Economics: How Would We Survive The Covid-19 Pandemic Without Internet & Big Tech?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still struggling with the Covid-19 pandemic. The situation is bad but our lives would have been even much worse if the pandemic would have happened in the early 1990s. There was no Internet around and there were no Big Tech companies which help us today to deal with the crisis.

Imagine there would be no e-commerce, how would we shop without taking high risks? I don`t feel well in a crowded room with bad air circulation so I try to avoid shops and buy necessary things online - and so do others. In the recent months millions of people got saved by cheap & fast deliveries from Amazon and other online sellers. Amazon and other e-commerce companies keep millions fed and supplied them with necessaries while social distancing. I

Last Spring, during the first Covid-19 wave in the US, Amazon prioritized the stocking and delivery of essential items to ensure the fastest delivery of household staples, medical supplies, and other critical products. Even in the peak of the pandemic Amazon has been capable to support millions of customers and to deliver a huge amount of goods to everywhere in the US in very short time. Amazon could fulfill the gargantuan task of supplying America - and other regions - in a crisis because of her sheer size, a dense network of fulfillment centers and a lot of experience in stocking goods and in logistics.

Amazon saved potentially many lives - especially from elderly and disabled individuals - by making it possible for them to shelter at home during the current pandemic, shop online and receive necessary goods at their front door in a short time.

Imagine people would be forced to work at home without having access to a worldwide net and without affordable computers, smart phones & pads. Most would have to take the risk to infect themselves (and their relatives) or to skip their job. Working at home is made possible by affordable computers, smart phones & pads which possess massive computer power.
 

Imagine kids would need to learn at home without Internet, computers, smart phones & pads. Modern technologies help them to avoid getting  infected at school and to spread the disease to their parents and other relatives.

Image how isolated would we feel while staying at home without technologies like Facetime, Skype, Zoom & e-mail. How bored would we be if we couldn`t stream  and binge watch movies & shows on Netflix, Amazon Prime and others networks.

The Covid-19 pandemic sucks, but most of us can deal with it. Without Internet & the products and services & products by Big Tech it would be unbearable.

 

 

Stock Market: The Purge Of The Fraudsters

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The stock market is getting rattled. Stocks like GameStop, Nokia, AMC Entertainment, GSX and others are having stratospheric rises. People are buying massively stocks which had been extensively shorted.

 

 

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Hedge Funds and other speculators have been betting on falling stock prices (by going short or shorting). They borrowed their stocks from a bank and sold the shares immediately in the hope that their stock prices will fall and then they could buy back these stocks for much less.

The recent rallies by GameStop, AMC and other heavily shorted stocks forces these short sellers to quit their bets and to buy the shorted stocks back - which has been accelerating their rise (short squeeze). I believe that the recent movement started last year with Tesla. The producer of electric vehicles had been a favorite object of the short seller crowd but better fundamentals caused the stock to climb and burned the short sellers. A short squeeze cost the Tesla shorts $40 billion in 2020 ( source).

I think we are seeing now a healthy process - a cleansing. Some hedge funds - like Muddy Waters & Citron Research - are specializing in short selling. They are often working together by spreading rumors - which are compliantly distributed by Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal and other media - to drive stock prices down after they had shorted them. 

Until recently some hedge funds and their followers attacked GSX Techedu Inc, a fast growing Chinese Internet education company. Yahoo Finance reported in September 2020 that "Carson Block from Muddy Waters Research claimed in May that almost 80% of the users in the GSX platform were fake, FT noted. Whereas another short seller from Citron Research, Andrew Left, feels that conducting proper audits could bring down the stock price to zero and lead to delisting the company" (  finance.yahoo). And what ground? feelings?

 

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Even Tesla got attacked by Andrew Left & Co. In May 2020 Andrew Left declared "whoever bought it at these prices has to flush it out, and when it flushes, it's going to flush hard" ( businessinsider). In March 2019 Muddy Waters declared "Tesla will go bankrupt" (youtube ). Really?

There has been a cult around short sellers. Famous short sellers like Jim Chanos ("China will crash"), Bill Ackman, Whitney Tilson & Carson Block are celebrated in the New Yorker, Bloomberg, Business Insider and other media (bloomberg). Some are treated like rock stars (bloomberg). The influential magazine The New Yorker claims, "shorting helps counterbalance investor overconfidence, corporate puffery, and Wall Street’s inherent bullish bias" ("In Praise of Short Sellers" newyorker). The magazine also declares that shorting "contributes to the diversity of opinion that healthy markets require".

The recent development - and the frauds - throw a shadow of doubt on these claims. Andrew Left & Co. are the vermin of the stock market. Their business model is based on lies & fake news. Now we are watching the purge of the fraudsters.


 

Books: A Handbook To Luck By Christina Garcia

 (Drivebycuriosity) - Do you like books that read like colorful bouquets? Then you might enjoy "A Handbook to Luck" by Christina Garcia (amazon). The book is like an exotic menagery - spiced with funny & hilarious scenes but also tragic & violent episodes (this is a spoiler free blog). The author follows 3 persons from Cuba, San Salvador & Iran and describes in independent chapters their developments & experiences over 2 decades.

I like Garcia´s somewhat sarcastic style & enjoy her sharp & humorous observations but "Handbook" is not my favorite Garcia book. I prefer her "The Lady Matador`s Hotel" which is quite a jewel (my  review).

 

Science Fiction: The Tabernacle Of Legion By Kevin Schillo

  

(Drivebycuriosity) - Are there other intelligent beings in our universe? Many science fiction writers speculate about possible encounters with aliens and their artifacts. I just finished "The Tabernacle of Legion" by Kevin Schillo ( amazon  ).  Astronaut Mark de Rijk and his crew are on a fascinating mission to an asteroid which has very strange characteristics (this is a spoiler free blog).

I enjoyed about 90% of the book. The author followed the classics of the scifi golden age like Heinlein & Asimov with a positive "can do" approach - contrary to the ruling dystopian cult in contemporary scifi - and mixed science & engineering with action into a thrilling story. Schillo spiced the plot also with some economic policy - especially the conflict between big corporations and regulations by big governments - and there are even some influences of Ayn Rand`s Atlas Shrugged and references to Elon Musk.  

 "Tabernacle" could have been a great novel. Unfortunately shortly before the end the author deviates from his course and the plot turns into something meta-physical and pseudo-religious. But anyway, the first 90% percent justify the time reading this novel and in the moment of writing the Kindle version costs just 99 cents.

 

 

Books: A Loyal Character Dancer By Qiu Xiaolong

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  If you are interested in China, her culture and her recent history then the Chen Cao novels by Qiu Xiaolong might give you at least a glimpse - and the books entertain as well. The exiled Chinese author, who lives in the US, portraits his home country more critical as a writer living in China could do. The series is set in Shanghai - and other Chinese places - in the 1990s and follows fictional Chief Inspector Chen Cao.

I just finished the novel "A Loyal Character Dancer" (amazon ). Chen has a complicated and delicate task. He needs to cooperate with US Marshal Catherine Rohn, who has been send to China. Both have to find a Chinese woman who is needed in the US for an immigration case  (this is a spoiler free blog). 

The Chinese-American team has not only to deal with politics, organized crime, corruption and international politics. They also have to intersect their different ideological backgrounds. Qiu Xiaolong blends the plot with impressions of politics, society & economy and spices it with some action, romantics and a little bit erotics. I learned a lot about the peculiar mix between state owned and private businesses, I also enjoyed the description of some localities and regional Chinese cuisines. The book is a marvel and I am looking forward to read more by Qiu Xiaolong.

 

 

 

COVID-19: Stupidity Rules

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The world is still struggling with COVID-19. In many European countries and the Americas the numbers of new infections, hospitalizations & deaths are going steeply up. The US are leading with more than 20 million known cases, rising daily by more than 200,000 infected on average.

 

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These numbers are unfathomable. Why do so many people still infect themselves? Why do they still take the risk? The end of the pandemic is around the corner! A number of vaccines exists since early November! In the US and a lot of other countries the vaccinations have already started! 

It would be smart and considerate to postpone risky activities till the dawning end of the pandemic. According to economist Tyler Cowen from Georg Mason University  "the expected value of delaying getting sick just went way, way, way up" (marginalrevolution).

Why couldn`t these people wait? Why do they still spread the pandemic and kill others (and sometimes themselves) when immunity is just around the corner? Why do they ignore the long term damages many of the survivors will suffer?

There would be no pandemic if people would behave smart & considerate and it would end in weeks if everyone would follow the rules. The virus jumps from person to person, it needs an intact chain. These chains could be broken by strictly performing social distancing (at least 6 feet distance),  wearing masks & washing hands (to avoid transporting the virus on the face). It seems that many people don´t understand these mechanism or they don`t care. Many refuse wearing masks in public, they ignore social distancing rules and what about washing hands properly? There is even a term for them: Covidiots.

Obviously some people behave like sheep. They don`t think, they don´t care. They do whatever they want, whatever it may cost to them and others. Apparently in many Western countries, and especially in the US, there is crowd with a "who cares" mentally. These people do not only ruin the lives of others by spreading the pandemic. 

They also ruin many businesses. Caution & fear are curbing businesses even more than lockdowns & quarantines ( nber). People who are smart and considerate stay at home and many industries, especially physical shops, restaurants & airlines, are suffering. There would be no Covid-19 recession without covidiots. 

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The corona spreaders need a shepherd and a shepherd´s dog, otherwise the pandemic will get out of control. Asia shows how that can be done, unfortunately the authorities in the West are too incompetent to protect their societies. 

In the US, Latin America & Europe the governments respond to timid and to lax, they avoid lockdowns - or implement them too late and with too many loopholes. They keep schools, gyms & churches open, giving the virus enough ways to surround the barriers. And many courts, including the US Supreme Court, nullify necessary decrees, like closing churches and other superspreader events. The result are spiking rates of new infections, hospitalizations & deaths. Stupidity rules.

Literature: 20 Remarkable Books I Read In 2020

(Drivebycuriosity) - 2020 was a remarkable year. The Covid-19 Pandemic trapped my wife and me mostly at home, a tiny flat in southern Manhattan. No travels, rock concerts, museums and art galleries - and just short hikes to stay healthy. The imposed stay-at-home gave me a lot of time to read, at least one advantage.

Fortunately I enjoyed some interesting books - covering history, exotic & alternate futures, mysteries, economics & more - which I want to share with you (without spoilers). Below are my favorites from 2020: 

 

"Tyll: A Novel" by Daniel Kehlmann is in set in this dystopian past. The 17th century was a dark period, especially in Germany, which was just a patchwork of independent kingdoms, duchies, electorates & free cities, loosely connected as The Holy Roman Empire. The devastating "Thirty Years War", which lasted from 1618 through 1648,  reduced German population by about 20%.  Armies marched through the country -  murdering, burning, looting & raping everything what was on their ways. The plot leads into a dark history reigned by sheer horror and circles around  fictional entertainer and court jester who traveled through the war stricken country. Some chapters are grizzly & dramatic, others funny and hilarious or resemble elegant stage plays, there are intellectual mind games, horror scenarios & philosophical discussions ( amazon).

"The Glass Kingdom" by Lawrence Osborne is set in a very sinister but fascinating Bangkok. Sarah, a young American, a drifter, came to some money. She moves from New York to Bangkok where she rents a flat in a huge apartment complex, called the "Kingdom", to  “make herself invisible for a while”. Soon Sarah, who is naive and trustworthy, meets some neighbors and trouble is around the corner. The tension is slowly smoldering, getting stronger from page to page, reminding me of Patricia Highsmith´s psychological thrillers & Joseph Conrad´s exotic adventure stories. I also indulged into descriptions of a tropical metropolis, of the lush vegetation and the monsoon climate (amazon ). 

 

"The Ballad of a Small Player"is another novel by Osborne,  this time written in first person. The narrator, an aging Englishman who calls himself "Lord Doyle", came to a lot of money and went to Macau to spend his fresh fortune for gambling in the casino palaces. Like in  "Glass Kingdom" the leading character is a drifter without an aim and certainly not shy of risks which leads to a chain of events. I do not like the leading character - not many will - because he is a pathetic gambler & drinker and behaves parasitic, masochistic and totally immorally. But his tale - as ridiculous & surreal as it seems - fascinated me anyway and kept me on the edge. And I indulged into Osborne`s descriptions of the splendid casinos, hotels & restaurants, the atmosphere there and the often weirdly acting Chinese & Western players. And there are sentences like "The rooms seemed underwater, the smoke static like fish milk suspended in water that isn`t floating". ( amazon)

"Only to Sleep" is a Philip Marlow novel by Osborne in tribute to Chandler. The novel is - of course - told in first person by Philip himself. He had aged a bit; now he is 71 and lives in Mexico & Southern California.  Marlow gets hired - reactivated - by a Californian insurance company  to investigate the death of an American client who´s widow had cashed a huge amount of money. The investigation drives Marlow to several places in Mexico. After reading about 60% I discovered the voice of Chandler served with Osborne´s unique style (amazon ). 

 

"Snow" by John Banville is set in the Republic of Ireland in the 1950s - under the ban of a severe winter. A Catholic priest, who was guest in a remote country house, has been murdered and castrated.  Detective Inspector Strafford arrives there from Dublin and starts his investigation. Even though the ending wasn`t really surprising (regarding the reputation of Catholic priests ) I love this book. As the title suggests, very winterly conditions play an important role and the reader gets immersed into an arctic setting - streets like glass, forests & houses covered with ice - which give the book a kind of fairy tale touch. Detective Strafford is smart, analytical & likable and I enjoyed his slow & methodical investigation.  I had fun with the depictions of the other characters who are often weird & dubious. Banville certainly dislikes priests and the Irish Catholic Church. He showed again his talent for describing places & scenes and he constructed entertaining innuendos and kinky sex scenes. The Irish writers also touches Ireland`s troubled history and fragile political situation in the 1950. ( amazon)

 

 Coincidence or not, I read two more novels also set in an arctic environment:

"Siberian Dilemma" by Martin Cruz Smith follows Moscow`s  criminal investigator Arkadi Renko, a fictional character in a series of popular crime novels. The story is set in contemporary Russia.  Putin & his comrades had replaced the Communist leaders, but the criminal investigator is still struggling with political dangers and an opaque system. The investigator is a very likable character, smart, but also stubborn and follows his cases against all political and other risks. Arkadi travels to Irkutsk, known as the "Paris of Siberia", to find his girlfriend Tanja, an ambitious journalist who is investigating the lives of 2 Russian oligarchs and oil billionaires. "Siberian Dilemma" is partly a detective story, but also a glance into the shallows of contemporary Russian economy & politics, served with a grim sense of humor & psychology. The plot has long slow moving parts, spiced with musings about modern Russia, but there are also some really scary encounters and dramatic events - perfectly developed page turners. I indulged into Smith`s intense narrations of the loneliness & beauty of the winterly taiga and could almost feel the Siberian chill. ( amazon)


"Little Siberia" by Antti Tuomainen (a finish author) is set in a tiny Finish town close the Russian border in the middle of a severe winter. The story is told in first person. The narrator is a priest, but a very untypical cleric, almost agnostic, with military combat  & martial arts experiences.  A meteor hits, a tiny piece of metal, worth about a million euro. Many people need this money and try to get the meteor which starts a chain of incidents. The novel is full of surprises & violent actions,  served with dark humor. I enjoyed Tuomainen`s style, the weird characters and his depiction of the deeply frozen town & environment. ( amazon )

"Real Life" by Adeline Dieudonné tells the story of a girl who has to grow up with a brutal father: "A big game hunter, a powerful predator, and a mother, who is submissive to her husband´s violent demands" . The debut novel by the Belgian author is told in first person by a girl who is about 10 years old in the begin of the novel. The narrator reports how her life is changing over about 5 years. There is a grizzly accident which chances her and her brother`s lives ; she has encounters with neighbors and she is threaten by her red neck father, who is getting more and more violent and abusive. It turns out that this girl is highly intelligent and determined and has the gift for analytical observations. She painstakingly describes her puberty, how she cares for her younger brother and reveals her thoughts and feelings, her fears and sexual desires. "Real Life" is a glance into a dark & bizarre world and reminds my of Brothers Grimm`s sinister tales, just without witches & sorcerers. It is a horror story, spiced with violence and cruelty, but also an observation about of life, growing up and life. ( amazon)

"Death Of A Red Heroine" by Qiu Xiaolong, an exile Chinese living in the US.  The plot is set in Shanghai in 1990 and follows fictional Chief Inspector Chen Cao and his assistant Yu who investigate the death of a young woman. The investigators have to deal with China`s political situation. They - and the other characters - are still shaped by China`s history and by the terror and chaos which had ruled the country in the years after the communist revolution in 1949. Some are still trying to recover. In the 1990s the political climate has mellowed but people have still to follow the rules  of "The Party" and every action has to be political correct, a situation some "progressives" want to implement in the US. Chen acts like a chess player who does not only consider the results of his movements but also the movements of his opponents. I learned a lot about China and was highly entertained ( amazon )

  

"The Executioner Weeps" Frédéric Dard . A man meets a woman - in an unorthodox way. A story told millions of times. The plot, told in first person by an French artist and painter, is set in sunny Spain, but it gets darker and darker, giving the reader a Hitchcock feeling. I enjoyed the psychological & analytical musings,  the humorous descriptions of the landscape around Barcelona, the architecture and the locals. ( amazon)

"Eilleen" by Ottessa Moshfegh. The name giving Eilleen shares her thoughts & impressions with the reader. Her reflections are sometimes amusing, but also kinky, dark and gross. Eillen looks back on her life and reports about her youth in the 1960s when she was "strange, young and mousy". Then the narrator was single, lived in Boston with her father, whom she loathed, and she worked as a secretary in a prison for young males because "no bank would have hired her". Being unhappy with her life she thought about radical changes which brought her into a challenging situation. The novel touches topics like morbid obsessions, latent & open homosexuality, pedophilia, dysfunctional families and more. ( amazon).
 

"The Bishop´s Bedroom" by Piero Chiara. An Italian in his thirties has a little sailboat and likes to travel all over the Lago Maggiore, a lake shared by Italy & Switzerland on the southern edge the Alps (Alpen). He becomes friend with Orimbelli who invites him into his mansion on the lake`s shore and later joins his travels. They share a lot fun, but then things are changing. I indulged into the descriptions of the various travels on Lago Maggiore and the frequent visits of the restaurants around the lake. They woke my appetite to stay there sometimes and to dine in the frequently mentioned places. The plot, set in the year 1946, a year after WWII, is humorous, sometimes  hilarious and spiced with psychology. I liked the style which seems conservative today but has a lot of charm. ( amazon)

 

I have been reading science fiction since I was a boy. The genre inspires my thinking. Everybody should read scifi:

 

"And Shall Machines Surrender" by Benjanun Sriduangkaew. The young author from South Thailand tells a very special version of a distant future - with strong Asian & female aspects. The plot is set on an exotic & luxurious world called Shenzen Sphere, an artificial planet which circles around a red star. Shenzen is a future Byzantium with complex rules, a fascinating and a kind of baroque world. Shenzen Sphere is created and controlled by AIs. Some citizens, members of a chosen elite, incur a symbiotic relationship with an AI, which turns them almost into half-gods, but there are problems. The merge of humans & AIs into highly complex powerful & dangerous persons is a fascinating idea. I indulged into Sriduangkaew´s utopia, or is it a dystopia and her wonderful descriptions of images, sceneries & food. And I love the names of her characters, like "Nataku Contemplates a Flight of Sparrows" or "Benzaiten in Autumn" (referring to a Japanese goddess). Who else gets such ideas? "And Sriduangkaew`s universe is dominated by interesting & strong women. I would like to visit this place. (amazon )

Besides novels I browsed a lot collection of scifi short stories.

 "The Year`s Top Hard Science Fiction Stories No. 4" edited by Allan Kaster offers many stories which are optimistic and deliver a "we can do it" message. They are pro science, pro technology and pro progress.
The anthology has 2 gems at least: "At the Fall" by Alec Nevala-Lee. The story follows Eunice, a smart aquatic creature equipped with an artificial intelligence. Eunice was developed by scientists who want to protect the fauna on the ground of the ocean ground which might be endangered by mining rare metals. "At the Fall" blends lots of chemistry and ocean biology with a gripping story (this is a spoiler free blog).
"This is Not the Way Home" by Greg Egan. Aisha had won a trip to the moon where she is supposed to stay a week, but complications arrive. The Australian author wrote a thriller based on physics & mechanics with a lot information about possible live on moon. (amazon )

 I also enjoyed the anthology:"Alien Dimensions Science Fiction Short Stories #18" which contains 9 short stories by different authors. My favorite take is "Gene - Reality" by Neil A. Hogan. A very smart scientist is tinkering with superstrings, the basic elements of our universe (as far as we know), also called the "genes of the universe". Guess what will happen? The very short story (just 4 pages) is a real masterpiece and Isaac Asimov would have been proud of it. 

I also like "Titan´s Spores" by Olga Werby.  Three people are flying to Jupiter moon Titan to start terraforming the trabant. They have colonies of genetic engineered fungi on board which should change the moon`s atmosphere, but ........ .The collection has another strong horror story: "The Pride of Tau Ceti" by Gustavo Bondoni. A spaceship has suddenly stopped on an interstellar flight! Weird things are happening now, leading to sheer horror. (amazon )

The collection "Spring into SciFi" 2019 edition contains 13 short stories by different authors. There are 4 gems at least:
"Pause" by Sam Fletcher. A family has a device which can pause time, but it can be used once in lifetime. The user can move freely around over 24 hours her personal time, while everything else is frozen. There are almost infinite ways to use this device and sometimes it can be extremely valuable. Do the protagonists waste this chance? A thrilling little fairy tale about a fascinating philosophical topic.

"Agents of Evolution" by Elizabeth Hosang. An intelligent software program, which works as an autonomous search agent on the Internet, got the order to find another intelligent program, a military logistics agent, which got lost on the World Wide Web. The story is told in first person by the AI, who painstakingly explains all the barriers it had to cross. A fascinating glance into how an AI might think and shows what hard science fiction can deliver these days.

"The Candle In the Window"  by Andrew Sweetapple. The plot begins as a kind of old fashioned adventure story but turns suddenly in something very futuristic. Amazing! (amazon )

The collection "Sleeps with Angels" with stories by Dave Hutchinson is full of funny ideas, a kind of weird future-punk. My favorite is the story "The Incredible Exploding Man". The author bends quantum physics & the "Many Worlds Theory" into a hilarious plot.  Even Philip K. Dick would have been proud of such a story. (amazon )

Sometimes I got tired by fiction and I need something a bit more real. Below my favorite nonfiction of 2020:

 

"Venice - Pure City" by Peter Ackroyd describes how the Mediterranean place evolved over the times. The book is written like a biography, a pleasure to read and highly informative. Ackroyd informs the reader in an entertaining way about Venice´s economy, architecture, art, cuisine, fashion, social life, her struggle with enemies & competitors, and much more. I learned that Venice was once a partner of Byzantium, the second capital of the Roman empire, but it became a rival and eventually overtook the regional leadership as Byzantium`s power declined. Venice benefited from a strong fleet of merchandise ships and a navy which bullied competitors like Genoa out of the lucrative trade routs. Therefore Venice could control there extremely profitable trade with spice to the rest of Europe with an enormous surcharge, which turned the city into an incredibly rich metropolis. (amazon )

 

The biography "Elizabeth I" by Anne Somerset explains why this queen become so famous. During her reign the queen was immense popular and she returned the love of her subjects. Maybe her popularity was based on a pleasant personality. She enjoyed the "bath in the crowd", she  liked to tease and to flirt and she indulged into elegant word plays, dancing, fashion & music and she promoted theater (including William Shakespeare). 

 Elizabeth wasn`t a great politician. She often was irresolute & driven by emotions and seemed to be obsessed with some of her favorites who got away with almost anything, including the Earl of Essex, who later in his career led a rebellion against her (for which he got eventually executed). The Queen frustrated her secretaries, advisers & councillors like William Cecil, 1st Baron Burghley, and Walsingham, by ignoring their advises or procrastinating her decisions sheer endlessly and often she changed her mind and canceled decisions. It seemed that she felt more enmity towards her councillors than she did against her arch enemy Philip of Spain. Elizabeth´s indecision was partly caused by her frugality. She aimed to avoid high expenses - for example for military actions - which would have caused higher taxes (which in turn might  have supported her popularity).  

It is an open question of Elizabeth was either a lover of peace & harmony or weak & incompetent. She possessed certainly intelligence, charm and willpower and she had a lot luck by having a long life, strong health, support of competent people and being able to avoid to be assassinated or executed. (amazon )

Robert C. Allen, the author of "Global Economic History - A Very Short Introduction",  tries to explain why the world is divided into rich & pour countries. I find Allen`s explanations interesting and I am impressed how many facts he collected, processed and displayed. The little book is spiced with a lot of valuable tables & charts about standards of living,  national incomes (GDPs) and other economic data of the past. If you want to know how much a Florentine worker earned in the 17th century or how workers in London thrived in the 18th century, this is the book for it. I was impressed how dynamical the living standards in the Western World spiked in the recent 3 centuries - a real explosion.The book is part of the impressive "A Very Short Introduction" library by Oxford University Press  oxford ) ( amazon).

 

Enjoy!

 

Economics: Why The New President Needs To End Trump`s Trade War As Soon As Possible

(Drivebycuriosity) - The US is waiting for the new President. What will he change?  Will he end Trump`s trade war against China? The US economy is still suffering from the massive tax hikes on Chinese products and the blockade of Chinese imports and companies (Huawei). The trade war has been restraining economic growth in the US since 2018 and made the Covid-19 recession even worse. 

Trump`s tariffs made imports from China, including apparel, hardware, furniture, electronics and toys, more expensive, hurting especially families with low incomes, but all Americans got poorer. Trump`s tariffs work like taxes, therefore they are sucking a lot of money out of consumer`s wallets, eventually reducing even purchases of US products.  

Higher prices for many imported goods, including Aluminum & steel, are also harming US car producers and many other industries, which rely on cheap primary products. US farmers lost markets because China bought less corn, wheat & fewer pork from the US as a retaliation. The trade war - especially the blocking of Huawei -  disconnected complicated international supply chains, cut exports by the American chip industry and reduced foreign  investments into the US. As result the trade war destroyed many American incomes & jobs.

If the new President would restore diplomatic and economic relationships with China both economies would get a push which also would lift the global economy - a win-win situation.

 

Books: Snow by John Banville

 (Drivebycuriosity) -  John Banville belongs to the most interesting contemporary authors (wikipedia ). The Irish writer also publishes under his pen name Benjamin Black. I enjoyed his historic novel "Wolf on a String" (published as Black  my review ) and "Kepler", a mix between biography and fiction (Banville review). I also liked "Christine Falls",  the start of a series of crime novels around the Dublin coroner Quirke (review ).

I just finished the newest Banville novel: "Snow" (amazon). The plot is set in the Republic of Ireland in the 1950s - under the ban of a severe winter. A Catholic priest, who was guest in a remote country house, has been murdered and castrated.  Detective Inspector Strafford arrives there from Dublin and starts his investigation (this is spoiler free blog). 

Even though the ending wasn`t really surprising (regarding the reputation of Catholic priests ) I love this book. As the title suggests, very winterly conditions play an important role and the reader gets immersed into an arctic setting - streets like glass, forests & houses covered with ice - which give the book a kind of fairy tale touch.

 Detective Strafford is smart, analytical and likable and I enjoyed his slow & methodical investigation and how he fights with the arctic conditions. The other characters are often weird & dubious. Banville certainly dislikes priests and the Irish Catholic Church and he shows again his talent for describing places & scenes and constructing entertaining innuendos and kinky sex scenes. He also touches Ireland`s troubled history and fragile political situation in the 1950. The novel belongs to the best I have read in the recent years.

Stock Market 2021: Optimism & Patience Will Pay Again

 (Drivebycuriosity) - The begin of a new year is the time to look back and ahead as well. 2020 was outstanding. I suppose in March, when the S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, had suddenly nosedived around 30%, not many expected that the index will end the weird year with a gain of  16% -  closing on an all-time high. It´s fascinating and impressive how fast the market overcome the new crisis. 2020 proved again that optimism & patience pay off - and so does investing with a long term horizon.

 

 

 

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The rally isn`t unexpected, I had explained this phenomena in some blog posts (March 25  June 8   August 19  September 8). As usual the market looks ahead. The corona pandemic, which is still spiraling in the US & Europe, will end this year thanks to a variety of vaccines. I am impressed that their creation needed less than one year, another sign how strongly the accelerating technological progress is improving our lives - and one of the reasons for the current optimism.

The stock market benefits of course from the huge government stimulus programs, almost zero interest rates & cheap oil. But much more important - and sustainable - are the tailwinds from the accelerating technological revolution which are spurred by the Covid-19 crisis. Internet - and other software applications - are helping everyone to deal with lockdowns and social distancing. Microsoft`s CEO Satya Nadella said that “two years of digital transformation took place in two months” ( microsoft ). The CEO of Bill.com, an online clearing service, said: "We believe the ongoing pandemic has accelerated the need for businesses to focus on digital transformation” (seekingalph). 

The Covid-19 Pandemic changed many habits. The crisis forces many people to work, learn, shop, educate & entertain themselves from home which is fostering digitization and raising efficiency & productivity of the economy ( driveby ). Online sales worldwide are surging, more people are working from home, they are binge watching Netflix & Amazon Prime, listening via Spotify, reading Kindle books, surfing Facebook & Twitter and businesses are running more & more on cloud computing. Not only consumers are changing, corporations adapt as well. We are witnessing an accelerated shift toward digital technologies that are faster, less expensive, more productive and raise creativity. 

I suppose that the stock market will continue the climb this year and beyond. Maybe we are at the begin of a new Roaring Twenties, comparable to the boom phase which happened during the 1920s years after the Spanish Flu. Companies restructured and reduced costs crisis significantly during the recessions of the years 2001/02 & 2008 and the current in order to survive. When Covid-19 is defeated they will be much fitter and more efficient than before. I believe that this learning process will continue and will translate into a long term trend of rising company profits & stock markets. Optimism & patience will pay again.

Happy New Year!