Economy: Hillary Clinton`s Drug Plan Is A Bad Idea

(Drivebycuriosity) - Hillary Clinton wants to limit the prices for prescription drugs, if she becomes president of the US ( cbs  twitter). I think this is a bad idea.

The Clinton campaign notes "too many American families and seniors are being squeezed by rising drug costs" (cbs). Maybe this populist formulation will get her more votes. But her claim is just gibberish. People are getting older thanks to the rising life expectancy and a better health care. The flip side of the extended life spans are "the rising drug costs". The older you get, the more medical care you need and the more pills you will consume.

There is another reason for "rising drug costs".  The pharma industry has been developing a lot new pills which help to make life - especially in an advanced age -  better. But the more pills are available - and get prescribed - the higher are the expenses for these drugs alltogether.

Clinton ignores that pills save in many cases the high costs of long treatments, including expensive hospital stays, in some cases the pill spares liver transportations which cost triple-digits amounts. And pills often expand the life of the patients and raise the life quality of the patients and their families.

Clinton also ignores that drug companies have to invest a lot of money and take high risks to develop a new pill. Every pill on the US market has to be approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) who requires a painstaking process of clinical trials which could last years and cost millions of dollars (wikipedia). Usually a new pill has to run through 3 test phases. Each phase could be the end of drug development (sudden death) if the new pill has  too strong side effects - real or alleged - or other risks.

A pill who "survives" the clinical test program has to reward the drug company for taking risks and to compensate for those drugs who didn´t make it. The Oscar awarded movie "Dallas Buyer`s Club" (driveby) deals with the struggle between people who want to use a new life saving drug and the FDA who doesn´t approve the medicament. The film is not only highly entertaining, it also shows how unforgiven and stubborn the FDA fights against new medicaments even when they can save the lives of many. This rigidity raises the costs and risks of creating a new pill substantial and is a main cause for high prices.

We all benefit from new and better medicaments. Today average life spans and life quality are much better than a century ago, partly thanks to pills which have been created in this timespan. Many diseases like diabetes can be controlled or even cured. High profits encourage the drug companies to research and to develop more and better pills, expanding our expectancy of life.

Clinton´s cap on pill prices could slow research and could cap health care, life expectancy and life quality.

Photography: Summerly Impressions From Hudson River, New York City

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - New York´s summer comes to an end. My wife and I used the great weather in the recent months for some walks & picnic along and at the Hudson River front in South Manhattan. There are parks with lawns and scenic boardwalk. I used the occasion to collect some pictures. I post here my favorite impressions

In this area the Hudson mingles with the ocean. At the horizon you can see the skyline of Jersey City.

The nice scenery attracts a lot of runners & walkers.

Sometimes you can spot a regatta

and there a a lot of sailing and other boats of course

The city spend some money for a nice sculpture

At dusk you can admire gorgeous sunsets

Enjoy!

Economy: The Party Begins

(Drivebycuriosity) - Pessimism rules. The Fed postponed the expected interest rate hike and the website Business Insider provokes with the headline "The party is over" and claims that the global economy is so bad that there is a chance that stocks could crash 50% from here (businessinsider).

I disagree. I  believe that the party will begin soon. I assume that the global economy is at an inflection point and that economic growth rates will pick up worldwide.

The reason: Oil & and other commodities are much cheaper than in the recent years and interest rates  are still close to zero. This situation reminds me of the period 1985 through 2000. Then cheap oil and other commodities combined with falling interest rates created a decade with strong economic growth and the Dow Jones climbed from 1,000 point to 10,000 points ( ritholtz).

Today oil costs around 60% less than at its peak last year, US gasoline prices are around one dollar cheaper than one year ago (fuelgauge) and other commodities are much cheaper as well (bloomberg).  Consumers have more money to spend, they are also benefitting from a tightening job market: Weekly jobless claims are on a historical low level, the job openings are on a record high (stlouisfed), the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% (economics) and wages started to climb (marketwatch). 



                                                     Fortunate Combination


I think that a fortunate combination of job growth, climbing wages, low interest rates (mortgages) and much cheaper commodities will stimulate the US retail sales & demand for services - the consumer spending, which is the engine of the economy. The consumers in Europe, Japan and in China are benefitting from the collapse of the commodity prices as well. Therefore I expect stronger consumer spending in all important regions of the world. More consumer spending translates into a stronger demand for manufactured goods & services and should be the trigger to rekindle the sluggish global economy.

Let the party begin.

Stock Market: In A Limbo

(Drivebycuriosity) - The US stock market is in a limbo. Yesterday the S&P 500, the gauge for the US stock market, dropped 1.6%, the Dow Jones lost 290 points. The market responded very negatively to the Fed´s indecision from Thursday (driveby).

Yesterday`s response was very unusual. In the past stock markets dropped when the Fed had RAISED the interest rates. Dovish statements like this week´s Fed commentary usually induced gains on the stock market. For months the market had been preparing for an interest rate hike, the raise was already priced in. The uncertainty if the Fed hikes or not caused a lot of anxiety and turbulences. Now the market has to wait six more weeks until the next Fed meeting (October 27-28).

Yesterday´s drop suggest that a rate could have started a new rally because it would have created clarity and would have been interpreted as a sign of confidence. Instead the indecision will continue the uncertainty which has been troubling the financial markets for months. There is a high risk that anxiety and turbulences will continue through end of October.  I think the markets will stay nervous as they are.

The Fed´s indecision shows that the authority is pessimistic. It seems that the market - hedge fund managers and other professional money managers - is naive and believes that Janet Yellen & Co. have superior knowledge. They don´t, they just made a mistake (I explained the reason for a hike here driveby). So the Fed raised the already high level of pessimism.

I suppose that in the coming weeks the economic news - including US retail sales and job market and from China´s economic front (driveby) - will refute the Fed and may raise the likelihood of an interest hike in the last October week.

Contemporary Art: The Magic Of Imagination @ Governors Island Art Fair 2015

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - If you are an art lover and near New York you might go to Governors Island this weekend. The tiny island, which is just a short ferry ride south of Manhattan, has the Governors Island Art Fair 2015 on every weekend this September. The organizers gave 100 artists 100 rooms to decorate which lead to a fascinating kaleidoscope of contemporary art and shows the magic of human imagination.

Some days ago I reported about my impression from my first visit  there (driveby). Last weekend I came back and completed my tour. Here are my favorites from this visit. As usual are very subjective selection.

Above you can see the series "Water Fictions" by Ed Grant ()studio2g.. The artist started "with simple photographies of water". Then he manipulated the images with a special software ("pixel sorting script) and painted the results on canvas.

I am also fascinated by the atmospheric paintings by Hannah Hill (hannahhill), mostly oil and charcoal on primed paper.

These cute girls by Joohee Park aka Stickymonger (stickymonger) remind of the works by Margaret Keane (driveby).

Jaynie Crimmins (jayniecrimmins) created these sculptures, called "external factor", made with shredded household mail over armature, mounted on paper

These "Ceramic oddities" are the work by Sarah Louise Davey (davey).

Olalekan Jeyfifous (vigilism) build these "houses".

In Fort Jay (wikipedia) you can see some hightech installation, including these light projecting installation by Matt Brand (zintaglio).

 Enjoy!

Contemporary Art: William Buchina - Time To Speak A Human Language @ Garis & Hahn Gallery, New York

 

(Drivebycuriosity) - New York´s autumn gallery scene is simmering. There are so many impressing shows to see. The gallery Garis & Hahn & on Manhattan´s traditional Bowery (garis) has a fascinating new exhibition: "Time to Speak a Human Language" by William Buchina (through October 10, 2015). The show is a must for connoisseurs of contemporary art.

The artist, who graduated in communications design in 2001, has over the course of his career collected materials from books, the web, and corners of attics. He arranged his collections to collages which he used as models for the paintings shown in this exhbition.

The paintings, which are all called  "Time to Speak a Human Language" (with a distinguishing number) are mostly acrylic on canvas. You can see influences from surrealism and from pop art. I show here my favorites from this exhibition, as usual a very subjective selection.

 Let the pictures speak for themselves.

                           The Magical Nest

                  The Detail And The Whole

                                                   

                          Funny Compositions

Enjoy!