Economics: Why Does (Almost) Nobody See The Real Bubbles?

 (Drivebycuriosity) - There is a lot talk about bubbles.  Usually people "see" bubbles on the stock market.  There is still a lot ado about the infamous "Dotcom Bubble" from the years 1999/2000. But nobody seems to notice where the real bubble happened, though it is obvious. Take a look on the images below:

 

  

 

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The first image displays the 30-years development of the oil price (represented by the future for Brent, the bench mark for the international oil market). As you can see the oil price peaked in 2008 on $147 - and never recovered. Today the oil price hovers around $80 - almost 50% below the 2008 peak. Was that a bubble or not? 

Unfortunate speculators, who bought the US oil fund (USO), an ETF which follows the price of oil, at the 2008 peak for around $900,  lost about 90% (image below). Apparently the 2008 oil price peak was the mother of all bubbles.

The second image shows the 30-years development of the Nasdaq, which represents technology stocks. In March 2000 the Nasdaq index peaked at 5,048 points. Today the index hovers around 15,500. So the average value of Nasdaq stocks tripled since the so-called Dotcom Bubble. 

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I doubt that the Nasdaq peak from 2000 deserves the moniker bubble. Yes, early 2000 the market got way ahead of it self. Apparently the market already anticipated the huge progress of Internet and other software incarnations we are experiencing since around 2010. Today´s accelerating digital transformation of the economy (e-commerce, social networks, cloud computing, Artificial intelligence, mobile internet etc) is the base for the enormous gains of technology stocks.
The technology rally since around 2010 is the reward for those who are patient and have a long-term horizon.

In contrast the 2008 oil price peak was just fad.