantham & Stanley Druckenmiller call for a crash (markets ). 

 

 I experienced a very similar situation in 2009, when the 11 years bull market was born. In 2009 - and also in 2010 - the media and most pundits dismissed the rally and predicted a second dip. Many pundits announced the apparent return of the bear and even deeper lows.  I worked then for an online service in Germany commenting the stock market. My colleagues, the owner of the website and the majority of our readers were pessimistic and my positive comments got ridiculed and hated. Even early in 2010 the owner of the service forbid me to use the word bull market.

The skeptics then and now don`t understand that the stock market is always forward looking. The market does not care much about the current situation, it tries to anticipate the economy in the future. And in the long run the market always goes up, after every correction, crash & bear market follow new all-time highs.

I believe that the experience from 2009 will repeat and we may be in an early phase of another long running bull market. An economic boom could be right around the corner. The news about the research on Covid-19 treatments and vaccines are encouraging. The economic recovery should be fueled by a huge backlog demand. People are tired from sitting quarantined at home, they will be happy to go back to work and they want to visit shops, bars, restaurants again. There are also tailwinds from record low interest rates, cheap oil and trillions of government money.

My optimism is based on the observation that companies are getting more efficient & more productive over time - thanks to learning processes and the technological progress. They are learning organisms because they are managed by humans who are continuously improving themselves and their companies. There is a permanent evolution process which is driving the productivity (output per worker) and the winners are getting fitter and more efficient than before.

 

In the recent years the stock market gains got fueled by technological process. We have been experiencing a rapid advance of information technology, meaning combinations of computers, smartphones, Internet and other digital systems. It seems the Covid Pandemic is accelerating these changes. This reminds me of the Spanish Flu from 1918/19 which was followed by the Roaring Twenties and a legion of innovations. 

 

History shows that consumers and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks (twitter). Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: companies need to get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative. The Covid Pandemic changed many habits. The crisis forces many people to work, learn, shop, educate & entertain from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales worldwide are surging, more people are working from home, they are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Not only consumers are changing, corporations adapt as well. There is an accelerated shift toward digital technologies that are faster, less expensive, more productive and raise creativity ( marketwatch). Post Covid-19 the new normal will be more digitized and more efficient & productive. I suppose that the accelerating digitization will spur economic growth in the coming years and fuel further stock market gains. 

COVID-19: Stupidity Kills

(Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still struggling with COVID-19. The global numbers of reported infections, hospitalizations & deaths are climbing steeply. But there are huge national differences. China, Taiwan, South Korea have very low numbers of new cases & deaths, conversely in the USA, Brazil and Mexico the pandemic seems to be out of control (worldometers).

It is interesting in this case that a new study links infectious diseases with low national average IQs : "Researchers in the US have noted areas of the world with the lowest average intelligence quotient (IQ) also tend to have the highest rates of infectious diseases" (medicalxpress).

Maybe it´s a matter of intelligence to deal with the COVID-19. People need to understand that the virus jumps from person top person, it needs an intact chain. These chains could be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). It seems that many people don´t understand these mechanism or they don`t care. Many refuse wearing masks in public, they ignore social distancing rules and what about washing hands properly? There is even a term for them: Covidiots.

There are reports about violent anti-mask and anti-social-distancing demonstrations in Germany (bbc). The media also report about corona parties in the US (cnn). Fortunately in Manhattan, where I live, the majority wears masks in public which helped to reduce the corona numbers considerably. But there is still a stubborn crowd who ignore the pandemic and behave as there were no crisis. I also notice a lot blacks and latinos who enter shops, cafes, laundromats and other public places wearing no masks. Don`t they get what`s going on? It is no surprise that their communities have over average infections and death rates.

( source)

Unfortunately in other US states the situation is worse and fewer people are wearing masks. The image above shows the chance that in five random encounters all five people are wearing masks  (nytimes). As you can see mask use is high in the Northeast and the West, and lower in the Plains and parts of the South. The Covidiots keep the pandemic sweltering like a huge forest fire. As a result the number of deaths in the US is still climbing steeply. Stupidity kills.

Books: The Year`s Top Hard Science Fiction Stories Vol. 3

(Drivebycuriosity) -   I love science fiction. But I get often disappointed. Most of the so-called sci-fi books and movies tell just fantasy stories about wizards, dragons & princesses or post-apocalyptic horror stories. It became increasingly challenging to find real "science fiction", stories & novels which have science in it and are not pure fairy tales. So I am searching for hard science fiction which blends entertainment with sciences like physics, chemistry, biology, evolution and more.

Fortunately I found the anthology series "The Year`s Top Hard Science Fiction Stories" edited by Allan Kaster (amazon).  I just finished reading Vol. 3 which presents 11 stories originally published in the year 2018 (326 pages). Many stories are optimistic and deliver a "we can do it" message. They are pro science, pro technology and pro progress.

My favorite is the story "Umbernight" by Carolyn Ives Gilman - a thrilling adventure. Human settlers on an inhospitable planet are hiking through unknown land to capture something they need. The hikers have to deal with a bizarre & deadly environment. A masterpiece!

But there is more to like:

In "Ice Fall" by Stephanie Gunn two women arrive on a planet which is totally covered by ice. One of them ventures a dangerous climb on a peak where nobody before had succeeded. The author describes a fascinating world, the risks & thrills of extreme mountain climbing and a romance between 2 women spiced with an amazing technology. I enjoyed the ideas & style of the novella.

"Cosmic Spring" by Ken Liu presents cutting edge cosmology experienced by an AI who is the brain of a star ship on an extremely long lasting travel.

"The Spire" by Alec Nevala-Lee is set on Alaska in the era of the Great Depression. A pilot flies 2 passengers to a remote bay where his customers want to explore a strange phenomena.

"Providence" by Alastair Reynolds is a very short & crisp story.  A group approaches their target after a long travel through space.

"Nothing Ever Happens on Oberon" by Paul McAuley. A woman has a lonely job on Oberon, a moon of Uranus, overseeing some mining machines. Suddenly a capsule arrives with one passenger in it which starts a chain of events.

I really enjoyed the book and I learned a lot. I am looking forward to read the next volume of this series. In the moment of writing the Kindle version costs just $4.99 - a bargain.