(Drivebycuriosity) - Today the Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. The
feast reminds of the pioneers who lauded their harvests and their
survival in the harsh environment of the 17th century. Investors also
have plenty reasons to celebrate. The US stock market (S&P 500) gained 25.8%
year-to-date and 14.9% y-o-y. 2019 is on the way to overcompensate last year´s loss of 6% by far and to finish a strong decade.
The stock market rally restarted this year as it did in 2012. The
recession, which many had predicted and was almost priced into the stock prices, did not happen and is not around the corner. The trade war against China did not escalate and it´s damages are constrained so far. Trade war or not, the US economy is still sound, jobless rates &
weekly jobless claims
are close to all-time lows and consumer spending, the engine of the economy, is growing solidly.
I suppose that the rally will continue in 2020 and beyond. During the
recessions of the years 2001/02 and in 2008 companies restructured and
reduced costs significantly in order to survive. Now they are much
fitter and more efficient than before. I believe that this learning
process will continue and will translate into a long term trend of rising
company profits.
Companies are benefiting from a new industrial
revolution: Advances in
Internet, mobile computing, 3-d-printing, robotics, nano- &
biotechnology and other technologies are reducing costs, raising
efficiency
and creating new markets. Interest rates are low, thanks to a constraint inflation, and oil costs about halve than in 2012, thanks to US fracking. Reduced taxes and less
regulation in the US also are supporting the growth of the company earnings.
We are having solid tailwinds from the emerging markets which are even getting stronger. The
catching-up process in China (which is still growing about 6%), India, Indonesia and a lot of other countries
translates into high growth in large parts of the global economy that
creates continuously rising revenues & profits for global companies
like Starbucks, IBM, Caterpillar, Apple, Microsoft, Google and other members of the S&P 500. I assume
that the global economy will re-accelerate coming year, thanks to relative cheap
oil and the reduced US taxes.
Happy Thanksgiving!