TV: Binge Watching Perry Mason On HBO

(Drivebycuriosity) - I am a ferocious reader.  I am devouring science fiction, history (fiction & non-fiction), thrillers and other genres. Decades ago I used to read the hard boiled detective stories by authors like Raymond Chandler, Dashiell Hammett and Erle Stanley Gardner`s Perry Mason tales.

Now I am enjoying the newest incarnation of the crime noir fables - HBO`s "Perry Mason" ( imdb). The show is set in Los Angeles in the year 1932, when Hollywood boomed in the midst of the Great Depression. Perry Mason, being an private eye and attorney, investigates the case of a little boy who got abducted &  murdered (this is a spoiler free blog. You can find a synopsis here wikipedia ). The plot is getting more & more complicated and messier but stays interesting.

Being a reader I care less about the plots of movies & TV shows and focus on their other qualities. "Perry Mason" has an amazing cast. Matthew Rhys, who already impressed  in "The Americans", is a very believable Perry Mason. He plays convincingly a decent guy, smart, but an under dog anyway, who stubbornly sticks to his cause, no matter what it may cost him. Rhys` Perry Mason is a thinking man, serious, slow & crisp. I indulged in watching his performance.

The rest of the cast impresses as well. I was happy to see again John Lithgow, who`s funny appearances amused me in "3rd Rock". This time he displays a very different character, an ambitious but depressed attorney. The Mexican actress Veronica Falcón as Mason`s love interest is a real discovery. I want to see more by her.

 

The most fun comes from the wonderful cinematography, which gives the show the perfect noir feeling. Camera and special effects reincarnate a Los Angeles from the 1930 and many shots are art in motion.

I am looking forward to the last 2 episodes and to season 2 which is apparently in the making.

Politics: Vandals At The Gates Of America

(Drivebycuriosity) - Everyday I read reports about riots in the US. There is nationwide a wave of vandalizing, looting & pillaging driven by the black-lives-matter and antifa movements. These riots are part of a global trend. A certain kind of people, often very young, engages in violent attacks on the society, using politics, inequality, race, climate & environment as excuse for looting & pillaging.

This is going on for years. During the G20 meetings in August 2017 in Hamburg, Germany, activists - often masked - vandalized the streets, they looted and set fires on buildings and one super-market burned out (cnn). In March 2019 in Paris activists - called Yellow Vests- looted shops and set them on fire (scmp ). In October 2019 in Chile started a series of violent protests against the government (wikipedia ). Recently a routine drug arrest in Stuttgart, Germany, erupted into violent riots and widespread looting ( cnn). Rioters, moving through the city in small groups also targeted city property by damaging billboards and spraying graffiti. At least 30 stores were damaged and non reported looting. 12 police cars were “massively damaged”.

The riots seem to have different causes, but they are all against government, against corporations, against the “establishment” and often driven by the lust of destructing things.

The ongoing anti-government protests in Hong Kong fit into this pattern. Activists attacked the airport, vandalized subway stations and blocked the streets ( scmp). The threw stones & Molotov cocktails ( cbsnews). These actions didn’t harm the far away government in Beijing, they harmed the citizens of Hong Long & their visitors. Harmless tourists, who have nothing to do with China & her politics, got stranded and endanger. Hong Kong’s economy is suffering, reducing incomes & jobs from normal citizens.

President Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other US politicians are abusing the Hong Kong riots as excuse for harassing China. They seem to fraternize with the Hong Kong rioters. Apparently Trump, Pompeo & Co. ignore that the Hong Kong riots are the same kind as the riots in Portland, New York City, Hamburg & Paris.

The wave of protests in the US is already harming the US economy and destroying American incomes and jobs. In Manhattan´s once classy Soho district are many shops still closed behind boards covered with graffiti. It seems that a spreading lawless system is discouraging doing business in the US.

 

Economics: Why Is The Dollar Falling?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The US dollar seems to be in a free fall. The US currency is under  pressure since early May. Inversely the Euro climbed from $1.08 to $1.16 (charts below). There are at least three reasons for the dollar weakness:

( source 1   source 2  )

1. In the US the COVID-19 pandemic is still spreading. Steeply rising numbers of new reported cases & hospitalizations are slowing the reopening of the economy and are forcing some states & counties to implement new lockdowns.  Some consumers are too scared to shop and many businesses are closed because of the infection risk.  Contrary to the US most European countries, including Germany, got the pandemic mostly under control (charts below). Therefore the European economies are recovering earlier than the American which is apparently lifting the Euro.

(source 1  source 2 )

2. President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo restarted the trade war against China. This week they closed China`s consulate in Houston. The conflict has been hurting the US economy already for years because the trade war reduces US exports, cuts US companies from global supply chains, reduces the supply of cheap consumer goods and dampens the American business & investment sentiment.  An escalating trade war would weaken the already ailing US economy further.

3. The currency markets might also respond to the noise from the upcoming November election in the US.  Joe Biden, the candidate of the Democratic Party, is leading  the polls. The liberal politician stands for more taxes & more regulation and could  harm the already weak business & investment sentiment in the US.  The dollar might also suffer from the riots around the Black-Lives-Matter movement which is combined with an rising anti-business and anti-capitalism sentiment in the US.

Books: The Executioner Weeps - By Frédéric Dard

(Drivebycuriosity) - A man meets a woman. A story told millions of times. Frédéric Dard presents a very special version in his novel "The Executioner Weeps" ( amazon). 

 

In the beginning it reminded me of Nabokov, but later it turned more and more into a Hitchcock mystery. The plot, told in first person by an French artist and painter, is set in sunny Spain, but it gets darker and darker (this is a spoiler free blog).

I enjoyed the psychological & analytical musings,  the humorous descriptions of the landscape around Barcelona, the architecture and the locals, and I felt with the narrator. Recommended!    

Economics: Could China Pull The Global Economy Out Of Recession?

 

(Drivebycuriosity) -  The world is still fighting the COVID-19 Pandemic. China  belongs to the first countries which seem to have the corona virus under control. The huge country has just around 20 new  cases daily  (worldometers ). The success allowed China to reopen her economy earlier than the countries in Europe & the Americas. As a result China`s economy started the recovery already in the second quarter of this year.  In Q2 the nation`s GDP gained 3.2% - so the country could avoid a recession which is usually defined as 2 quarters back-to-back negative growth (charts below).

(source 1  source 2 )

China`s recovery is happening at a time when the USA and other nations are still struggling with the pandemic which is curbing their economies. China`s economic is not yet big and strong enough to compensate fully the weaknesses in the rest of the world, but the recovery mitigates the global damage already and the country is getting stronger. I suppose in the second half of the year China`s economy will gain speed, helping the global economy even more.

China`s economic growth will accelerate because the negative influences from the pandemic are further abating - sooner than in the US & Europe.  China`s growth story is still intact, thanks to the secular catching-up process which is fueled by the still extreme income & wealth differences from the US and other Western nation standards, and ongoing economic reforms & huge investment into infrastructure.

China, like the rest of the world, is benefiting from an accelerated digitization process, spurred by the corona epidemic. People, who were forced to stay at home for a while, are using the Internet for work, shopping and entertainment more often & intense. The pandemic is boosting the digitization process and supporting China`s transformation process on her way to become a modern economy where most of the national GDP is created by the service sector (like the USA, UK, Germany and other Western countries).

China has already more than 700 million Internet users, many of them with high-speed connections. The rapid digitization process is making China´s economy more efficient and is raising the productivity of China`s companies and so encouraging economic growth (reuters). History shows that consumer and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks (twitter). Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: they get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative.  Companies are streamlining operations and are getting more efficient & productive as they always do when they are challenged.

The return of China`s economic growth should also ignite the economies in the Pacific Area, including Japan & Australia, thanks to their close economic relations, which will help the global economy out of the recession.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did We Really Reach Herd Immunity?

(Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still fighting the COVID-19 Pandemic. But some countries and regions seem to have the virus under control. Some observers claim that these places reached herd immunity. "Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune" ( mayoclinic ).

(  source)


Tyler Cowen, owner of the influential blog Marginal Revolution  refers to a sharp drop of new cases in Sweden and claims that the Scandinavian country eventually reached herd immunity (marginalrevolution ). Sounds nice, I would like to believe it. 

But there is another reason which is more plausible than the herd immunity thesis. People in Sweden enjoy their long summer vacations. Schools are closed from Midsummer (June 20th ) till Mid-August, and so are many factories and offices (wikipedia  ). "Summer in Sweden means workplaces emptying for weeks on end and a flood of 'out of office' replies from colleagues and clients taking lengthy vacations" (  thelocal)

 ( source )

The situation is similar in New York state & New York City where the numbers of new known new cases dropped sharply. I notice that many people in my Manhattan neighborhoods (Lower East Side, East Village, Soho) changed their behavior. Since April I spot more masked faces on the streets and some people care about social distancing. Wearing face coverings is mandatory in shops & laundromats; gyms & schools are closed, there is no indoor dining and public life happens mostly outdoors in warm air with plenty of UV radiation. 

People in Sweden, New York City, Germany, Austria and other places in the Northern Hemisphere are enjoying the summer season mostly outdoors, apparently with low infection risks. The real test for the herd immunity thesis will come when the summer has ended.  

Books: The Thing Itself - By Adam Roberts

(Drivebycuriosity) -  I am a connoisseur of science fiction and I have been collecting scifi novels & short stories for many years. When I discover an interesting short story I try to read more by its author. I enjoyed Adam Roberts`s story "The Ice Submarine" published in the anthology "Total Conflict", edited by Ian Whates, which focuses on "Military Science Fiction" (my review ). The story reports about the Muslim crew of a submarine below the Antarctica ice shield in a future war between the West and an Islamist union.

This draw my attention to Roberts´s "The Thing Itself" (amazon). The book is a collection of short stories, some are connected, others are not. Unfortunately the anthology doesn`t come up to my taste. There is no scifi in it. I found just 2 passable stories, the rest I skipped reading after some pages.

The name giving story  "The Thing itself" (also published in "The Year's Best Science Fiction: 32nd Annual Collection", edited By Gardner Dozois. My review ) is a sinister tale about 2 men who are spending the long polar night on an Antarctic station together. It is about weirdness and philosophy.

"Baedeker´s Fermi" by Adam Roberts (also published in "Paradox - Stories inspired by the Fermi Paradox". My  review ) is a kind of travel report from the early 20th century.

Many stories are random and tedious. Robert`s frank sexual descriptions are amusing but most parts of the book look like early attempts to get a computer to write stories. 
 

 

Economics: COVID19 Pandemic - No Discipline, No Economic Recovery

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It looks like that the economic recovery in the US is stuttering. Apple had to close most of their US shops again and other businesses are slowing as well (cnbc). Many (potential)  customers are scared by the spreading COVID-19 Pandemic in the US and they spend less because they skip shopping & going out to avoid getting infected.

( source )

Customers & companies respond to the steeply climbing number of corona infections in the US, especially in the south.  Many US states, especially Florida, Arizona, Texas & California, report record numbers.

(source  )

Today the US has more than a quarter of the reported global corona infections! The development in the US is very disappointing because many other countries got the virus mostly under control, at least for the time being (charts below).

( source )

What is wrong with America? Apparently many Americans behave different than the average Europeans & Asians. The virus jumps from person top person, it needs an intact chain. These chains can be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). This needs a lot of self discipline. Disciplined behavior may be the main reason that countries in Europe & Asia have low numbers of cases, sick people, deaths,  even though they are follwing different policies.

It seems that many Americans do not have the traits that it takes to deal with a pandemic, they lack the self-discipline to deal with a pandemic. In my Manhattan neighborhood I spot a a growing number of people who don`t get it. Bowery Boogie, a website which covers Manhattan`s Lower East Side, observed that "drinking in groups on the streets – in daylight – is apparently the trend in Hell Square" (some blocks on the Lower East Side ( boweryboogie ). There is frequent congregating, often without face protection; it goes unchecked until the cops are forced to break up the crowd. The New York Post reports that a nightclub on the Lower East Side opened for an exclusive, invite-only party, in apparent violation of coronavirus lockdown orders ( nypost). Reports from Florida, Texas, Georgia and other US states show even worse behavior. Apparently a significant number of Americans don´t have the necessary self discipline, they sacrifice nothing, they respect nobody. Many are too short-sighted, too stupid, too selfish.

The large numbers of covidiots in the US keeps the infection chains alive and causes sharply rising numbers of new cases. The new trend is putting the economic recovery at risk. If the US numbers get even worse the governors of the federal states might be forced to revive the lockdowns and maybe even need to cancel the announced reopenings. And more factories & shops will get closed because their workers will get sick or stay at home. It seems that a significant number of Americans are sabotaging the US economy.

PS I found the image on top of the post on Twitter tagged with the name Joshua Bickel

Books: Siberian Dilemma - By Martin Cruz Smith

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - Do you know Moscow`s criminal investigator Arkadi Renko?  This is a fictional character in a series of popular crime novels by the American author Martin Cruz Smith. The series  started with the novel "Gorky Park", published 1981 and set in Moscow in the 1980s. Then Arkadi Renko was investigating some grizzly murders and had to struggle with corruption and the political dangers of real socialism.

I just finished reading "Siberian Dilemma", the newest Arkadi Renko novel, this time set in contemporary Russia ( amazon).  Putin & his comrades had replaced the Communist leaders, but the criminal investigator is still struggling with political dangers and an opaque system. I enjoyed the book, as I had "Gorki Park" and other Arkadi Renko novels, because the investigator is a very likable character. He is smart, but also stubborn and follows his cases against all political and other risks. Arkadi travels to Irkutsk, known as the "Paris of Siberia", to find his girlfriend Tanja, an ambitious journalist who is investigating the lives of 2 Russian oligarchs and oil billionaires (this is a spoiler free blog).

"Siberian Dilemma" is partly a detective story, but also a glance into the shallows of contemporary Russian economy & politics, served with a grim sense of humor & psychology. The plot has long slow moving parts, spiced with musings about modern Russia, but there are also some really scary encounters and dramatic events - perfectly developed page turners. I indulged into Smith`s intense narrations of the loneliness & beauty of the wintery taiga and could almost feel the Siberian chill.

"Siberian Dilemma" is a felicitous installment of a strong series of novels.

Stock Market: Shanghai Awakes

 (Drivebycuriosity) - It seems that the stock market in China is awakening again. This morning the Shanghai Composite, which represents the Chinese stock market, jumped 5.7% (cnbc). The rally started already in April and the gains have been accelerating in the recent days, eliminating the losses from February & March. Year-to-date the index climbed  9% .

(source )

The gains on the Chinese stock market are not surprising, they mirror the fundamental improvements in China. The country was the first which got hit by the COVID-19 Pandemic, but it also belongs to the first which got rid of it. In the recent days China reported fewer than 10 new known cases per day ( worldometers ).

( source)

The success on the corona front allows the reopening of economy and gives way to a recovery. Last week we learned that "the Caixin China General Services PMI jumped to 58.4 in June 2020 from 55.0 in the previous month, pointing to the strongest growth in services activity since April 2010 (charts below). "New orders grew the most in nearly a decade as companies reported that greater customer numbers were resuming more normal business operations. In addition, export sales rose for the first time since January, amid improving global demand" ( services). This barometer shows the current development in the service sector, which accounts for more than half of the Chinese economy and is therefore more important than manufacturing (like in the US).

( source )

China´s stock market is still way below the peaks of the past (chart below). The past rallies got killed by new waves of pessimism. Apparently the stock market followed the skeptics who don´t believe in China`s  sustainable economic growth. The COVID-19 pandemic, which ended the rally attempt from December 2019, seemed to support the negative views.
.

( source )

It looks like that China is back on the economic growth trend of the recent years.  China`s growth story is still intact, thanks to the secular catching-up process which is fueled by the still extreme income & wealth differences from the US and other Western nation standards, and ongoing economic reforms & huge investment into infrastructure. The economy might even get stronger when the corona crisis has past. History shows that consumer and businesses are more willing to change behavior during setbacks (twitter). Innovations typically gain traction during tumultuous times: they get cheaper, faster, more convenient, more productive, more creative.  Companies are streamlining operations and are getting more efficient & productive as they always do when they are challenged.

People, who were forced to stay at home for a while, will use the internet for work, shopping and entertainment more often & intense. This way the virus will boost the digitization process which already has been driving China`s transformation process on her way to become a modern economy where most of the national GDP is created by the service sector (like the USA, UK, Germany and other Western countries). The digitization will drive productivity growth across all industries, leading to more economic growth (driveby).